Architect Tips provides 2 betting tips for the Epsom Derby 2023.
Epsom Derby 2023
1. Adelaide River
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Odds: 66/1
Form: 12232
A son of former Derby winner Australia, who scored on his debut at Dundalk and has placed in all four starts since. He was beaten six lengths into third in a Group 1 in Saint-Cloud by Dubai Mile and Arrest and then proved no match for the latter at Chester on his reappearance.
He might improve on better ground and his connections have an excellent record in the race. He could be an each-way player at a big price for the Ballydoyle squad, even if a few of his stable companions are much more fancied in the market.
2. Arrest
Trainer: John Gosden
Odds: 9/2
Form: 31121
Frankie Dettori will make his 28th and final Derby ride on this beast of a horse, who has a cracking chance of handing the Italian maestro with a perfect send off on the downs. He is that much of a unit, you’ll have no trouble spotting him in the race and he wouldn’t be out of a place in a chase event in the National Hunt scene!
He proved he stays a mile and a half having won the Chester Vase and has been pre-prepared for the race with a spin around Tattenham Corner. He has a bit of a high knee action and would probably be seen to best effect on soft ground but he’s a high-class horse who will handle better ground and is expected to be extremely competitive. Major player.
3. Artistic Star
Trainer: Ralph Beckett
Odds: 33/1
Form: 11
An unbeaten son of Galileo, who stepped up from a maiden to a nice novice event at Sandown and won comfortably.
He is clearly smart and is one to watch whichever race he tackles at Royal Ascot but this is a steep rise in grade on just his third career start and he will do well to overcome inexperience to make a splash into deep waters.
He is respected but it would come as a surprise if he was to win this. Even so, he will probably acquit himself well.
4. Auguste Rodin
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Odds: 7/2
Form: 21110
I am under no illusions how highly regarded this horse is by his connections but despite winning the Group 1 Futurity at Doncaster as a two-year-old, the form has been let down since. He was then majorly disappointing when only beating two home in the 2000 Guineas having been sent off a warm favourite.
He now all of a sudden comes with risks attached but in theory, he needed the run as it was his first start of the season and I have no doubt he will be better over this longer distance. A leap of faith is required if you fancy him to redeem himself but his odds are terrible, truth be told. Nevertheless, he is undoubtedly a high-class animal and even after his flop last time, he is still the stables main hope for the feature.
5. Dear My Friend
Trainer: Charlie Johnston
Odds: 125/1
Form: 153318
Displayed some really good form last season, winning twice and placing in a couple of pattern-class events and made a winning return at Newcastle.
He was recently well beaten in the Dante though and is likely to be second strong to stablemate Dubai Mile. It is hard to see him making an impact and it is probably wise to look elsewhere.
6. Dubai Mile
Trainer: Charlie Johnston
Odds: 18/1
Form: 411215
An interesting candidate, whose profile, form and rating puts him in the mix. His two-year-old form has a lot of similarities in regards to his profile as The Foxes. He won the Group 1 Grand Criterium de Saint-Cloud over a mile and a quarter at two and that form gives him a leading chance as he beat Arrest by a head.
He hit the line quite strongly when fifth in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket and could find a bit more improvement over this longer distance. He is one of the more appealing projects and has seemingly slipped under the radar according to the bookmakers quoted odds. At this stage, himself and Arrest appeal most, as I am trusting the French form.
7. King Of Steel
Trainer: Roger Varian
Odds: 66/1
Form: 17
Plenty of scope about this lad like Arrest but he would a serious, serious performance to win this on his return, which is rarely achieved. He won on his debut but was then well beaten behind Auguste Rodin in the Futurity.
He was due to run a few weeks ago but was withdrawn and it is hard to see him going close, in which his price says it all, though I am sure he won’t disgrace himself tackling this longer distance.
8. Military Order
Trainer: Charlie Appleby
Odds: 9/2
Form: 4111
A full-brother to 2021 winner Adayar and the current favourite. He is already proven over a mile and a half having won the Derby Trial at Lingfield when last seen.
