Irish 2000 Guineas 2023 Tips & Runners Guide

Irish 2000 Guineas Runners Guide

1. Age Of Kings

• Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
• Odds: 25/1
• Form: 21743

 

A son of Kingman, who was beaten just a nose on debut by Shartash before comfortably going one better next time at the Curragh. He was unlucky not to finish a touch closer when seventh of 17 in the Group 2 Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot next time but Shartash confirmed his superiority over him when only fourth in the Railway Stakes and was then well held in third by Proud And Regal when last seen in the Tyros Stakes.

On that basis, he needs improvement and he isn’t guaranteed to appreciate the step up to a mile. Adding to that, this will be his reappearance and others have achieved more, with a run under their belt too. Ultimately, he would be a surprise winner and is confidently passed over. His connections have a much stronger candidate in Paddington, who is the choice of Ryan Moore.

2. Alexander John

• Trainer: Luke Comer
• Odds: 400/1
• Form: 33607

 

The rank outsider of the field, who placed three times in succession last season but that sort of form wouldn’t be good enough to trouble the majority of these and he has yet to race beyond seven furlongs as well, so he has stamina to prove.

He has been well beaten in two easier races this year and looks well out of his depth up against some top-class rivals in his bid to break his maiden status here. With all due respect, he is impossible to fancy and his price reflects his limited chances.

3. Bold Discovery

• Trainer: Jessica Harrington
• Odds: 40/1
• Form: 1325

 

Made an impressive winning debut from the front at Naas but failed to hold off the late challenge of Cairo when stepped up in grade in the Killavullan Stakes next time, eventually losing second in the closing stages.

He then chased home Hans Anderson in a Group 3 in second but was well behind Paddington when last seen on his first go over a mile and to me he looked like he didn’t stay the distance. I think he has his work cut out in this company. 

4. Cairo

• Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
• Odds: 14/1
• Form: 21210

 

Sent off favourite for the UAE Derby when last seen but ran below market expectations, finishing only 10th of 13 and needs to bounce back in order to give himself any sort of chance in this significant step up in grade and that seems unlikely despite being a winner over course-and-distance last August.

He was progressive before his flop last time though, winning three of his five starts and finished second in the other two. His best performance was in the Group 3 Killavullan Stakes, which has worked out reasonably well but this is a whole different ball game and he makes limited appeal.

5. Charyn

• Trainer: Roger Varian
• Odds: 20/1
• Form: 123128

 

One of the more interesting runners at a double-figure price representing the Brits, who ran well when second to Isaac Shelby in the Greenham Stakes at Newbury and ran well from a rubbish draw in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket when eighth of 14 considering his chances were compromised by being forced to race on the wing of the field, with hardly any cover.

That was his first try at a mile and he shaped like he didn’t lack for stamina and the return to better ground will suit. He will need a new personal best to take the spoils but this course should play more to his strengths and he might be able to give a few of the market leaders plenty to think about. Interesting.

 

6. Galeron

• Trainer: Charlie Hills
• Odds: 12/1
• Form: 664134

 

Gave weight and a beating to Trillium at Goodwood on his second start and ran solid races in defeat in a pair of Group 2 events the next twice before a good fourth of 15 in the 300,000 2-Y-O Stakes at Doncaster. Improved a chunk to win the Goffs Million at this course on his final start and has clearly trained on this season, finishing third in the Burradon Stakes on his return, as well as an excellent fourth in the 2000 Guineas when sent off 150/1.

He did well given he was hampered at the start in that latest event before powering through the line, relishing the trip on the turf. Was he flattered or was that a true reflection of his capabilities?

We will find out this weekend. If he backs that up, he is sure to be in the firing line but I suspect Royal Scotsman, who was a place in front of him at Newmarket, might again have his measure. Still, champion jockey Colin Keane is interestingly booked to ride.

7. Hi Royal

• Trainer: Kevin Ryan
• Odds: 9/2
• Form: 3142

 

Kevin Ryan’s charge improved markedly from his fourth to Majestic Pride on his return at the Craven meeting when a tremendous second in the 2000 Guineas English equivalent, where he went hard from the front under Oisin Murphy and only found Chaldean too strong in the latter stages when he hung left having briefly looked as though he was going cause a shock when he went clear of the entire field. In theory, based on that latest performance, he should be favourite.

