Betfair Ascot Chase 2023 Tips, Runners & Prediction

Betfair Ascot Chase 2023 Tips, Runners & Prediction

The Grade 1 Betfair Ascot Chase, over two-miles-and-five-furlongs, will take place on Saturday, where last year’s winner Fakir D’Oudairies is the 5/4 favourite to repeat last year’s success. Let’s take a closer look at this year’s runners before concluding the analysis with tips and predictions for the feature race at the Berkshire venue. 

Betfair Ascot Chase Runners 

Aye Right 

• Trainer: Harriet Graham
• Jockey: Ryan Mania
• Form: 1392P4
• Odds: 50/1

 

Aye Right is a consistent chaser, who was deservedly rewarded for his consistency in last season’s Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle, where he stayed on strongly to fend off the challenge of Good Boy Bobby in a thrilling finish to the race. The 10-year-old has not been able to add to that since, but his second to Sounds Russian in the Edinburgh Gin Chase has been well-advertised since.

The winner is now considered an each-way contender in the Cheltenham Gold Cup next month having ran a career-best when second in the Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham. Aye Right was well beaten when attempting to defend his crown this year’s renewal at Newcastle but did re-emerge with a fair fourth in the Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase at Wetherby in December. 

He is the sort of horse to rely on in a handicap but he has been found out at this level in the past (beaten 37 and 61 lengths in two attempts at Grade 1 level) and it is hard to see him producing a career-best performance to end that drought on his first visit to the course. He will keep plodding on to the end but others with a bit more class have pressing claims. Furthermore, this trip is on the short side for him as well. Passed over. 

Fakir D’Oudairies 

• Trainer: Joseph O’Brien
• Jockey: JJ Slevin
• Odds: 7/4
• Form: 211521

 

The top-class eight-year-old Irish raider, Fakir D’Oudairies, defeated Two For Gold in this 12 months ago and has to be considered the one to beat in his quest to enter the history books as a multiple winner of this illustrious event. 

He was impressive at the finish in beating French Dynamite by six lengths at Thurles but his winning performance was assisted by the late fall of Haut En Couleurs, who looked the likeliest winner before his departure at the final fence. 

He had previously chased home Galopin Des Champs at Punchestown on his return and that form reads well. He is tough as nails, jumps soundly, and knows what it takes to win this race. With Allaho now unfortunately sidelined, he has been instituted as the new Ryanair Chase favourite next month, a race he finished second in two seasons ago. He handles all ground, has four Grade 1 wins to his name and should be approaching peak-fitness now. 

This year’s renewal of the race does have a deeper look about it compared to last year though but, either way, he is admirably consistent and his track-record on British soil over fences cannot be disputed, as his figures read 22111. His connections decided to miss Cheltenham last season and having landed the Betfair Ascot Chase, they waited a month for Liverpool, and it paid off deliciously with victory in the Marsh Chase. 

With Mark Walsh on the sidelines following his fall at the Dublin Racing Festival, JJ Slevin is likely to maintain the partnership with Fakir D’Oudairies after winning at Thurles on him last month. It’s quite amazing that this horse is still only eight, as he appears to have been around forever. He could actually have more to come and with the likelihood will be more alert than his latest success, he is a worthy favourite and is the one to beat. 

First Flow 

• Trainer: Kim Bailey
• Jockey: David Bass
• Odds: 22/1
• Form: 166133

 

If the going was heavy this weekend, then First Flow would be a lot shorter in the betting here. He has an excellent record at this course with figures that read 23113, plus the 11-year-old bagged his first Grade 1 at this course in the Clarence House Chase two seasons ago. He also claimed the Grade 2 Peterborough Chase later that year as well, beating subsequent winner Funambule Sivola and Eldorado Allen. 

Kim Bailey’s charge has not been at his best in two starts this year though, and the step up in trip at this level asks more of him, as he’s far from guaranteed to stay the distance. He has yet to compete beyond two-miles-three-furlongs and the ground is likely to be quicker than he would ideally want as well. Even if he does need to overcome a few queries, he cannot be underestimated and could be the value to some. 

Millers Bank 

• Trainer: Alex Hales
• Jockey: Johnny Burke
• Odds: 11/1
• Form: 15U226

 

The Alex Hales-trained Millers Bank took the Grade 1 Manifesto Novices' Chase last season, albeit a weak renewal, but this season got off to a less conspicuous start, where he unseated his rider at the first fence on his return in the Old Roan Chase. He put that aside when pushing Beauport to within half-a-length at Carlisle before chasing home Pic D’Orhy in the Peterborough Chase the next twice. 

He was flat to the boards a long way out in that race at Huntingdon, seemingly taken out off his feet when the eventual winner, who was jumping impeccably, put pressure on himself and the others. To his credit, he never gave up, sticking to the task to only be beaten two-lengths at the finish. His next start saw him tackle the King George and, admittedly, he was outclassed when a well beaten sixth but he had a couple of excuses.  

If he put in a performance like that here though, it would be hard to see him getting involved but he does have talent when everything falls into place for him and perhaps a sharpish track like Ascot back on a sounder surface might be more his cup of tea. 

He does need to improve a few pounds to trouble the market leaders and his jumping isn’t foot-perfect but he isn’t one to take lightly, especially being a Grade 1 winner with Johnny Burke booked to ride, who’s an interesting addition. 

Pic D’Orhy 

• Trainer: Paul Nicholls 
• Jockey: Harry Cobden
• Odds: 11/4
• Form: 31P111

 

The champion trainer Paul Nicholls has won this race four times since the year 2000, with the most recent winner being Cyrname in 2019, and he will solely rely on Pic D’Orhy, who has been targeted at this race since thrashing his opponents in the Grade 2 Silviniaco Conti Chase at Kempton last month. 

