King George VI Chase 2022: Tips, Runners & Prediction at Kempton

With four Grade 1’s on the card, due to the rescheduled Long Walk Hurdle being added to the fixture, the Boxing Day line-up at Kempton is nothing short of quality. The Ladbrokes King George VI Chase at 14.30pm, however, is the main dish of the seven races and champion trainer Paul Nicholls will be looking to claim an unprecedented 13th win in the race. 

He has red-hot favourite Bravemansgame who will also be joined by stablemates Hitman and Frodon, while Envoi Allen will make the travel over from Ireland plus Venetia Williams’ L’Homme Presse adds further spice to what is an excellent renewal. Let’s take a closer look at this year’s field and hope to identify the winner.

King George 2022 Runners

Ahoy Senor

• Trainer: Lucinda Russell
• Jockey: Derek Fox 
• Odds: 25/1
• Form: 212153

 

One of the leading novices of last season, Ahoy Senor, has yet to reproduce his best form in two starts this term including when only 3rd behind Grand National hero Noble Yeats in the Many Clouds Chase at Aintree earlier this month but who’s to say he can’t improve on those efforts and go well here. 

Having initially had the option of reverting to handicap company in Wetherby’s Rowland Meyrick Chase on the same day as the King George, Lucinda Russell is keen to roll the dice with her stable-star at the highest level, who deserves his spot in the line-up given he’s a dual Grade 1 winner. 

With some skepticism as to whether this track ideally suits him in comparison to Aintree, and having finished 2nd to Bravemansgame in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase on the King George undercard 12 months ago, we cannot forget that he has beaten the favourite twice and a few of the others too. 

He will need to brush up his jumping to have any chance of turning the form around with favourite on their clash here last season but it is interesting to see connections discard the first-time headgear that was going to be applied and it is possible he will find the necessary improvement to make an impact as I don’t think we have seen the best of him yet. 

His second in the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase to L’Homme Presse was another great effort in defeat considering he jumped poorly on a few occasions. When he meets a fence on a good stride, however, he can take a length or two out of his rivals and it is possible Derek Fox will try to ensure this race is run at a good gallop. 

On the balance of his overall form, and the pick of his best form, suggests he can easily outrun his large odds here. He is a very generous price for a horse who’s danced at the highest level several times and obliged twice. Lucinda Russell is never afraid to shy away from a challenge either. 

Bravemansgame 

• Trainer: Paul Nicholls
• Jockey: Harry Cobden
• Odds: 2/1
• Form: 111141

 

It is difficult to knock the credentials of favourite - Bravemansgame, which are obvious to see, given he has won five of his six chase starts, including a Grade 1 over course-and-distance on this card last year. That said, and from what I have seen of him, I am surprised he is as short as he is for this or perhaps I am reading into this too much. 

For instance, he clearly wasn’t anywhere near his best when beaten by Ahoy Senor at Aintree in the spring and I get the impression he is the sort of horse who can throw in the odd lacklustre performance when you least expect it, though L’Homme Presse was equally disappointing in that race too, so maybe he just had an “off-day” but it leaves an anxious feeling about his chances here. 

He did, however, return with a smooth success in the Charlie Hall when seeing off Eldorado Allen who was conceding him 3Ib but he didn’t really stride clear as most anticipated once Ahoy Senor began to pedal at Wetherby last time when looking like he would bolt up by 10-length plus after jumping the second last fence, only to come home just over three-lengths in front of the eventual second.

I just get the feeling that given how well he travels into his races, especially the ones he has won over fences, he would be winning by a wider-margin but that just hasn’t been the case, though. We can make an exception at this meeting last year when putting seven-length plus between himself and the remainder of the field, though the 3rd and 4th were tailed off so again the form is questionable. 

If you take his performance at Wetherby at literal face value, which is acceptable of course as he looked good to the eye, then I can see why punters have latched onto him but when you read into the form a bit deeper, you will notice the runner-up was subsequently beaten 11 lengths by Protektorat in the Betfair Chase, so the form is hardly bombproof and mixed, as a result, though he is clearly a talented individual.

Likewise to Ahoy Senor, he is a dual Grade 1 winner and is one of the finest jumpers of a fence, which is the requirement needed around this tight-flat track as there will be no hiding place in that department and one costly mistake can instantly put you on the back-foot.

His assured jumping and cruising speed will be effective around here and he conducts himself in great fashion on a race course but my gut instinct tells me something might do him for a bit of pace in the latter stages. 

It is worth noting that all of his best form has come on goodish ground as well, so if the heavens open up and it gets testing, it is likely we will see his odds will drift out slightly pre-race and the ground will ask more a lot more of his metal as he was declared a non-runner at Cheltenham in March because of the ground. If he does prove me wrong, I am happy to let him win if he does, so he won’t be for me at the odds.

 

Hitman

• Trainer: Paul Nicholls
• Jockey: Sam Twiston-Davies 
• Odds: 11/2
• Form: 223221

 

Whilst Bravemansgame is the Ditcheat handler’s main contender in the race, according to jockey bookings at least as Harry Cobden has chosen to ride the well-supported favourite, stablemate Hitman cannot be taken lightly. 