The question now though, is can he back that up this weekend. It’s highly likely he will be ridden in the same manner, or be up with the pace given Oisin Murphy retains the ride. It will be hard to dictate the pace at this venue but that latest showing was by far a new personal best and he is open to further improvement. Clearly, positive tactics served him well and he could go one better if Oisín can judge the fractions right. Good chance but Royal Scotsman has an excellent chance to reverse the form.

8. Paddington

• Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
• Odds: 5/1
• Form: 5111

 

A powerful-looking individual, who has won his last three starts and is connections leading hopeful in the race after comfortably winning a Listed event over course-and-distance earlier this month. He is worth his place in the field but surely his price is overcooked.

That said, his win two starts ago looks untrustworthy, as the second has been heavily beaten since. He won’t lack stamina and will be popular but to me he is a future stayer and is priced up on potential rather than what he has actually achieved. 

He is the pick of Ryan Moore, and is two-from-two at this course but Aidan O’Brien hasn’t won this race since Churchill in 2017 and I get the impression he might have to settle for minor honours at best given others have a lot more substance in their form.

9. Proud And Regal

• Trainer: Donnacha O’Brien
• Odds: 13/2
• Form: 113213

 

Plenty to like about this son of Galileo, who won his first two starts, including a Group 3 and while he returned a beaten favourite when only third in the Group 2 Futurity Stakes, he ran a great race to finish second behind Al Riffa in the Group 1 National Stakes.

The winner was a warm favourite for this contest before his deflection given he clocked a huge number in that last race, so the runner-up deserves plenty of recognition to only be beaten a length and three quarters at the line.

That’s amongst the best form in the field and on his next start he won the Criterium International at Saint-Cloud over a mile. The drop to a mile should suit, as he reappeared over 1m2f on testing ground in the Derby Trial Stakes and finished third after being sent off favourite. 

He is sure to be fit from that return and single-handedly brings the best form in Ireland courtesy of his National Stakes second. This race has been his target, and he has a great chance to provide Aidan’s son with a first success in the race.

10. Quar Shamar

• Trainer: Jessica Harrington
• Odds: 25/1
• Form: 01

 

Improved from his down-the-field effort on debut at this course to beat an odds-on favourite at Dundalk when stepped up to a mile last month. The second has won since to boost the form but he still needs plenty more to trouble the main protagonists, who set a clear benchmark in comparison to his success last time.

Jessica Harrington is a trainer who needs the utmost respect but it would come as a shock if this three-year-old cast aside his light experience to land this race, which is a significant step up in grade from last time. I fear he will lack the maturity and strength to cope with this field so soon in his career and he is opposed.

11. Royal Scotsman

• Trainer: Paul & Oliver Cole
• Odds: 9/4
• Form: 131523

 

The favourite at the time of recording, who came close to beating Chaldean in the Dewhurst at Newmarket in October and had earlier impressed when winning the Richmond Stakes at Goodwood.

He was last seen running a blinder to take third in the 2000 Guineas, faring best of his group and hitting the line strongly despite racing keenly in the early stages.

That was his first test over a mile, so it was a true testament to his natural class that he was able to finish as close as he did, plus he was hampered mid-race as well. Form-wise, he is a huge player even if my inclination tells me he had a hard race.

Either way, he is battle hardened and has got a serious chance given he’s the only one to have gotten so close to Chaldean. It will take a good horse to stop him in his tracks and he is a fair price with Jamie Spencer taking the ride.

Irish 2000 Guineas Tips & Prediction

With the absence of Al Riffa and Chaldean, the gloss of what promised to be a high-class encounter has certainly been chipped but it is still going to be a great race regardless.

ROYAL SCOTSMAN (best price 9/4) was a place behind Hi Royal in the English version three weeks ago but the latter had it all his own way in front and Andrew Balding’s charge did well to nearly get upsides him at the finish having had to come from well off the pace.

He raced keenly, didn’t get a clear passage at a crucial stage of the race but still fared best of those who were drawn high. That was also the first time he tackled soft ground and conditions this weekend will suit him a lot better. He is the highest-rated runner in the field and gets his opportunity to land a first success at the top-tier.

Of the Irish, I’ll also have a small bet on PROUD AND REGAL (best price 13/2) who is the only Group 1 winner in the field and his second to Al Riffa is a seriously strong piece of form. He has valuable knowledge of this course and will come on plenty from his return at Leopardstown.

As far as I can see, he brings the best Irish form into the race and Donnacha O’Brien has had this race as his objective for a while. He won his Group 1 in France over this distance and is open to a lot more improvement. I think he is the biggest danger to Royal Scotsman, so he’s of definite interest at the odds.