Wednesday Racing Tips from Andy Holding

A race where the market is dominated by Caernarfon and Running Lion - two fillies both taking a huge drop down in class from their duties against Group 1 company – but with quite a few firms offering four places, it may pay to look towards the likes of STATE OCCASION (best price 11/2) and ROUSAY (best price 20/1) for a spot of each-way value.

The former has only had the one start so far this season and although she failed to cut much ice against Free Wind & Co in the Group 2 Middleton Stakes at York back in May, at the same time her effort wasn’t without promise. After getting slightly outpaced as the tempo increased three out, she rallied well inside the final furlong to finish a respectable fourth and considering she’d been off the track for 223 days, connections would have no doubt been more than encouraged for her prospects going forward.

Off another reasonable amount of time since, there has to be a slight concern about her current fitness levels but providing she is capable of performing close to her best, Ralph Beckett’s filly has a decent chance of keeping the excellent run of her stable going in the right direction.

The latter caused a bit of shock in this race last season, as she was only rated 85 at the time, but it would come as no surprise if she were to outrun her odds again this time around.

Disappointing on her first two starts of the campaign, her performance in finishing fourth at Goodwood last time was a big step in the right direction and considering the ground would have been nowhere near to her liking, extra merit is attached.

Much more suited to a quicker surface, it’s also worth pointing out she has form figures at today’s track that read 2421 and at her morning odds, she deserves to be supported accordingly to maintain that fine record.

SOMETHING NICE (best price 9/4) only found one too good in a hugely competitive handicap at The Curragh four days ago and a repeat of something along the same lines should see Michael Mulvany’s gelding very tough to beat in this similar environment.

Down the field the time before when surprisingly asked to race over six furlongs, connections were wise to step him back up to a distance in-keeping with all his previous profile and although he was sent off an unconsidered 16-1 chance, he almost proved good enough to pull off a shock.

Staying on well in the closing stages off the good gallop set, the son of Estidhkaar pulled well clear of those positioned over towards the far only to find the well-supported Crystal Black sneaking up the stands’ side rail to come and pick his pocket in the dying strides.

Off since May prior to that excellent effort, it’s safe to assume he will have benefitted greatly from that run and having also proven he is just as effective on a surface livelier than he has normally faced in the past (his only victory came on heavy), the lightly-raced three-year-old can go one place better.

YOUCRACKMEUP (NAP) (best price 3/1) really impressed when reducing her 12 opponents to their knees at The Galway Festival last time out and a similar powerful front running role is likely to see Jessica Harrington’s inmate a tough nut to crack at a track that often compliments horses who adopt her tactics.

Seemingly a totally different proposition since fitted with blinkers, the daughter of Cracksman was once again aggressively ridden (similar to when winning at Roscommon) with a view to getting her rivals on the stretch at Ballybrit and having set strong fractions right from the start, she maintained the gallop all the way up the hill to the line.

Unsurprisingly, given the pace from the outset, the final speed figure was very good for the grade and with the third going on to score back at the same venue later in the week (even the ninth ran well over hurdles two days ago), the form already looks reliable.

Open to more improvement, the only confirmed front runner in today’s field is likely to give it another good lash at the head of affairs.