St James's Palace Stakes - Winner

Chaldean is the correct favourite  

The concluding Group 1 race on the opening day of the Royal meeting is the St James’s Palace Stakes, a race which predominantly puts the 2000 Guineas form into some context by revealing more answers as to who might be the best three-year-old of the season. 

At the high end of the spectrum in terms of the betting market, we have the 2000 Guineas winner Chaldean as the warm favourite. Barring an uncharacteristic mishap in the Greenham at Newbury, Andrew Balding’s charge has done little wrong in his career, winning his last five completed starts and can be backed at a general 6/4 (best price 13/8).

Some might argue that the Guineas form has a questionable look to it given a few underperformed and the form has received a few knocks since but even if that is the case, with the race not being the strongest of renewals in the world, he was still impressive under a confident Frankie Dettori. 

I would take the view of questionable form with a pinch of salt, as even though the likes of Royal Scotsman and Noble Style have been beaten since, Charyn, Galeron and Hi Royal didn’t disgrace themselves in the Irish 2000 Guineas, while the horse who finished last at Newmarket, Little Big Bear, bolted up in the Sandy Lane Stakes. 

Paddington overpriced? 

Based on literal form-lines through Hi Royal, some might argue that the Irish 2000 Guineas winner Paddington - trained by Aidan O’Brien - should be matched a little closer to the favourite, available at 10/3 at the time of writing. 

Paddington beat Hi Royal in the Irish 2000 Guineas by a length further than Chaldean did at Newmarket but it is possible Kevin Ryan’s charge might have been feeling the effects of a hard race at Newmarket. 

That was an excellent jump into Group 1 company from Listed class and the further he went, the better he looked. I can see why he is so popular amongst ante-post bets, as the comparison in price between himself and Chaldean does look big but I think the form of the Guineas at Newmarket is a lot more trustworthy. 

For instance, nobody knew what Hi Royal was going to do out in front and Oisin Murphy tactically caught the rest of the field out by surprise, yet Chaldean was the only horse able to break from the pack and run him down, which was a creditable performance in my opinion. 

Conversely, all the riders knew what he was going do at the Curragh and he wasn’t allowed such a lead. When taking a deeper look into both results, I just get the feeling Chaldean’s success was worth more of an upgrade. 

Take nothing away from Paddington’s success but if the two were to meet at Royal Ascot, I reckon Chaldean’s turn of foot will prove too much for Aidan O’Brien’s charge. 

Unbeaten Cicero’s could be a surprise gift 

A dark horse for the race could be the undefeated Cicero’s Gift, who created a deep impression on debut at Newbury before winning at Wolverhampton and then taking the step up in grade in his stride at Goodwood. 

He showcased a bright turn of foot to put the race to bed in a manner of strides and connections soon after suggested this race has his next intended target. He had the option of the Dante but instead, will head to Royal Ascot, which seems a good move. 

This race will be another step up the ladder and he could encounter much quicker ground than he has done so far but he hasn’t put a foot wrong in all three of his wins and the ceiling of his ability is far from reached.

I think his profile fits the mould as a potential serious player in this line-up. This will be a huge rise in class but he has beaten every horse put in front of him and connections clearly hold him in high regard, which is why he has been given an entry for this race. 

Hell could go well 

One horse I am wanting to keep in mind is the Ger Lyons-trained Hellsing, who has yet to finish outside the first two in four starts and was last seen finishing half-a-length second to Galeron in the Goffs Million at the Curragh. 

That form is useful as the winner has since finished fourth and fifth in both Guineas events in the UK and in Ireland. He does need to improve a chunk to land Group 1 honours in this event but he could still be a lively each-way player at huge odds. 

I think the race will be right up his alley and he should have plenty more to come. His trainer likes to target one at this race and if this son of Dandy Man does line-up, which is likely given this race is his only entry, then he’s not a million miles away of giving himself a place chance or better. 

St James’s Palace Stakes Ante-Post Tips 

CHALDEAN (best price 13/8) might seem a touch short to most in the betting, but on the flip side of the scale he brings the best form into the race and this course should actually suit him a lot better than Newmarket. 

He is a smooth-traveller, with a potent turn of foot and might just have too much ammunition for Paddington, who might lack the gears of Andrew Balding’s dual Group 1 winner. Despite his prohibitive odds, I think the bookmakers have the odds spot on in regards to the top two and he makes plenty of appeal. 

I will also have an each-way saver on CICERO’S GIFT (6/1) who is displaying excellent progress with an unblemished record of three wins from three starts for Charlie Hills. He will be in the lion's den for this assignment but he might be up to the task ahead. 

Whether he has the natural class to beat a pair of Guineas winners is open to debate but he looked a top-class animal last-time-out and is worth an investment to find out.