This promising youngster boasts a progressive profile and looked to be a seconditus horse before he registered a very comfortable victory at Haydock last month on favourable terms. 

A few critics are not convinced about his stamina for three-miles in this race but he’s a strong-traveller, who jumps well and should be suited to the end-to-end gallop that he is likely to get here. 

Yes he was beaten on his reappearance in the Old Roan Chase at Aintree but he ran a great race conceding lots of weight to the winner and gained a much-needed win under his belt last time when beating his three rivals by 11 lengths.

The form of his Old Roan Chase second on his return, however, reads well as he was giving the winner over two stone in weight and appears to be the type who will travel and jump well on his first attempt at three-miles plus he has the right profile for the race. 

He warrants respect of course and whilst this will be his toughest test to date, as he needs to find more to trouble the big two in the betting, the six-year-old is open to plenty of improvement and has the guidance of Sam Twiston-Davies in the saddle. 

Paul Nicholls rarely gets it wrong and Hitman might just be able to deliver on the promise he has shown to date and showcase his qualities entering unknown territory over this longer distance. I will put my trust in Paul here and hope this talented youngster can serve it up to his stablemate.

L’Homme Presse

• Trainer: Venetia Williams
• Jockey: Charlie Deutsch 
• Odds: 2/1
• Form: 111131

 

Venetia Williams trained the winner of this back in 1998 and she has an excellent chance off c capturing the prize again this year with one of the rising stars of last season - L’Homme Presse, who likewise to Bravemansgame - is five-from-six over fences with two Grade 1 wins to his name. 

He captured the Grade 1 Brown Advisory at the Cheltenham Festival in March following a smooth success in the Virgin Bet Scilly Isles Novices' Chase at Sandown where he dispatched some good horses with authority by 21 lengths including the likes of Mister Coffey and subsequent Peterborough winner Pic D’Orhy. 

He ran very flat when only 3rd behind Ahoy Senor at Aintree but he resumed winning ways on his reappearance at Newcastle when defying top-weight and a mark of 164. That success earned him a rating of 170, which sees him as the highest-rated runner in this field.

He lacks course experience but he has won three times going right-handed and he is very sound jumper, who has gears and is seemingly versatile conditions-wise. He only had over a length to spare over Into Overdrive last time, but he is sure to strip even fitter as that was his first in nearly eight-months.

The only real reason I can elude to as to why he isn’t favourite is the fact that Bravemansgame has the course-and-distance form, otherwise he should be favourite for this. It’s deadly to think he has more to come this term and with his natural pace and fluent-style of jumping likely to serve him well here, he must have a big chance.

Envoi Allen

• Trainer: Henry De Bromhead
• Jockey; Rachael Blackmore 
• Odds: 7/1
• Form: 161331

 

Envoi Allen has always been held in the highest regard from a young age and for Gordon Elliott, he managed to go unbeaten in all 11 starts, which included two Cheltenham Festival victories and many other high-profile wins. 

Since he changed hands to Henry, things haven’t been as plain-sailing, as ever since he fell when a short-priced favourite for the Marsh Novices' Chase at last year’s Cheltenham Festival he has lost that bit of invincibility about him. 

That fall seemingly knocked his confidence but he won a Grade 1 in a three-runner event over two miles and then finished third in the Champion Chase events at the Cheltenham/Punchestown Festival’s. 

His first run over three-miles proved inconclusive stamina-wise when pulled up last March but he put those doubts aside when returning with a bang in the three-mile Champion Chase at Down Royal which took his Grade 1 tally of wins to seven. 

That is quite remarkable when you consider he’s only eight and has yet to reach his peak plus this flat track should play to his strengths. He handles most ground and will relish the strong pace if hold-up tactics are applied again like last time. 

A lot of this year’s field will be desperate to get a prominent position in the early stages and if a few of these take each other on for the lead, this race might set-up for a closer and Envoi Allen might be that horse to capitalise on that possibility and add another Grade 1 to his CV. 

Frodon

• Trainer Paul Nicholls
• Jockey: Bryony Frost 
• Odds: 16/1
• Form: 147013

 

Was it really a surprise as many have recalled when Frodon won this two years ago? Definitely not in my opinion. This 11-year-old is a fan favourite and while he was only 4th in his repeat bid in this last season, he has taken the scalp of some high-class horses in his time.

His achievements include a win at the Cheltenham Festival in the Ryanair Chase three years ago alongside a victory in the Grade 1 Down Royal Champion Chase and while he isn’t getting any younger, he still a good horse and can never be written off in any race, regardless of how strong the opposition are. 

He proved he is still capable of high-class form when he defied a mark of 158 to win the Badger Beer at Wincanton on his seasonal return in early-November. He wasn’t quite at the same level when 3rd in the Betfair Chase but wasn’t disgraced and this track evidently suits him a lot better. 

This isn’t a vintage renewal by any means, so it is possible Frodon could make a bold bid and sneak into the frame if able to get the lead, though that is far from guaranteed with other confirmed pace-setters in the line-up.

