Melling Chase 2023 Tips, Runners & Prediction

Melling Chase 2023 Runners

Fakir D’Oudairies

• Trainer: Joseph O’Brien
• Jockey: Mark Walsh
• Odds: 9/4
• Form: 115213

 

The defending champion Fakir D’Oudairies will attempt to become the first three-time winner of this Grade 1 race having won the last two renewals and victory would see him surpass the five other two-time winners of the contest including some of the greats such as Viking Flagship, Moscow Flyer and Voy Por Ustedes.

The eight-year-old, however, returned a beaten favourite in the Ascot Chase last time when trying to defend his title and will need to reverse the form with second-place finisher Pic D'Orhy but that is possible on return to a course that suits him better than the Berkshire venue plus he bypassed Cheltenham, which will help.

He has returned an impressive winner of this for the last couple of years but this year’s race looks a stronger renewal and he might just prove vulnerable this time after his below-par effort last time. He is a top-class horse but if some of the all-time greats couldn’t win this three times then he surely has work cut out to make history.

French Dynamite

• Trainer: Mouse Morris
• Jockey: Darragh O’Keeffe
• Odds: 8/1
• Form: 312524

 

French Dynamite is Mouse Morris' only runner at the Aintree Festival and the eight-year-old was last seen running a really good race to finish fourth in the Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival and only faded out of the frame on the run-in due to racing keenly in the early stages having swept to the lead from the home-bend.

Those early excursions might have told late on but he ran well and a flat-track like Aintree should really suit this assured jumper, who has plenty of pace to boot.

Notably, he would have finished in front of Fakir D’Oudairies two starts ago at Thurles without a bad mistake at the final fence. I am aware he is six pounds worse off with the favourite here from when they met at Thurles, so he has work to do in order to reverse the form but that isn’t impossible. 

His second in the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham reads well too and without a mistake at the last fence when in front, he might have won that race. A well-balanced flat-track like Aintree back down in trip should actually suit him better than the undulations of Cheltenham and he has a better chance than his odds imply.

Fugitif

• Trainer: Richard Hobson
• Jockey: Sean Bowen
• Odds: 9/1
• Form: 482122

 

Richard Hobson’s Fugitif might have slipped under the radar to some, who has primarily been in fantastic form this season, in which his form reads 2122 and he arrives into the race with the potential to still prove he can handle this grade.

He has finished second in two valuable handicaps at Cheltenham since winning at Chepstow and his running style suggests he will appreciate a strongly-run race, which he is likely to get in this field.

Conversely, I still recollect his below-par shift when only midfield in the Red Rum Handicap Chase at this fixture last year, while his other previous start at the course, which was over hurdles, saw him finish last of six.

Clearly, a question mark still remains over whether he is seen to best effect at this course plus he has yet to prove himself at Grade 1 standard, as the last time he competed in a Grade 1 he was beaten somewhat 57 lengths when a distant fourth at Sandown.

Hitman

• Trainer: Paul Nicholls
• Jockey: Lorcan Williams
• Odds: 5/1
• Form: 221P23

 

Hitman remains winless in Grade 1 company over fences but consistently runs well in defeat and bounced back from a poor show in the King George when his jumping let him down to run a blinder in the Ryanair when last spotted to finish third to Envoi Allen, only finishing a neck behind Shishkin at the line.

A repeat of that form would entitle him to the utmost respect on his return to Aintree, where his last visit to Merseyside saw him finish second in the Old Roan when Ga Law was back in third. Meanwhile, the form of his second to Zanza wouldn’t be good enough to win this and he was five lengths behind Fakir in this last year.

His ceiling of ability has yet to be reached while that latest run at Cheltenham was an excellent effort, I think he was flattered by the proximity between himself and Shishkin. I’m still not convinced with his efforts in a battle either and if he gets into a tussle, he might just get outpointed again.