He might have had the run of the race when he had a dream run down the inside rail but he showed plenty of tactical speed to power to success in the closing stages and should be suited to this course.
Even though he was impressive, I am not sold on that form and I am happy to oppose him despite his popularity and his connections good recent record in the race.
9. Passenger
Trainer: Sir Michael Stoute
Odds: 13/2
Form: 13
A good-looking son of Ulysses, who overcame inexperience to win going away on debut at Newmarket. He would have gone very close with a clear run in the Dante at York but still managed to finish third. That was a major step forward in terms of progress and the fact that he was supplemented at a late stage suggests he is ready to go. With more to come, he should be thereabouts but I suspect he might find or two too good after just two career starts.
10. San Antonio
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Odds: 33/1
Form: 5311
Unbeaten in two starts this season, including when scoring over a mile and a quarter at Chester in the Dee Stakes on deep ground. He needs to raise his game to figure here though.
Moreover, isn’t guaranteed to get the distance either. He is more of a plodder than anything, so it’s more than likely a few others with a turn of foot and staying power will have him cooked.
11. Sprewell
Trainer: Jessica Harrington
Odds: 12/1
Form: 4211
It would be great to see him win the Derby for Jessica Harrington, who deserves to land another big pot. He has improved with each start and the further he went in the Leopardstown trial the better he looked, as he hit the line strongly.
All of his form has been on soft or softer but there’s no reason why he won’t be just as effective on better ground. A few others have achieved more but he is improving and could easily reach the frame. I would be disappointed if he wasn’t in the first six.
12. The Foxes
Trainer: Andrew Balding
Odds: 14/1
Form: 491121
Has come of age since finishing down the field at Royal Ascot last year, winning three of his last four starts, including the Dante last time. I thought his performance can be upgraded, as he didn’t exactly have the best of passages either and raced keenly at stages.
He probably had a hard race but he’s a tough horse and if he stays the trip, which is the big question mark, the Leicester City owners could have a big player here. He cannot be ruled out given the relentless progress he has made.
13. Waipiro
Trainer: Ed Walker
Odds: 25/1
Form: 612
A good-looking son of Australia, who won nicely at Newmarket on his second start and has just a length and a quarter to find with the favourite Military Order on their Lingfield form.
The pair were clear of the rest but both of them had the run of the race and I struggle to see how he can reverse the form with the winner. He should be on the premises but I am struggling to warm to him. Maybe I am just being picky.
14. White Birch
Trainer: John Murphy
Odds: 12/1
Form: 5112
Lots to like about his finishing effort when a staying on second to The Foxes in the Dante from the back of the field at York after being awkward out of the stalls. His trainer can never be underestimated on the big occasions.
He did have a tough race last time though and he probably needs more time in between his races too. Also, grey horses don’t have the best record in the race either, so he is another who I am going to ignore from a betting perspective.
Epsom Derby 2023 Tips & Predictions
I am playing two against the field in the Epsom Derby this year who have excellent chances in my opinion. I have respect for the top two in the betting but ARREST (best price 9/2) was really impressive in winning at Chester last-time-out and has plenty of improvement to come.
He has already a spin on bits of the course and is a strong stayer with plenty of pace, so he gets a strong each-way vote at the odds. He has an excellent opportunity of providing Frankie Dettori with a final Derby winner for team Gosden. His form is stronger than what the favourite Military Order has achieved.
I’ll also play an each-way bet on Charlie Johnston’s DUBAI MILE (best price 18/1) who ran well to finish fifth in the 2000 Guineas, where he was doing his best work at the finish and could improve for the longer distance. He is a Group 1 winner who handles all ground and has been underestimated by firms again.
Auguste Rodin disappointed last time and Military Order is up in grade, so I am keen on sticking with the Arrest and Dubai Mile, who are proven at the highest level after finishing first and second in a Group 1 in France. Both of them should be much shorter in the betting and are good value plays at their respective odds.
