Best value horses from the Cheltenham handicap entries 2023

Ultima Handicap Chase

The Big Breakaway

• Form: 23P22
• Best price: 25/1
• Trainer: Joe Tizzard

When it comes to trying to identify the winner of the Ultima Handicap Chase, the first step is to look at those horses who have previously ran well or won at Cheltenham, as the history of this race, such as results and statistics, indicates previous course form is advantageous. For instance, 12/12 winners had at least one previous run at Cheltenham, while eight of those had actually won at the course.

While a mark of 150+ can prove a difficult task in such a competitive event, the horse who does tick a lot of boxes worthy of an interest is the Joe Tizzard-trained THE BIG BREAKAWAY, who is guaranteed to handle the track, trip and conditions (ground versatile). He ran a great race when last seen, finishing second of 17 in the Welsh Grand National over three-miles-six-furlongs, and has only been raised three pounds, which in essence, is lenient.

Oscar Elite is also expected to represent the yard but with him likely to be ridden by Harry Cobden, Brendan Powell will be on this talented eight-year-old. Brendan rode the winner of this race for connections back in 2013 when he partnered Golden Chieftain and given The Big Breakaway has much more natural ability of the duo, he must have a strong each-way chance if he does line up being one of the classier horses in the field.

Let’s not forget, the last time he ran at the course was when he was a novice, in which he tried to go hammer-and-tongs with Monkfish in the Grade 1 Brown Advisory Novices' Chase, where he finished a creditable third. This is his only entry at the Cheltenham Festival, so it’s either here or the Aintree Grand National - his ultimate long-term goal, perhaps, or both. He makes plenty of appeal at generous odds with the NRNB concession taken into account.

Nassalam

• Form: 221563
• Best Price: 20/1
• Trainer: Gary Moore

Gary Moore will no doubt have a strong team to go to war with again at this year’s Festival and while the experienced, older horses generally between the age of seven and 10 have the overall best record in the race, do not be fooled into thinking the six-year-old NASSALAM hasn’t got a decent chance at double-figure odds coupled with a reasonable mark. His trainer went close in this race in 2012 with Fruity O’Rooney and he could do so again with this sole candidate in the race at this stage.

Despite only seeing two winners of his age bracket in this race for 20+ years, he has a lot of experience as a youngster and has long been on my agenda for this specific race. He ran well here the last day, where he finished a staying-on third in the Paddy Power New Year’s Day Handicap Chase and even before he ran in the Paddy Power Gold Cup when sixth at the November Meeting, I was convinced a step up in trip to more than three miles would suit the horse.

Both pieces of form have substance, especially his third behind Midnight River last time, as the fourth horse, Il Ridoto, won on Cheltenham Trials’ Day when last spotted to advertise the strength of the form. In addition, Nassalam’s mark has only been raised two pounds to 144 and there is room for improvement with his peak performances still to come. Already a better chaser than a hurdler, and this race recognised as his only existing entry, he has sound claims.

Lord Accord

• Form: 531296
• Best Price: 16/1
• Trainer: Neil Mulholland

Neil Mulholland is no stranger to success in this race either, having trained The Druids Nephew to win this race in 2015 and LORD ACCORD will be looking to hand his trainer another victory in this year’s renewal.

He warmed up for this race with a spin over hurdles in the Grade 2 Cleeve Hurdle here last month when sixth and the last time he ran at the course, over fences, he beat The Wolf over course-and-distance, who subsequently ran well to finish fourth in the Swinley Handicap Chase at Ascot.

The highlight of Lord Accord’s season, however, was his second to Frodon in the Badger Beer Handicap Chase at Wincanton. He was getting lumps of weight from the former Ryanair Chase and King George Chase winner but the fact he was the only horse able to live with him and still only be a length down and in with a chance at the last fence until he blundered it was a testament to his capabilities. He was only beaten two lengths and a repeat in the Ultima, could see him extremely competitive. He is also in the Kim Muir but I suspect this will be his intended target.

Bad 

• Form: 221 
• Best price: 25/1
• Trainer: Ben Pauling 

I’ll be honest, I am not sure if BAD goes for the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle or the Triumph Hurdle or perhaps neither and is saved for another day, but I think he would have a much better chance in the formerly-mentioned race given the Triumph does have more substance if he does feature next month. 

He is a promising youngster and after I observed his winning performance in Bordeaux, I was taken with the way he travelled and quickened away to score very easily. Looking through the entries, I could only see two standout bets at decent odds besides Tekao, who has been well-founded in the betting, and this doesn’t look like the strongest of renewals, in my opinion. 

Interestingly, he has since joined the Gloucestershire handler and his new trainer must have liked what he saw that day, hence why he’s joined his team. I would have liked to have seen him have a spin over hurdles somewhere beforehand to get a flavour of the sort of horse we could be dealing with but that doesn’t diminish my interest in him here. 

Moreover, if his connections do decide to send him to the Festival on his stable debut, they must think he has a decent chance, as they wouldn’t be throwing such a young, promising horse into the deep-end for a day out either. At 25/1 NRNB, he is surely worth a quid or two, each-way, and if he doesn’t feature in final declarations, then our stakes would be returned. 

