Welsh Grand National 2022 Tips: Ante-Post Preview for Chepstow

Chepstow hosts its biggest meeting of the year on the 27th December, which is headlined by the Welsh Grand National, and promises to be another great day’s racing over the Christmas period. 

This 3m 6½f chase plays a huge part in the Festive calendar and is recognised as one of the most notable marathon chase events in the whole of the National Hunt season. With the frost now behind us, it is a race we can all look forward to. 

Who is the favourite for the Welsh Grand National? 

Venetia Williams has won this twice in the past and out of her last 18 runners in this war-of-attrition event within the last 20 years, she has seen seven of those make the frame plus one returned a winner. Venetia, categorically, has a good record in this race and her main hopeful for this year’s race is Quick Wave - who has emerged as the 5/1 favourite.

The market leader shot to the front of the betting after an impressive victory in the London National and has clearly improved since coming back from a wind operation. The nine-year-old mare has looked the best she's ever been on her last two outings since the wind operation, as before her form was only moderate, though she did win twice, albeit on heavy ground against exposed rivals. 

However, she has come alive this year and returned from an 11-month absence to route her opponents in the London National by four lengths plus, relishing the step up in distance to 3m4f. Her performance can be upgraded to some extent, given she was hampered by a loose horse and didn’t jump that great either. 

She could be well-suited to this race and won’t lack stamina but is she worthy of being favourite in a race as warm as this? I’m not quite so sure, especially knowing that her jumping will be put to the test here and she might prefer rainfall to arrive to be seen to best effect, though it’s looking likely it will be soft or worse. 

I recognise that she has the right age, weight, hails from a yard who do extremely well in these sort of events and is “well-in” at the weights but she doesn’t appeal to me at her single-figure digits and I am quite keen to oppose her in the context of such a warm race with better value further down the ante-post market with firms. 

Ask Me Early not to be underestimated 

With the bookmakers installing Quick Wave as the clear favourite, a lot of punters will also fancy the chances of the Harry Fry-trained Ask Me Early, who’s available at 8/1, as this grey has a pretty excellent strike-rate under rules and has won three of his six chase starts plus three of his four starts at Chepstow which is valuable experience heading into this assignment. 

Furthermore, he’s won both his chase events at the track and was fancied to run well in last season’s edition of this race, only to be taken out at a late stage due to a fall in training. He returned from a longish absence to finish a good third in the Badger Beer at Wincanton and has been aimed at this race again for the last 12 months. 

The eight-year-old has yet to race beyond 3m1f but he’s shaped like a thorough stayer in the making and the form of his latest third has taken a significant boost by the winner Le Milos, who followed up in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury next time. With the course holding no issue and with the likelihood of getting into this race off a handy weight, he has each-way possibilities. 

The Galloping Bear an interesting possible runner

Ben Clarke has undoubtedly had many ups and down since getting his jumps licence in September last year but his The Galloping Bear (8/1 for the Welsh National), firmly put him on the nap last season when he impressively brushed aside course-specialist Bristol de Mai in the Grand National Trial at Haydock. 

Unfortunately, he ended up being disqualified due to a banned substance but it was clear this horse relished the conditions and the distance as he just galloped resolutely to beat what was a good field. The nine-year-old is basically four-from-four over fences and returned with a good effort over hurdles when third at Carlisle last time. 

That run is likely to have been used as a preparation run for this race in particular. After being targeted at the race last season only to be unable to take his chance after an unsatisfactory scope, Ben will be hoping he can gain some compensation here with this ultra-likeable stayer. 

That latest return should have tuned him up for a tilt at the Welsh National and his mark of 140 makes him well-handicapped. If the ground is soft or worse, he must be considered as a huge threat and is probably the one I like the most of the three towards the top of the betting here. 

Truckers Lodge an outsider to consider 

Horses for courses can also play a huge factor into the outcome of this race, especially for those each-way punters who seek something at large odds as some horses who have tackled the Welsh National previously have returned to the race and run well to make the frame. 

The one horse who jumped off the page to me once the weights were unveiled and the entries were released was the Paul Nicholls-trained Trucker’s Lodge, available at 25/1 with most bookmakers. This 10-year-old has ran in this race three times, finishing 2nd, 7th and 3rd in the last three renewals.

He came unstuck off a mark of 155 in the re-scheduled 2020 renewal early last year when only 7th but ran a fine race to finish 3rd in last season’s contest behind Iwilldoit off a mark of 150. That effort, in essence, was a good one in defeat as he would have finished closer without a bad mistake four out.

It was a credit to his ability that he kept going afterwards to take the third spot as fundamentally all but five horses were pulled up in the race. He didn’t show much on his return at Haydock but he’s a horse who’s always needed his first run of the season and he’ll be fitter for the run no doubt plus he’ll be a lot better off at the weights with last year’s winner. 

The Tizzards set to rely on The Big Breakaway 

The Tizzard family will hope for a perfect Christmas as The Big Breakaway, priced up with firms at 16/1, is expected to go in search of landing the biggest race in the Welsh racing calendar, named in the honour of Tizzard’s sister, Kim Gingell. 

The seven-year-old ran a super race at Haydock when he was narrowly beaten by a head on his seasonal debut to Venetia Williams’s Fontaine Collonges in November and this race has been the plan for him for quite some time. 

He has a lot of talent and has proved that on several occasions, including when second in a Grade 1 at Kempton as a novice and was the only horse able to live with Monkfish at the Cheltenham Festival last year. He is a good horse in his day, his confidence has now been restored and that latest return ought to have blown away the cobwebs. 

He won his only previous visit to Chepstow and a mark of 144 underplays his unquestionable capabilities. If his stamina lasts out, he easily could run the race of his life here with Brendan Powell in the plate. 

Welsh Grand National Ante-Post Tips 

Additionally, the handicapper has reduced TRUCKER’S LODGE (best price 25/1) mark another four-pounds to a mark of 141 from 145 since his reappearance, which effectively now sees him nine pounds lower than his third in this last season. This will be the lowest mark out of the four times he would have compete in the race and I think this has probably been the plan for a while. 

He is likely to sneak into this race off a nice racing-weight too, especially if Royale Pagaille is declared to shoulder top-weight and will appreciate whatever the conditions are. Either way, he must have an excellent chance of making the frame again for the champion trainer and the general 25/1 about his chances makes him a reasonable each-way bet here.

Tizzard Snr famously won the Welsh National twice with Native River in 2016 and Elegant Escape in 2018 and with this being the first time his son Joe has held the sole trainer’s licence, I cannot resist the available odds about THE BIG BREAKAWAY (best price 16/1). He has a touch of class and this stamina-testing event could be right up his street. 

He has a lot of smart form to his name despite his past setbacks and is well-handicapped off 144. His preparations for this race have gone according to plan and this could be the time he finally comes of age with the right profile in terms of age, form, his connections record in the race and conditions expected to suit. He ran a perfectly respectable trial last time when marginally denied into second and will be fitter for it. He has an each-way shout in a typically wide-open renewal.