Irish Oaks 2023 Tips, Runners & Prediction

Eight fillies have been declared for the eagerly anticipated Group 1 Juddmonte Irish Oaks on Saturday. Architect Tips gives us his take on the action at the Curragh.

Irish Oaks Tips 

Advised Bets 

• Azazat  0.5 pts - E/W   16/1
• Savethelastdance  2 pts   5/4

 

Irish Oaks Runners Guide 

Azazat 

• Trainer: Dermot Weld 
• Jockey: Chris Hayes 
• Odds: 14/1
• Form: 2312

 

A daughter of Derby winner Camelot, representing owners Aga Khan, who reached the frame in her first couple of starts in maiden company before relishing the extra emphasis on stamina when stepped up in trip to 1m4f at Leopardstown, winning by nearly five lengths. 

That impressive success earned her a crack at the Munster Oaks at Cork, her first start in a pattern-class race, and she ran a good race to finish second to the 110-rated Rosscarberry, where she made the winner pull out all of the stops, beaten only half-a-length at the line. 

This race would require further improvement to come out on top but Dermot Weld has won this twice in the past and this filly, who is his only representative, might be able to raise her game and produce a career-best. I have seen worse outsiders in a top-level race.

Let’s remember, she was sent off odds-on favourite on her second start to beat Savethelastdance, who was sent off 20/1 that day, and wasn’t beaten far behind the latter in third. Both have improved a lot since, so it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that she can get closer to that rival. The bookmakers have her wildly overpriced. 

Be Happy 

• Trainer: Aidan O’Brien 
• Jockey: TBC
• Odds: 20/1
• Form: 1532

 

Another daughter of Camelot, who didn’t disgrace herself in the Oaks Trial at Lingfield when second despite returning a beaten favourite but the form has worked poorly, given the first, third and fourth have all been well beaten since. 

She did win nicely on her debut at Cork but has been well-held in three starts in Group 3 company, which is below the requisite standard needed in this much harder assignment and is likely to fall down the pecking order on jockey bookings.

Based on her work to date, she is probably a Group 3 filly at best and would be a surprise winner plus a couple of her stable companions hold far more compelling claims. I think she is out of her depth and needs a drop in grade to succeed.

Bluestocking

• Trainer: Ralph Beckett 
• Jockey: Colin Keane
• Odds: 6/1
• Form: 123

 

A striking winner on debut at Salisbury prior to her narrow defeat by Warm Heart on her reappearance in a Listed contest at Newbury last month. She then met the reopposing Warm Heart in the Ribblesdale and while she ran well in third, she was still four lengths adrift of Aidan O’Brien’s filly and will need to find more to bridge the gap here. 

She was still a bit green in that race though, as she seemingly fell asleep mid-race before taking an age to hit top gear. Once she did, she picked up strongly to be nearest the finish and improvement can be expected again in this race, over this longer distance, especially if they go a good gallop, which is what she needs. 

Plus the expected arrival of rain can only increase her chances, which will bring her stamina into play. Colin Keane has interestingly been booked to ride, who rides this course very well and guided 2020 winner, Even So, to success. This filly will have her supporters but still has work to do with Warm Heart and Lumiere Rock. 

Comhra 

• Trainer: Jim Bolger 
• Jockey: Rory Cleary 
• Odds: 40/1
• Form: 746539

 

Exceeded market expectations with an excellent third of 10 in the Irish 1,000 Guineas, which was undoubtedly a career-best performance and a repeat here would give her a good chance of making the frame again. However, she failed to duplicate that form when a lacklustre last of nine in the Pretty Polly back at the same venue next time when stepped up an extra couple of furlongs. 

She appeared a blatant non-stayer from my reckoning and I just cannot comprehend why she will appreciate this even longer distance. If anything, she needs a return to a mile, where her form is transparently better. If she can manifest herself over this trip, she would have definite place claims, but I have a suspicion that she is a doubtful stayer and others appeal more. 

Library

• Trainer: Aidan O’Brien 
• Jockey: TBC
• Odds: 80/1
• Form: 256417

 

Another from the Ballydoyle camp, who won a Listed event two starts ago but was well beaten in a Group 3 when last spotted and is another who will need to find plenty of improvement to hold place claims let alone win the race. She also has plenty to find with Azazat, who was two places ahead of her in the Munster Oaks. The evidence suggests she will struggle at the top level. 

Lumiere Rock

• Trainer: Joseph O’Brien 
• Jockey: TBC
• Odds: 10/1
• Form: 221422

 

Trained by Aidan’s son Joseph and has continued to run to a consistent level. She won a Group 3 at this course back in October and has placed in a pair of pattern-class events the last two times, including when second in the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot. 

She couldn’t make any inroads on the winner Warm Heart who was two-and-a-half lengths clear of her but she stuck to the task well to be a clear second, where she had nearly two lengths to spare over Bluestocking, who was back in third. 

When looking at the market. I don’t see why this filly should be trading at double the odds of Ralph Beckett’s charge given she comfortably had her held in behind last-time-out and we know she acts on this course as well based on her big-win here last year. 

She should have a lot more to come, won’t lack pace nor stamina and will be bidding to hand her trainer a first win in the race, so I wouldn’t put anyone off her each-way, though she might find one or two too strong. 

Savethelastdance 

• Trainer: Aidan O’Brien 
• Jockey: TBC
• Odds: 5/4
• Form: 5112 

 

This daughter of Galileo is a red-hot favourite to go one better here than when second in the English version at Epsom, where she chased home Soul Sister. 

She had previously bolted up in the Chester Oaks before running a good race last-time-out despite not looking comfortable with the track, beaten just under two lengths. 

She’s yet to run at the Curragh but this course should suit her better and she’s the top-rated in the field. That said, if you look through the form of her Oaks second, you could argue the race wasn’t the strongest of renewals.

For instance, nearly all of the horses she had in behind have all been comprehensively beaten since, so the form has a questionable look to it. 

I don’t think this is a high-class renewal mind, so if she’s going to land a Group 1, it has to be in this race and is the one they all have to beat. 

Warm Heart 

• Trainer: Aidan O’Brien 
• Jockey: TBC
• Odds: 7/2
• Form: 42111

 

Has progressed with every start and has twice beaten Bluestocking, including when winning the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot last time by a couple of lengths. She hit the line strongly that day and should have no issue over this extra furlong. 

She will need to prove herself at the highest level but that’s a possibility given the relentless progress she has made. She handles all types of ground and should have plenty more to come. 

Whether she can beat her higher-rated stablemate is open to debate but she’s earned her place in the field and won’t go down without a fight. 

Irish Oaks Prediction 

In his attempt to become the most successful trainer in the Classic's history, Aidan O’Brien has the front pair in the market and it would come as a surprise to most if one or both of his leading contenders can’t fight out the finish. 

However, I am optimistic something at a bigger price might get involved here and steal a place and it’s possible the Dermot Weld-trained AZAZAT (best price 16/1) could be that filly to serve it up to the two big guns entering the big league. 

I am under no illusion that this race is tougher than last time and she needs to find some improvement but at the same time, she cannot be underestimated on the back of a good second in the Munster Oaks. 

I don’t want to oppose the favourite SAVETHELASTDANCE (best price 5/4) though, who is the highest-rated in the field and ran a cracker in the Epsom Oaks when second despite not looking at all comfortable on the track. 

This course will suit her better, she’s open to further improvement and connections are confident about her chances. Her stablemate Warm Heart is a worthy rival but this filly can have her measure.