The eight-year-old, who won the 2020 Betfair Hurdle, struggled for consistency in the early part of his chase career, where he was habitual for making mistakes at the wrong time, which saw him hit the deck on a couple of occasions but, in this time, he still managed three wins and since early last year, he has looked a more confident and matured horse. 

He is a perfect three-for-three this season and his jumping has been flawless, attacking his fences with real conviction and confidence, which has seen his rivals struggle to lay up with him in each race. Additionally, his  only previous chase start at this course resulted in a smooth success in the Grade 2 Howden Noel Novices' Chase, so he has proven himself at the track plus conditions are likely to be in his favour this weekend too. 

Unlike a few of these, he has fundamentally strengthened in all aspects of his already established ability this season since undergoing wind surgery, which has certainly been part of the improvement and he made some pretty decent horses look bang-average in winning by 16-lengths last time. His progression has undoubtedly been evident in each of his last three starts and in his latest win, he posted a career-best RPR of 168. 

He holds an entry in the Ryanair Chase and a big performance from him this weekend would certainly see him as an each-way player for that wide-open race on day three of the Festival with Allaho’s absence. He has been stuffed in his two previous Grade 1’s but he's a better horse now and this looks a great opportunity for him to potentially land the first Grade 1 success of his career with more to come. 

Shishkin

• Trainer: Nicky Henderson
• Jockey: Nico de Boinville
• Odds: 11/4
• Form: 1111P3

 

Nicky Henderson’s Shishkin once looked unbeatable over fences and he proved his class when beating Energumene in that thrilling finish to the Clarence House Chase at this course around this time last year but since that unbelievable performance, his career has gone pear-shape, for now at least. If he stays this longer trip though, and comes back to something near his best, he could blow this field away but that is an “if” and a lot has happened since. 

The nine-year-old, a winner of his first seven chase starts, went on a 10 race unbeaten streak, which included wins the a Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, the Sporting Life Arkle, a Doom Bar Maghull Novices’ Chase, the Ladbrokes Desert Orchid Chase and a SBK Clarence House Chase before his Champion Chase disaster at Cheltenham. He simply, and evidently, never travelled from flag-fall in the Champion Chase at the Festival and was pulled up only eight fences into the race. 

Seemingly, it wasn’t the Shishkin we know and it was revealed there were a few reasons to blame for his below-par display. Not seen again until nine months later in the Tingle Creek, he finished a distant third, beaten 15-lengths by Edwardstone. 

That was more encouraging but perhaps this longer trip following some tweaks at home could be what’s needed to see him back to the force of old. On ratings, and numbers, he is a better horse than last year’s winner Fakir D’Oudairies but over this trip, I think the latter will have his measure.

This race will depend on whether he is not the horse he was or if he is a good thing at the prices, given he’s not even favourite but is rated 12 pounds higher than Joseph O’Brien’s charge. It is not impossible that he won’t scale the heights he once achieved but I’m not overly appealed to the step up in trip. If he wins though, there is no doubt he will overtake Fakir D’Oudairies at the top of the ante-post market for the Ryanair Chase. 

Betfair Ascot Chase 2023 Tips & Prediction 

Despite only six declared in the field, the Grade 1 Ascot Chase is still one of the highlights of the National Hunt season and, as expected, Fakir D’Oudairies and Shishkin dominate the betting with Paul Nicholls’ Pic D’Orhy close behind to round off the top three in the market. 

With the Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival looking very wide-open now, all three will be looking to lay down a market for that intended target. From a punting perspective, each-way backers will be restricted to only two places unless the sportsbooks offer three on the day, which is a possibility, we will see. 

Shishkin would have strong claims if he relishes the step up in trip but given the last twenty winners of this race have all won over at least two-miles-four-furlongs before this race, Nicky Henderson’s charge has this adversity statistic to overcome and Aye Right has a tough task on his hands venturing back into the big league.

While First Flow isn’t getting any younger and this former Grade 1 winner at this course would need conditions to deteriorate to be seen at his best. Alex Hales’ Millers Bank could be the surprise package at decent odds but he would need to improve significantly on his King George sixth, which wouldn’t be good enough to trouble the top three in the betting. Last year’s hero Fakir D’Oudairies has an obvious chance.

I wasn’t overly impressed with the latter last time at Thurles though, where he looked booked for a clear second until the race was handed to him on a silver platter. I thought that was a dip in performance compared to previous performances, despite the RPR suggesting otherwise. Instead, I will take a chance on PIC D’ORHY (best price 11/4) for the 2019 winning combination of Paul Nicholls, Harry Cobden and owner Johnny de la Hay. 

This eight-year-old has failed to deliver the goods in Grade 1 company previously, but he is the only horse in the field who is on an upward-trajectory this season and his smooth-travelling, front-running style will serve him well in a field he might be able to dictate. Aye Right will try to match him early doors but the former is naturally a classier horse and if Harry Cobden can get him winging his fences and consume enough of his energy for the latter stages, he could defeat the favourite.

Please note, I have tipped Fakir D’Oudairies in my ante-post tips for the Ryanair Chase, who I think will be better suited to that race even though he won this race last year. However, this weekend’s race, on the face of it, is the perfect set-up for Paul Nicholls' charge, who could be tough to overhaul from the front now that he is finally putting it all together over fences.

Furthermore, the evidence suggests he is a better horse than Two For Gold, who pushed Fakir D’Oudairies close in this last season.