Cheltenham Top Jockey

The Cheltenham Festival is now only days away and not only does the Festival provide betting opportunities on the horses, but there are also other ways to bet throughout the week, including markets for the top trainer and top jockey awards, with the latter being the focus point in this piece, featuring a value bet vs the favourite Paul Townend. 

At first glance, looking at the betting odds, it seems like it will be one-way traffic for heavy favourite and defending champion Townend but as racing goes, anything can happen, and there might appear to be better value elsewhere in the market. Let’s take a closer look and identify the potential value against the favourite.

Paul Townend Top Jockey Odds - 4/7

Best chances of the week:

Facile Vega, El Fabiolo, Energumene, Gaillard Du Mesnil, Lossiemouth and Galopin Des Champs

Given the star quality of Willie Mullins’ stable, it comes as no surprise to see last year’s top jockey at the Cheltenham Festival and the stable's number one rider head the market. He rode five winners last March and there’s every chance he will match that or even improve on it this time around. 

Having taken over as the main rider for the Closutton maestro when Ruby Walsh retired in 2019, Townend has already ridden an impressive 22 Cheltenham Festival winners with more to follow and the reigning champion is undeniably the one they all have to beat. 

His Cheltenham Festival will potentially start with two favourites in the first two races on the opening day, as Facile Vega goes in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, followed by El Fabiolo in the Sporting Life Arkle unless Daryl Jacob keeps the ride and then Paul will presumably ride Dysart Dynamo. 

In essence, if Paul does ride them and manage to succeed on the pair, he will no doubt be an even shorter price than he already is for the top jockey award. If he was to get beat on both, then his odds will rise and he might be better value, as some of his other best rides come later in the day and week. 

In addition, an in-play market for the top jockey award will be available with most firms, so be sure to keep an eye on the variance in price for each jockey after each race has concluded with plenty more rides to come. 

Paul’s other big rides on the first day include State Man in the Champion Hurdle, Brandy Love in the Mares’ Hurdle and Gaillard Du Mesnil in the National Hunt Chase. He could win on all of them as they all have strong chances but the reality is that won’t happen. 

On Wednesday, he could kick off the second day with victory on the exciting Impaire Et Passe in the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle, who has a tall reputation and is expected to get favourite backers off to a perfect start on the second day of the Festival. 

Later on in the day, he could be on dual Cheltenham Festival winner Sir Gerhard in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase, who won on the same day at last season’s Festival, while his big hopeful on this day will be Energumene in the Champion Chase, who bids to defend his title. 

Moving onto Thursday, day three, he is expected to ride Appreciate It in the Turners Novices’ Chase, with his other notable rides including the likes of Blue Lord in the Ryanair Chase and potentially Klassical Dream in the Stayers’ Hurdle. 

The fourth and final day of the Festival could be the deciding factor though, as another strong book of rides include either Lossiemouth and Blood Destiny in the Triumph Hurdle, Galopin Des Champs in the Gold Cup and finally Allegorie De Vassy in the Mares’ Chase. 

Seven of the horses mentioned are favourites, so while his task is to ride to the best of his ability, it would come as a major shock if he didn’t ride at least two winners out of these as an example. He has an excellent chance to defend his crown. 

Paul Townend main rides at the 2023 Cheltenham Festival

Tuesday 14th March 2023

  • Facile Vega (Supreme Novices’ Hurdle)
  • El Fabiolo/Dysart Dynamo (Arkle Chase)
  • State Man (Champion Hurdle)
  • Gaillard Du Mesnil (National Hunt Chase)

 

Wednesday 15th March 2023

  • Sir Gerhard (Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase)
  • Energumene (Champion Chase)
  • Impaire Et Passe (Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle)

 

Thursday 16th March 2023

  • Appreciate It (Turners Novices’ Chase)
  • Blue Lord (Ryanair Chase)
  • Klassical Dream (Stayers’ Hurdle)

 

Friday 17th March 2023

  • Lossiemouth/Blood Destiny (Triumph Hurdle)
  • Galopin Des Champs (Cheltenham Gold Cup)
  • Allegorie De Vassy (Mares Chase)

 

Harry Cobden Top Jockey Odds - 33/1

Best chances of the week:

Bravemansgame, Hermes Allen, Tahmuras, Stage Star, II Ridoto, Stay Away Fay, Captain Teague 

It would be fair to say the Cheltenham Festival hasn’t provided Harry Cobden with much luck in recent seasons but there is no doubt his boss Paul Nicholls heads to the meeting this time around with a pretty strong team and therefore Cobden has to come under some consideration at what is insulting odds for a jockey riding as well as ever this season. 