That being said, his latest performance was a career-best as far as I can see and he did travel the best in this race last year before the winner found more when push came to shove. Perhaps Lorcan Williams will get an even better tune out of him and soft ground will be no problem to him either. He is interesting and maybe this time he will put matters right. 

Millers Bank

• Trainer: Alex Hales
• Jockey: Kielan Woods
• Odds: 10/1
• Form: 5U2265

 

Whether he has been outclassed or simply underperformed, Millers Bank has been well off the pace the last two times and needs to rediscover his best form in order to play any leading role in this red-hot renewal of this Grade 1 race, though this course brings out the best in him.

The good news about his credentials, is recognising his best form has been at this time of year, particularly at this meeting. He was third in the Aintree two seasons ago here before claiming a substandard renewal of the Manifesto Novices' Chase despite winning it in great style by 10 lengths.

He does need to cast aside a remote fifth in the Ascot Chase but he could easily bounce back and outrun his odds given his course form and the return to this trip will suit better. In fact, his form figures over fences around the intermediate trip reads 1UU21U22, so he has place claims should he not decide to unship his rider.

Minella Drama

• Trainer: Donald McCain
• Jockey: Brian Hughes
• Odds: 20/1
• Form: 424311

 

Minella Drama has returned a good winner of his last two starts, including when giving a lot of weight and a beating SkyBet Chase winner Cooper’s Cross on his penultimate start. The eight-year-old needs more to trouble a few of these but he probably has more to come.

He was second at this meeting two years ago to My Drogo in the Grade 1 Mersey Novices' Hurdle but that form hasn’t worked out as well as some might have hoped for. Still, he’s a genuine horse who wears his heart on his sleeve and could outrun his odds, though he would be a surprise winner in my opinion.

Pic D’Orhy

• Trainer: Paul Nicholls
• Jockey: Harry Cobden
• Odds: 9/4
• Form: 1P1112

 

Paul Nicholls main player however is Pic D’Orhy, who has had his fair jumping issues in the past but they look firmly behind him now and his latest second to Shishkin in the Ascot Chase was a really good performance in defeat.

He had previously won all of his three starts this season and the eight-year-old just seems to be at his most confident nowadays. He is the choice of Harry Cobden as well, who could have ridden Hitman, so his presence does add further confidence.

All of his best form has been on a sounder surface, so if conditions became very testing, it would ask more of him but he did win on heavy when formerly trained in France as a youngster. However, his three wins this year haven’t worked out too well as the runner-up from each win has been beaten since.

Adding to this, he was dismal at this meeting last year when pulled up in the Manifesto Novices' Chase as his jumping was poor. He jumps much better now but this race is much tougher and he might get taken on for the lead as well by Minella Drama, which could inconvenience his chance. 

Melling Chase 2023 Tips & Prediction 

A case can be made for all of these if putting their best foot forward but I am going to take on the two at the top of the market and side with the Ryanair Chase form-lines. The first one is FRENCH DYNAMITE (best price 8/1) who ran a cracker to finish fourth after racing keenly in the early stages and the drop back in trip plus the flat, sharp track should suit.

He is Mouse Morris' only runner at the Aintree Festival and it’s not like he needs to improve a lot to have a say in the argument. He won’t mind a spot of rain and has more to come over fences. The fact that Pic D’Orhy ran poorly here last year and Fakir D’Oudairies was beaten a long way into third last time makes this eight-year-old a decent value play at the odds.

My other tip is Paul Nicholls’ other runner HITMAN (best price 5/1) who I know isn’t the strongest of finishers in a battle but Lorcan Williams could get a fine tune out of him and the soft ground will be fine as well. His win at Haydock is still stronger form than what Pic D’Orhy achieved in his three wins before his second at Ascot and so too is his Ryanair third.

He was just denied on his return in the Old Roan on his return over course-and-distance his run in the King George can be ignored as he reportedly bled. He was a five length second to Fakir D’Oudairies in this last year but with another year on his back, I reckon he can bridge the gap, if not reverse the form. This could be the time the seven-year-old finally delivers at graded level.