Andy Holding previews next week's Juddmonte International at York.
Juddmonte International York 2023
Attentions now turn to York for the next big festival where undoubtedly the main event comes courtesy of the Juddmonte International, which will hopefully kick start what should turn out to be a brilliant four days on the Knavesmire.
Juddmonte International York 2023: Ante-Post Preview
As it stands, it looks to be a great race on paper but, as there appears to be doubts over quite a few of the main participants, we might even get a situation whereby there aren’t enough runners on the day to provide three places for normal each-way betting purposes.
With that in mind, it is probably a decent time to highlight how the race might look in a week’s time and pinpoint any value to be currently sourced.
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Juddmonte International Odds
| Horse | Best Odds | Worst Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Paddington | 6/4 | 6/5 |
| Mostahdaf | 7/2 | 11/4 |
| Desert Crown | 5/1 | 4/1 |
| King Of Steel | 8/1 | 13/2 |
| Bay Bridge | 14/1 | 10/1 |
| Auguste Rodin | 14/1 | 10/1 |
| Alfalia | 16/1 | 10/1 |
Who is the favourite for the Juddmonte International?
Head of the current ante post lists is Paddington, who has gone from being a horse of some promise in the spring, to be the preeminent colt of his generation between a mile and 1m2f. His victories in Eclipse at Sandown and, more recently in the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood, confirmed his superiority over the older horses and up until now, he shows no signs of flagging from his industrious campaign.
Whether he can keep churning out the results, however, remains to be seen and, as York has a habit of testing the make-up of any horse, he makes little appeal at his current price (generally 5/4).
Mostahdaf represents a yard who have a fine record in this race in recent times and the son of Frankel, fresh off the back of his victory in the Prince Of Wales’s victory at Royal Ascot, has obvious claims of adding to their tally. Although he has won on soft ground, a faster surface suits him best and having gone well fresh in the past, a nice two-month break should see him arrives on the Knavesmire at fever pitch.
Desert Crown seems to have had more setbacks than Dominic Calvert-Lewin since winning the Derby, so even allowing for the fact he can be brilliant at his best; he clearly comes with risks attached. A late scratch from The King George at Ascot last month, punters who are prepared to take the current 5/1 quotes will be hoping Sir Michael Stoute can once again work his magic.
Presuming all is well with Paddington in the build up to next week, it is therefore highly unlikely Aidan O’Brien will look to run Auguste Rodin or Luxembourg, especially as the Irish Champion Stakes is just around the corner, while the same comments apply to Derby runner-up, King Of Steel, who also has the Group 1 at Leopardstown as a possible assignment.
The Ballydoyle maestro also has seven other entries at this stage but, as they all appear to be unrealistic targets, it soon becomes apparent we are likely to be dealing with a single-figure field once final declarations have been announced.
Of the rest who seem unlikely to face the starter on the Knavesmire, the recent exploits of both Onesto and Nashwa mean they will be saved for targets further down the line and that goes for Pyledriver who, in any case, surely needs 1m4f to be at his best.
Of the four not mentioned up till now, The Foxes has already got solid C&D next to his name courtesy of his victory in the Dante earlier in the campaign, so there is a case to be made for him being a reasonable each-way proposition at his current 16/1 quotes and if there were to be some ease in the ground on the day, both Bay Bridge and My Prospero could at least be added to the conversation.
Andy Holding Tips for the Juddmonte International 2023
The standout pick at the prices at moment is ALFLAILA, who booked his ticket for this race thanks to his taking success over at York on his seasonal bow. Off the track for 294 days after suffering a setback while out in Bahrain, it would have been easy to forgive him if he came up a little short against fitter rivals on the Knavesmire a month ago, but to his great credit, he managed to come through one of his toughest tests so far to date with flying colours.
As per usual, the son of Dark Angel was held up at the rear with a view to pouncing late and as he has done so many times in the past, he exhibited a smart turn of foot to gun down his rival’s close home. Considering he was relatively easy to back on the day, it is safe to assume he will come on significantly for that initial outing and with that victory taking his stats on the Knavesmire to 211, it is also clear he is well suited by the vagaries of the track.
Although not proven in Group 1 company yet, his numbers suggest he not a million miles off that level and hailing from a stable who have the habit of gradually progressing a horse of this nature to the very top – like Hukum and Anmaat - the four-year-old is entitled to a good deal more respect than his current position in the market affords him.