It has been four years since Harry Cobden last tasted success at the Festival, courtesy of Topofthegame in what is now the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase. With the likes of leading Cheltenham Gold Cup contender Bravemansgame and Hermes Allen, who is favourite for the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle among his rides next week, he must have an excellent chance of an overdue winner in the Cotswolds.

He came close to getting a winner last year when Bell Ex One was unlucky in the Boodles (Juvenile Handicap Hurdle). Despite not being able to find himself in the winners’ enclosure as often as many would have expected at the Festival, he is still riding with plenty of confidence and his big hope of the week is Bravemansgame in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, the feature race of the week. 

He was last seen winning the Ladbrokes King George VI Chase at Kempton Park in great style and has as good a chance as Galopin Des Champs does when the pair cross paths next week. He has his stamina to prove over the extra yardage but so too does the favourite and this three-time Grade 1 winner could be up to the task ahead. 

He has been specifically trained for the race and I can see him giving Cobden a great spin whether he wins or not. Meanwhile, earlier in the week on Wednesday, Hermes Allen, who is favourite for the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle, represents Cobden’s most likely chance of celebrating a winner at the Festival but will have to overcome a host of Irish challenges in order to take top honours. 

There was plenty to like about the way he took his opposition apart at Newbury in the Challow Hurdle last time, as he jumped and travelled well and powered through the ground to score by over four lengths. The second has boosted the form since as well and he looks tailor-made for this race. He won’t get a freebie up front but he looks every inch a top-class horse and is the one to beat. 

Cobden also gets a good opportunity to get his Festival off to a flyer as Tahmuras is his ride in the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, who will arrive into Cheltenham on the back of a nice victory in the Grade 1 Unibet Tolworth Novices’ Hurdle at Sandown Park. He has a couple of pounds to find with the main principles but he has a nice profile and has a lot more to offer plus a strongly-run race will be right up his street.

Outside of his three big rides of the week, he has other notable chances. Stage Star is entered in three races, the Brown Advisory, the Turners Novices’ Chase and the Plate but has an each-way chance in all of them. He was really impressive in winning a handicap at Cheltenham last time, so perhaps the Plate would be the best option for Cobden to get a winner but who knows which race Nicholls will choose. 

His stablemate II Ridoto has just one entry at the Festival, in the Plate, so it’s possible Stage Star will tackle one of the Grade 1 events. Stay Away Fay is likely to be his ride in the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle and could go well. He was last seen running well in the Grade Two trial race for this at Doncaster and has his best days ahead of him. He is likely to start the race at a big price but has an outside chance. 

He also takes the ride on the exciting and unbeaten Captain Teague in the Champion Bumper, the final race on Tuesday, who won in his stable debut at Plumpton and could go well at large odds. On the same day, he is booked to ride Afadil in the Boodles Handicap Hurdle, who retains potential despite disappointing at Haydock when last spotted. Finally, in the Champion Chase on Wednesday, he will ride former Tingle Creek winner, Greaneteen. 

In conclusion, it is going to be tough for any of the other jockeys to beat Townend but the price differential between himself and Cobden is just too big to ignore. It is only a matter of time before everything clicks into place at the meeting for Nicholls’ number one rider and it could well be this year. At generous odds, he is worth a bet against the favourite at the prices.

Harry Cobden main rides at the 2023 Cheltenham Festival

Tuesday 14th March 2023

  • Tahmuras (Supreme Novices Hurdle)
  • Afadil (Boodles Handicap Hurdle)

 

Wednesday 15th March 2023

  • Hermes Allen (Ballymore Novices Hurdle)
  • Stage Star (Brown Advisory Novices Chase?)
  • Captain Teague (Champion Bumper) 

 

Thursday 16th March 2023

  • Stage Star (Plate Handicap Chase/Turners Novices Chase)
  • II Ridoto (Plate Handicap Chase)

 

Friday 17th March 2023

  • Stay Away Fay (Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle)
  • Bravemansgame (Cheltenham Gold Cup)