Eldorado Allen 

• Trainer: Colin Tizzard
• Jockey: Brendan Powell
• Odds: 25/1
• Form: 213722

 

The Colin Tizzard-trained Eldorado Allen isn’t one to take lightly either at huge odds. The eight-year-old, who was 2nd in last year’s Arkle, has flourished since stepping up in trip to three-miles, and even beat dual winner of this race Clan Des Obeaux in the Grade Two Denman Chase at Newbury on his first try at this distance. 

That is a strong piece of form, whilst his recent 2nd in the Betfair Chase is also a strong piece of form. He was beaten 11 lengths but he ran a solid race in defeat plus his three-length second to Bravemansgame in the Charlie Hall Chase, when giving the winner three-pounds, is another solid piece of form. 

He has yet to strike at the highest level in six previous attempts and to win this race might be a tall order, especially to end that drought in Grade 1 company, but all ground comes alike to him, he stays, and it wouldn’t be at all a surprise to see him produce another good run in defeat as he is undoubtedly over-priced.

Millers Bank

• Trainer: Alex Hales
• Jockey: Johnny Burke
• Odds: 50/1
• Form: 215U22

 

It is hardly ideal arriving here with three unseats from his last eight starts but Millers Bank is still a Grade 1 winner over fences and has put together two solid runs in defeat the last two times. Alex Hales’ star horse should be ideally suited to the return to three-miles given how strongly he has been at the finish in his races over 2m4f. 

That said, he did disappoint on his first go at the trip towards the end of last season but that effort can be excused as he was probably feeling the effects from a tough campaign. He is going to need a chunk of improvement to trouble the main players here though and his latest second in the Peterborough Chase leaves him with a bit to find on collateral form. 

He appeared to always be in top gear last time and if that’s the case here, he will have his work cut out trying to keep tabs on a few of these throughout. He will probably be doing all of his best work in the closing stages again but it is difficult to see him winning this, though if he did manage to finish in the first five, I am sure connections would be satisfied with that outcome.

Royale Pagaille 

• Trainer: Venetia Williams
• Jockey: Tom Scudamore
• Odds: 20/1
• Form: 621255

 

Venetia Williams’ main hopeful is L’Homme Presse but Royale Pagaille is a good horse in his own right and he was not disgraced when 5th in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last term. He does seem to be at his best when the mud is flying though as all of his notable wins have been when the ground is soft or worse. 

Flat tracks do appear to bring out the best in him though and he produced a great-weight carrying performance to win the Peter Marsh last season off a mark of 163. He missed his intended reappearance in the Betfair Chase last month but his fitness shouldn’t be too much of an issue as he goes well fresh.

The fact that connections are taking up this option rather than the Coral Welsh Grand National is interesting to say the least. Tom Scudamore rides, who guided Thistlecrack to win this some years ago too. If the ground is soft or worse, he would have to be considered a lively outsider. 

King George VI Chase Tips & Prediction

This isn’t the strongest of King George renewals but it is still a high-class field and it is more wide-open than the market implies in my honest assessment of this illustrious Grade 1 contest. 

A prep-run has generally been crucial for this and that doesn’t bode well for Royale Pagaille plus Millers Bank and Eldorado Allen might be taken out of their comfort zone, whilst Ahoy Senor will need to improve on his two runs this season to give himself a fighting chance. 

2020 winner Frodon would have to defy the age bracket to regain his crown and that makes him vulnerable given horses aged six-to-nine have practically dominated this in recent times. He cannot be ruled out for place purposes though. 

Bravemansgame ticks a lot of boxes but he just isn’t a horse I have ever warmed to for some reason and I get the feeling something might do him for a turn of foot when push comes to shove. I might be wrong and he might well bolt up but I am happy to leave him alone at his odds.

L’Homme Presse should be favourite, as he brings some of the best chase form to the table and is open to further improvement. He is the highest-rated of these at 170 and made a successful reappearance at Newcastle. His natural pace and fluent jumping technique should serve him well but this will be his hardest test to date. 

HITMAN (best price 15/2), however, gained a confidence-booster victory last time at Haydock and while he has yet to try three-miles, and has a bit to find on ratings with the top-two in the market, he could be about to advance his form to a new level and is worth an interest at the odds here. 

He is also a very assured jumper, who travels smoothly, and should relish this flat track and end-to-end gallop. He handles most ground and Paul Nicholls wouldn’t be risking him at the age of six without experience over the trip here unless he felt he is capable of making his presence felt. He is one of two bets. 

I also like the claims of ENVOI ALLEN (best price 6/1) at a nice price. I thought he had more in hand than the winning margin indicated last-time-out on his return and should come on plenty for the run too. Henry de Bromhead has said his preparation has gone smoothly and that adds further confidence. 

A few of his rivals underperformed the last day but he looked back to something near his best as he travelled well and stuck to the task well to take the spoils. This multiple Grade 1 winner will be suited to the track, is likely to get a good pace to aim at and he remains unexposed over three-miles. He has to be the value angle.