Architect Tips shares his betting tips and prediction for the Sussex Stakes 2023 on Wednesday at Glorious Goodwood.
15:35 Goodwood
The Group 1 Sussex Stakes is the headline attraction on Day 2 of Glorious Goodwood 2023. All eyes will be on the odds-on favourite Paddington who will aim to follow in the footsteps of some greatest milers to have won this prestigious contest by landing Wednesday’s feature and provide his trainer with a sixth win in the race.
Will Paddington succeed? Or will something else dethrone him?
Goodwood Tips Wednesday: Sussex Stakes Tips
Advised Bets
- Facteur Cheval w/o Paddington - 1 point @ 11/2
Sussex Stakes Runners Guide
Let’s now take a look at all the declared runners for this year’s renewal.
Aldaary
- Trainer: William Haggas
- Jockey: Jim Crowley
- Odds: 14/1
- Form: 711142
Jim Crowley has a good record in this race, riding the winner in three of the last six renewals, and he rides this son of Territories who was last seen chasing home Master Of The Seas. That form wouldn’t be enough to trouble the top-two in the betting though, so he is another who needs more at this tougher level.
He hasn’t quite looked at his best in two starts this season either and will need to find a lot more in the locker if he is to match what Baaeed did for the stable 12 months ago. He could run well and sneak into the frame but is unlikely to take the top honours and I am not sure where he can find improvement from.
Chindit
- Trainer: Richard Hannon
- Jockey: Pat Dobbs
- Odds: 25/1
- Form: 168126
The likely pace angle, who can front-run and has been in good form again this season but was behind Inspiral at Royal Ascot when only sixth and has work to do to reverse that form let alone beat the favourite.
The other caveat is the five-year-old has run in nine Group 1 races without getting his head in front and only beat one horse home in this last year but has looked better than ever this term before his latest below-par effort.
He did return a very good, career-best second in the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury behind Modern Games but is vulnerable against a few of these and I am sure connections will be satisfied if he can finish in the top-three.
Facteur Cheval
- Trainer: Jerome Reynier
- Jockey: Maxime Guyon
- Odds: 16/1
- Form: 241323
The interesting runner is French-raider Facteur Cheval, who won his first four starts, including five wins last season and has been consistent in defeat since. He came close in the Group 1 Prix D'ispahan Stakes last-time-out when narrowly beaten into third behind Anmaat, where he was a big eye-catcher having pulled far too hard throughout.
His form ties in closely with Inspiral and it is possible he can give the favourite plenty to think about with ideal conditions. His dad, Ribchester, returned a beaten favourite in this race six years ago and he is aiming to avenge that defeat. He might not have won in three starts this term but this has probably been his main aim all season, so he is of interest.
Inspiral
- Trainer: John & Thady Gosden
- Jockey: Frankie Dettori
- Odds: 4/1
- Form: 112162
John and Thady Gosden’s Inspiral is the biggest threat to Paddington, according to the bookmakers at least. This three-time Group 1-winning filly went close in the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot last-time-out when beaten a neck into second.
I am rather sceptical about the overall form of that race as a few of her main rivals in the betting failed to perform to their best and she still couldn’t get the job done nor get past Triple Time in what was a great opportunity for her to take the spoils.
Her trainer admittedly stated she was lacking peak-fitness but she has gone well fresh before so it was a little disappointing she couldn’t win and the last time she did win at the highest level, she only scraped home from Light Infantry and Erevann in the Jacques le Marois in France. More is needed.
Charyn
- Trainer: Roger Varian
- Jockey: David Egan
- Odds: 50/1
- Form: 128438
A Group 2 winner as a two-year-old on soft ground and has twice made the frame in Group One company, including a good third in the St James’s Palace, as well as a previous fourth in the Irish 2000 Guineas.
He was well-held behind Paddington in both of those outings though and was only eighth in the Haras d'Etreham Prix Jean Prat when last spotted. The return to this trip will suit but a place is probably the best he can hope for and his price reflects his little chance.
Paddington
- Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
- Jockey: Ryan Moore
- Odds: 4/9
- Form: 11111
Aidan O’Brien’s charge has made relentless progress since finishing fifth on debut at Ascot, winning six times on the bounce, including three consecutive Group 1 contests in less than two months.
He has fast become one of the best and most developed horses in a single calendar season, less than four months so to speak, graduating from handicaps to becoming a three-time winner at the highest level.
Having won the Irish 2,000 Guineas in May, he took the scalp of English 2,000 guineas winner Chaldean in the St James’s Palace and then defeated Emily Upjohn in the Coral-Eclipse in a thrilling finish.
Proven on good, good to soft, soft and heavy, conditions won’t faze this high-class three-year-old and the course should suit him, as he is a very straightforward and well-balanced individual. The last time his connections won this was back in 2016 with The Gurkha, who also had a busy campaign before winning this race.
He will be up against five rivals in total and while his odds don’t offer much value, I am not sure he can be taken on for various reasons, even with the anticipation of no pace but connections don’t seem worried about this with no pacemaker from the stable in the line-up.
After all, he is the highest-rated runner in the field at 125 and will receive four-pounds from Inspiral who is rated five pounds lower, his nearest rival on ratings. His body of work, attitude and maturity, plus his unrivalled form-lines, will make him an extremely tough horse to beat.
Sussex Stakes Prediction
If Paddington was around the 4/6 mark in the betting, he would be worth a 1 point win play but given he is trading shorter, I can’t put him up at that price.
Instead, I will recommend FACTEUR CHEVAL in the “w/o Paddington” market, who could represent a bit of value, in which he is available at 11/2 with William Hill, Sky Bet and BetVictor via the oddschecker grid. Best of luck with your punts for the rest of the week.
