Friday Racing Tips from Andy Holding

CREBILLY (best price 2/1) left the impression he may have added to his previous Newcastle success had he not made a couple of untimely errors at the last two hurdles here last time out and even though today’s race arguably has more strength in depth, Jonjo O’Neill’s gelding should still be up for the challenge.

A smooth winner on hurdles debut at the Gosforth Park venue back in December, the six-year-old was understandably a strong choice with many punters to follow up over today’s C&D a month later but despite travelling like the best horse in the race for nine tenths of the journey, he somehow let the race slip through is fingers.

A slow jump at the second last ended up handing a big advantage to his main market rival Liberty Hunter and even though he did his best to rectify the damage in the latter stages, it was a battle that he ultimately couldn’t quite overcome.

That said, the pair pulled well clear of the rest and, with today’s slightly better ground likely to play more into the hands of a horse who has a good cruising speed and nice turn of foot, he’s fancied to make up for his small blip 26 days ago.

Some promising sorts going to post for this tightly-knit novice affair and of those who have already shown a fair level of form, INCH HOUSE (best price 5/1) makes the most appeal at the morning odds.

Shaping as though the experience would do him the world of good on his rules debut at Uttoxeter back in December, the son of Ocovango was well-supported to build on that initial effort over today’s course last time out and even though he didn’t quite manage to come out on top, he did more than enough to suggest he still remain one to keep on side.

Edging to the front at the second last, it looked at that point he might hold on to claim a breakthrough success, but in the end he was just outpointed by two useful sorts in the shape of Atlanta Brave and Ed Keeper.

Given the time figure and what the winner has gone on to achieve since, there certainly no shame in getting three lengths in a race of that nature and with today’s step up in trip likely to see this former point winner in an even better light, the combination of the extra yardage and valuable track experience will hopefully stand him good stead on his return to the Welsh venue.

MONBEG GENIUS (best price 9/4) has improved each time on his three starts over fences and with the latest over today’s easily his most convincing, Jonjo O’Neill’s gelding is strongly fancied to complete the hat trick.

Impressive when upped in trip for the first time at Newcastle two starts ago, the son of Shantou was extremely strong in the market to follow up when faced with today’s C&D a month later and having travelled well throughout, he readily brushed aside his four rivals in landing the gamble.

To put a little more context to his performance, it was noticeable that not only was his overall speed figure was easily the best on the seven-race card, his final circuit time was 6.3 seconds quicker than the 2m3f chase won by Moonlighter and 9.4 better than the 2m chase an hour later.

Based on this data, it’s pretty clear we are dealing with a novice who can operate at a fair level for a stayer and even though he will have to probably perform to a similar level again on his return to the Welsh track, confidence is high he will have the necessary requirements to prove equal to the task.

MIAMI THUNDER (NAP) (best price 15/8) created a favourable impression on his debut over today’s course two weeks ago and with the step up to a mile seen as a positive move by connections, Adrian Murray’s gelding can go one place better.

Up against four opponents with previous track experience, the son of Kingman was always likely to find the task a bit of a baptism of fire, but too his great credit, he ran way beyond market expectations in pushing the promising Stormy Entry hard all the way to the line. 

Time figure-wise, the race 16 days ago worked out as one of the best on the card and with that vital experience not likely to be lost on this well-made three-year-old, he can take the step forward necessary to get off the mark at the second time of asking.

Both FIRSTMAN (best price 3/1) and Dancing Tango arrive here as progressive stayers right on top of their game, but the former makes more appeals on grounds that he might just have the better turn of foot of the pair and for that reason, he receives the vote.

Although a little tenuous, we do have a direct comparison between the pair courtesy of their performances over today’s C&D on December 21 and it reveals that Tony Martin’s inmate was superior in all departments.

Not only did the son of Zoffany manage to run a faster overall time to the tune of three seconds over the 1m4f journey, his final three furlong split of 35.0 was also quicker than Dancing Tango, who posted 35.9 from the same point. Based on those findings, it suggests the six-year-old has a better all round game and with him going on to prove his wellbeing with another smooth victory since, the hat trick bid rates a strong possibility.