Architect Tips takes us through the runners and gives his prediction for the New Year's Day Handicap Chase at Cheltenham.
New Year's Day Handicap Chase
New Years Day Chase Tips & Prediction
This is a very deep edition of this race, so it’s worth taking a chance on a couple of runners. II Ridoto and Midnight River have obvious claims towards the top of the market but both make limited appeal from a betting perspective in what is a high-class renewal and probably a stronger race of the Paddy Power.
Quite a few of these make the shortlist to be honest and it wouldn’t be at all a surprise to see any of them win. I do think the odds about the Colin Tizzard-trained WAR LORD (best price 11/1) are massive, as he would be pushing for favouritism here if he had finished a lot closer than third in the Grade Two Haldon Gold Cup last time.
He brings Grade 1 form to the table courtesy of his fourth in the Arkle and second in the Manifesto at Aintree last term and promises to be suited by the step up in distance. He will appreciate the arrival of rain, looks quite well-treated at the weights and will be fitter from his return run last time. He makes plenty of each-way appeal with most firms paying five places.
His stablemate LOSTINTRANSLATION (best price 40/1) is also an attractive price and worth an each-way interest too. He might not be the force of old but he will fitter from his return in last month's return in Coral Gold Cup and has fallen to a dangerous mark of 147. His form figures over 2m4f reads two wins and two seconds (all in Grade 1 or Grade 2 events) and he has an excellent record at this course.
He was third in a Cheltenham Gold Cup and is a former Betfair Chase winner and if he somehow rediscovered that sort of form, he would win this. With a lot of bookmakers paying five places, and knowing he has the course form, back-class and won’t mind a drop of rain either, this talented 11-year-old can roll back the years and produce one more big performance at Cheltenham.
Even if he gets beaten, I just think he’s unbelievable value knowing what he is capable of here if able to produce something close to his best.
My third and final dart at the race will be the Tom Lacey-trained SEBASTOPOL (best price 28/1) who took the scalp of the highly-regarded Stage Star when last spotted in a Grade 2 and he is priced up as if he fluked the race. I beg to differ, as he travelled powerfully and kept on strongly over the 2m3f trip to suggest an extra furlong won’t be an issue.
He has yet to win over this distance but he should be suited by this big-field with lots of pace on offer. He is a very smart horse on his day, as proven last-time-out, and if he can keep the errors at bay, he has an excellent chance of at least making the frame and can’t be underestimated in what is a fantastic renewal. Five places widely available.
