Craven Stakes 2023: Tips, Runners & Prediction for Newmarket

The first meeting at Newmarket of the Flat season will see the highlight of the three-day Festival, the Group 3 bet365 Craven Stakes, take place on Thursday.

It is the first of the British Classic trials which takes place on the Rowley Mile and predominantly provides clues for the 2000 Guineas next month.

Craven Stakes 2023 Runners 

Naval Power

Naval Power won four on the spin last year before his unbeaten record came to an end at this course in the Dewhurst Stakes when only sixth. He bounced back in good style with success at Meydan at the start of the year though and will be a popular choice for many punters.

He needs to prove he is effective on this course though, as his sole visit here last year proved inconclusive but he is still given the utmost respect for last year’s winning connections.

Mysterious Knight

Mysterious Knight, who is stablemate to Naval Power, endured a busy spell last year, where he raced six times, winning three of those and made the frame in the other three. He won a Group 3 in France and concluded his productive campaign with Grade 1 success in the Pattison Summer Stakes at Woodbine.

Another big season is expected from this son of Dark Angel, who has plenty more to come and relished his first try at a mile in that Grade 1 when last spotted. He is a straight-forward, athletic colt, who ran well behind Persian Force on his sole previous visit here and is partnered by William Buick. He is the right favourite.

Indestructible

The Karl Burke-trained Indestructible does interest me for this race. He benefited from his debut fifth to beat a mediocre field at Windsor and then filled the runner-up spot behind Chaldean in a Group 3 at York and then a Group 2 at Doncaster. Mathematically, he should be much closer to Naval Power in the betting on a line through Chaldean.

He isn’t far off the top two in the market on official ratings with only a three pound differential, and while he lacks experience of this course, he makes up for it with his attitude which should see him go well. We haven’t seen the best of him yet and with Chaldean not in his way this time, he has a chance with the ground favourably drying all the time.

Mostabshir

Interestingly, one-time raced winner Mostabshir is the same price as favourite Mysterious Knight for the 2000 Guineas but is double his odds for this race, which I cannot understand why when looking at both their chances. He only won a minor event at Kempton on the all-weather but he did it impressively and surely has more to come.

This is a step up in grade but he has the potential to be a Group 1 horse and both John and Thady Gosden have clearly had this race in mind. Jim Crowley maintains the ride in the colours of Shadwell Estate and, if he is going to take up the 2000 Guineas entry, then he must be competitive here. At fairly generous odds, he is a reasonable danger.

The Foxes

Andrew Balding will fancy his sole representative, The Foxes, to bridge the gap on Mysterious Knight, who was two lengths behind the latter in fourth when the pair clashed on debut at Newbury and, since finishing down the field in the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot, he has won both starts in the manner of a rapid improver.

He beat an odds-on favourite at Goodwood and then supplemented that with a nice success over course-and-distance in a good renewal of the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes. That form is seriously strong in the context of this, as the second, Dubai Mile has since won a Group 1 at Saint-Cloud, while the third Flying Honours, won the Group 3 Zetland Stakes at this course.

I was visually impressed with the way he coped with the step up in trip, showing great resolution and battling qualities to see off a quality field and this represents an ease in grade. The drier forecast will be in his favour and his win here last time is amongst the best course form, so the price tag significantly underestimates his chances.

Dancing Magic

Roger Teal’s Dancing Magic has yet to get his head in front but some of his form is strong and the last time we saw him, he finished a career-best fourth in the Group 1 Futurity Trophy Stakes.

He wasn’t beaten far in that race and he will appreciate the ease in grade. He is more exposed than most but does have ability and could again run well without troubling the market principles.

Ancestral Land

Clive Cox’s charge, Ancestral Land, proved no match for Al Karrar on debut but comfortably went one better at Chepstow next time and then ran very well when third behind Knight in the Group 3 Horris Hill Stakes.

That form looks strong and he was beaten under three lengths in that race, which came on heavy ground. He should appreciate the return to better ground and while improvement is required from this rating, he should be thereabouts.

Mr Mistoffelees

The rank outsider of the field is Mr Mistoffelees, who would be a surprise winner if he was succeed. Hughie Morrison’s charge was well beaten on debut when last of 14.

He did, however, improve to finish fifth next time and then opened his account at huge odds at Kempton at the third time of asking. He is improving but is probably one for handicaps later down the line, as he looks out of his depth.

Craven Stakes 2023 Tips & Prediction

While acknowledging the presence of Charlie Appelby’s two runners, who are vying for favouritism, I am going to look outside the top of the market and take a wild stab at two bigger priced runners, each-way, who certainly have the ammunition to be competitive and offer value.

THE FOXES (best price 6/1) beat an odds-on favourite at Goodwood, who has let the firm down since but the form of his Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes success over course-and-distance is quality form in the context of this race given the second, Dubai Mile, has won a Group 1 since, while the third, Flying Honours, bolted up in a Group 3 at this course.

That was his try test of a mile and there appeared to be no fluke about that success either, as he was always holding the runner-up. That is amongst the best form in this field and Oisin Murphy retains the ride as well. A strong pace will suit, he’s proven himself at this course and is actually the highest rated runner in the field.

By contrast, he is rated a pound higher than both the Godolphin pair but is four times the odds of both, which I cannot comprehend. He makes plenty of each-way appeal at generous odds coupled with his trainer being in good form as well.

I’ll also make an each-way case for Karl Burke’s INDESTRUCTIBLE (best price 11/1) who lost little in defeat when twice second to Chaldean last season and returns following wind surgery, which could yield further improvement as he tackles a mile for the first time.

Kevin Stott is riding out of his skin for AMO Racing and this talented youngster should be suited to a stiff mile on this course. He doesn’t have much to find on official ratings and should have more to offer this season, so he is another I want to be backing at the odds.