Lincoln Handicap 2023: Tips, Runners & Prediction for Doncaster

The Flat season gets underway this weekend at Doncaster, where the feature race is the Lincoln Handicap. 

Lincoln Handicap 2023 Runners

Awaal

• Trainer: Simon and Ed Crisford
• Jockey: James Doyle 
• Form: 3121
• Odds: 11/2

 

Simon and Ed Crisford and James Doyle came close to winning the Dubai World Cup over the weekend when Algiers finished a creditable second and they have a big chance in this highly-competitive handicap in the shape of Awaal, who has been gelded since last seen. 

He progressed through the ranks last year after four starts and defied an absence of 154 days to score easily on his handicap debut on heavy ground at Redcar in October, showcasing a smart turn of foot to beat some decent handicappers by more than three lengths. 

The handicapper has taken no chances by raising his mark nine-pounds as a result of that latest win, but the forecast rain will be in his favour and this son of Lope De Vega beat last year’s Britannia Stakes winner Thesis on his only previous start over a mile. Excellent chance. 

Safe Voyage

• Trainer: John Quinn
• Jockey: Jason Hart
• Odds: 40/1
• Form: 086104 

 

This former multiple Group-race winner probably isn’t the force of old but is still capable of smart form and the last time we seen him, he finished an excellent fourth in the Balmoral Handicap at Royal Ascot when a place behind Tacarib Bay and meets that rival on four pounds better terms here. 

He has a good record fresh (two wins after a break) and the one-pound reduction in the handicap is considerably lenient. Moreover, he is nine-pounds lower than when midfield in last year’s renewal, so there’s a possibility he will improve on that finishing effort this year. An interesting outsider, indeed. 

Barader 

• Trainer: George Boughey
• Jockey: Kevin Stott
• Odds: 11/1
• Form: 300081

 

A two-time winner for Roger Varian as a juvenile, he went winless for Johnny Murtagh after five starts last season but struck at the first attempt for this stable at this course over seven-furlongs on heavy ground, beating the 99-rated Biggles with something to spare. 

His mark has been raised four-pounds but that seems fair on the face of that latest success, as the fourth and fifth have won since. This race is a different kettle of fish but he was third in the Group 1 Futurity Trophy Stakes over course-and-distance as a two-year-old and has the ability to figure. 

Bopedro

• Trainer: David O’Meara 
• Jockey: Danny Tudhope
• Odds: 16/1
• Form: 848302

 

This former Irish raider has been with a few yards in his time but shaped well in five starts last year and ended his last campaign with a fine second over seven-furlongs here in October to the progressive Totally Charming, form that reads well, though a touch short of the requirement needed to win this race.

He is back up a pound but remains well-treated on the pick of his form and has won under various conditions as well. He will need a lot to go his way to succeed but he cannot be underestimated for David O’Meara and Danny Tudhope, who teamed up to win this valuable pot six years ago with Bravery. 

Al Mubhir

• Trainer: William Haggas
• Jockey: Andrea Atzeni
• Odds: 4/1
• Form: 144271

 

The stables first-string according to the betting, who won his sole start at two, and produced an exceptional success over a mile at Haydock in October when last seen. Clearly, he thrived on the heavy ground and conditions this weekend are looking likely to be in his favour. 

He probably has more to come but this is a step up in grade and he has a seven-pounds higher mark to contend with which makes his task a lot more difficult than the betting indicates. An obvious chance to most but he’s too short and better value appears elsewhere in the field. 

Wanees 

• Trainer: Charlie Hills
• Jockey: Jim Crowley 
• Odds: 9/1
• Form: 111601

 

A first-time hood worked a trick when he won on his seasonal/handicap debut at Sandown last April, winning for the third time in succession before an excellent sixth of 30 in the Britannia Stakes at Royal Ascot, doing well to finish where he did from an unpromising position. 

He ran poorly at Goodwood next time but the gelding operation worked well ahead of his next start, where he got the better of reopposing Montassib at Haydock in September. A three-pounds rise should be easily manageable and he looks competitive on form. 

Jimi Hendrix 

• Trainer: Ralph Beckett
• Jockey: Rossa Ryan 
• Odds: 16/1
• Form: 131005

 

Ralph Beckett’s charge lost his way towards the back of last season but he was progressive at two and was third in last year’s Britannia Stakes at Royal Ascot. 

A break has probably done him good and he is one-from-one at this course but this is a tough race to bounce back and the percentage call is to look elsewhere. 

Montassib

• Trainer: William Haggas
• Jockey: Cieren Fallon
• Odds: 12/1
• Form: 115442

 

A winner of his first three starts, this five-year-old is ground-versatile and his trainer is in good form after winning the Irish Lincolnshire at the Curragh last weekend. He missed the whole of 2021 but has made up for lost time with a pair of wins and placed efforts since. 

He won at Wetherby and Haydock early on last season and then performed really well in red-hot handicaps afterwards, including in the Buckingham Place, Bunbury Cup, Shergar Cup Mile and also when narrowly denied in the Boston Handicap when last seen. 