Perseus Way

• Form: 2131
• Best price: 14/1
• Trainer: Gary Moore 

Earlier in the season, it looked as though PERSEUS WAY was going to become a leading candidate for the Triumph Hurdle and while that option remained on the table for a while, his connections however, have only entered him in the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. Transparently, his connections must think this race would be much more suitable and easier, and I am inclined to strongly agree as well, given his opening mark of 125 is really attractive. 

He has the perfect-looking profile for this type of race, as additionally, he has course form, courtesy of his eye-catching hurdles debut second to one of the leading British hopefuls for the Triumph Hurdle, Scriptwriter, in a Grade 2 here at the November meeting.

He has won two of his three starts since, including when he returned an all-the-way winner at Huntingdon last month and that victory will have teed him up well ahead of next month’s main assignment. In addition, Useful Flat performers tend to do well in this and he had some decent form on the level.

Meanwhile, his third behind Comfort Zone in the Coral Finale at Chepstow is another quality piece of form. He will be really well-suited to the strong pace on offer and, mathematically, he has the strongest form on offer of the British possibles, yet he is trading at double-figure odds, which doesn’t make any sense. He surely has plenty more improvement to come and while his stablemate Bo Zenith is lower in the betting than him, I would much rather side with this promising four-year-old, who has the class to figure. 

Yorksea  

• Form: 22414
• Best price: 20/1
• Trainer: Gary Moore

I was really taken with the way YORKSEA kept on strongly to finish fourth in the Betfair Hurdle when last spotted and. as soon as he crossed the line, my gut instinct told me he would be well-suited to a longer distance. He came from miles back that day, as even at one point in the race, it looked like was about to be detached from the main body of the field, but he stuck to his guns up the home-straight to make the frame.

His only entry at the Cheltenham Festival is the Coral Cup, over two-miles-five-furlongs, and I think he will relish the longer distance. His experience of the course will count for plenty as well, as he’s made the frame in both previous visits to the course, including on hurdles debut in a Grade 2 when third behind Knight Salute. He is an appealing each-way project here off the same mark of 126 as that Betfair Hurdle performance.

Coeur Sublime

• Form: 172F4
• Best price: 10/1
• Trainer: Henry De Bromhead

I always find the horses with a touch of class, towards the top half of the handicap, generally do well in the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase. Saint Roi is a fascinating entrant but he is most likely to go for the Arkle and, instead, the classy COEUR SUBLIME would have an excellent each-way chance should he line up here. He also holds an entry in the Champion Chase but this race is surely more winnable, even if he is required to carry a huge weight.

I fancied him for this race last season but instead, connections tackled the Arkle at last season’s Cheltenham Festival and he could only finish seventh having lacked fluency at most of his obstacles. He’s mostly been competing in Grade 1 company throughout his career though and if he does run in this handicap, it will be the first time outside of top level company at the Festival, given his three previous runs here have been in the Triumph Hurdle (second), Champion Hurdle (15th) and then his Arkle (seventh).

His head second to Blue Lord in a Grade 1 at the Punchestown Festival is a strong piece of form plus he would have beaten subsequent Grade 1 winner Gentleman De Mee next time on his return but for falling at the last fence when travelling best of the field. His latest fourth behind Blue Lord is another smart piece of form and, in the likelihood he will find this race easier, he is a standout each-way bet with the NRNB applied, just in case he does tackle the Champion Chase instead.

Fastorslow

• Form: 02255
• Best price: 14/1
• Trainer: Martin Brassil

FASTORSLOW came within whiskers of lifting the Coral Cup 12 months ago, where he was narrowly denied by a short-head to Commander Of Fleet and that was a major step forward from his two previous efforts. He then filled that same spot at the Punchestown Festival and it seems like connections are plotting another route back to the Festival with him, but this time over fences, as his two runs in this sphere have been in Grade 1 company.

He’s not been able to lay a glove in each race but his trainer has been using those races as stepping stones towards one of the big handicaps at Cheltenham in March. For proof of this, his only two entries for Cheltenham are the Ultima and the Plate, but the latter seems the best option and a mark of 147 on his handicap debut doesn’t look bad in the context of this race. All in all, I think he has been laid out for the race and makes some appeal at generous odds.

Shakem Up’Arry

• Form: 32315
• Best price: 20/1
• Trainer: Ben Pauling

I am also drawn to entry of the Ben Pauling-trained SHAKEM UP’ARRY, who went straight into the notebook with a view to the Cheltenham Festival after his eye-catching fifth of 16 in the Paddy Power New Year's Day Handicap Chase at Cheltenham last time. He was sent off favourite and while he couldn’t justify his odds, the way he jumped and travelled (travelled best) was evident and the form looks strong as well.

He looked like he was going to bolt up when they turned into the home-straight and while he weakened out of the frame after the final fence, I think the soft ground was to blame for that finishing effort plus he did race keenly due to travelling “too well”. Back on a sounder surface next month, from the same mark of 139, he could pose a serious threat. He remains well-handicapped and has a solid each-way chance for his excellent trainer.