He makes his reappearance from only a pound higher mark and there should be plenty more to come. He has the right sort of profile for this race plus the step up to a mile should prove favourable. A lot of luck in-running will be needed but expect him to be flying late. 

Boardman

• Trainer: Tim Easterby
• Jockey: David Allan
• Odds: 33/1
• Form: 062487

 

It’s hard to dispute how consistent this solid yardstick has been over seven furlongs and a mile and has won his second start back each season for the last two years. He should strip fitter from his comeback run at Wolverhampton and is only four-pounds higher than when last successful. 

That said, there is little margin for error from his current mark of 98, especially when you factor into account that his best form has been over seven and not a mile. A strongly-run race will suit, so he might run above market expectations and finish in the top half of the field but isn’t for me. 

Empirestateofmind

• Trainer: John Quinn
• Jockey: Taylor Fisher
• Odds: 20/1
• Form: 721222

 

In the same stable and ownership of Safe Voyage, this horse has been consistent for a while and has finished third and second in two starts at this track. He was only half-a-length behind Atrium here in September before matching that form when filling the same spot at York in October. 

He makes his seasonal reappearance from a four-pounds higher mark than last time but connections have appointed Taylor Fisher to ride, who claims five-pounds. If this five-year-old is ready to roll on his return, he is an outsider who could offer some value. 

Eilean Dubh 

• Trainer: Karl Burke 
• Jockey: Clifford Lee 
• Odds: 40/1
• Form: 311019

 

Karl Burke’s charge had a great last year, winning four good handicaps over a mile, but was well-held on his return at Wolverhampton off his revised mark. 

He is clearly capable on his day but he’s still in the same mark as last time and whilst he will come on for that latest appearance, it is difficult to see him finding a new personal best to land the spoils. 

Atrium

• Trainer: Charlie Fellowes
• Jockey: Kieran Shoemark 
• Odds: 12/1
• Form: 103611

 

Having signed off last season with back-to-back wins over a mile at Newbury and at this course, another personal best is going to be required on his reappearance. 

He flew home to take the spoils here last time but a four-pounds rise with no prep-run might see him at his most vulnerable. He needed his return last season and it is plausible to think he will do so again in this much tougher race. 

Encourageable 

• Trainer: James Horton 
• Jockey: David Probert 
• Odds: 33/1
• Form: 162416

 

A winner at Wolverhampton last April, he then won a small-field mile event at Thirsk in September and was only beaten three lengths by the reopposing Wanees off this mark when last spotted. 

He has work to do to reverse that form and needs to prove he gets a mile but his trainer has a good record in large-field handicaps, so he could be thereabouts. 

Toshizou

• Trainer: Roger Fell
• Jockey: Jonny Peate
• Odds: 20/1
• Form: 544025 

 

This son of Galileo showcased a decent level of form when trained by Joseph O’Brien and has joined Nicky Bradley. It will be interesting to see how he gets on here on his stable debut, as it would be some effort should he win but that seems far-fetched on his reappearance. 

A mark of 94 might be lenient though, as he went close on his penultimate start off 95 in Ireland. The market should be a guide as to how he might perform. 

Witch Hunter

• Trainer: Richard Hannon
• Jockey: Alexander Voikhansky
• Odds: 66/1
• Form: 943172

 

If this was run on the all-weather, Witch Hunter might have been worth a second look at huge odds. He has been performing really well on the surface and was touched off by only a short-head last time off this mark. 

He won at Wolverhampton back in November but the step up to a mile asks questions given he’s yet to run over the trip. It is possible he will run well but winning this looks unlikely unless he really does prove he stays.

Lincoln Handicap 2023 Tips & Prediction 

This is a cracking renewal of the Lincoln and it’s impossible to discount any of them. However, BARADAR (best price 11/1) makes plenty of appeal at the current odds.

George Boughey’s five-year-old won very smoothly here last time over seven-furlongs on heavy ground and the forecast rain will suit. Coincidentally, the only previous time he ran over a mile was over course-and-distance, where he finished third in the Group 1 Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes as a two-year-old. 

He was only beaten two-and-a-half lengths behind One Ruler and Mac Swiney, who have advertised the form in a huge way since in Group 1 and Group 2 events. In that race, back in fifth, was multiple Group 1 winner State Of Rest, so the form has loads of substance. 

He has only gone up four-pounds for winning last time and remains well-treated off this revised mark, so he’s a standout each-way proposition at double-figure with plenty in his favour. 

I’ll also recommend Simon and Ed Crisford’s AWAAL (best price 11/2) who could be genuine Group-race material for connections and has to enter the reckoning despite his odds appearing to be short in such a competitive race. 

He beat the subsequent Britannia winner Thesis in a Lingfield novice last May and absolutely trounced his rivals when faced with testing conditions on handicap debut at Redcar when last spotted. He has strong credentials.