2023 York Ebor Festival Tips: Thursday Racing Tips from Architect

To kickstart a relatively busy column with tips in each race, the Charlie Appleby-trained STAR OF MYSTERY (best price 15/2) is a massive price and does rate very attractive each-way value with every chance that she will really serve it up to this favourite. I think the market has missed a trick. 

This filly couldn’t get to grips with Carla’s Way on debut when second but bolted up in her next couple of starts, including when a four-length winner in a Listed event at Newmarket, which was backed up by the clock and that marked her down as a seriously promising prospect.

She was then sent off 1-6 favourite for a Group 2 back at Newmarket and even though she was turned over by Persian Dreamer, a lot of positives can be clutched from her effort in defeat given she raced keenly and clearly wasn’t at her best in what was a messy and tactically-run renewal. 

In spite of everything that went wrong for her, she was only beaten just over a length and the winner had previously run a cracker to finish fourth in the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot, so the form is a solid piece of form. Unlike Relief Rally and Beautiful Diamond, she is proven over this distance.

Given Charlie Appleby’s star-power in his stable and his team being in good form, this is his third runner and only two-year-old runner at this week’s Festival. Only rated three pounds inferior to the favourite, she is better than what she shown last time, so she cannot be written off (which the market has) and is therefore a reasonable each-way bet at the odds. 

The Goffs UK Harry Beeby Premier Yearling Stakes might seem competitive at first glance but the standout and authentic bet in my eyes is John Quinn’s TWILIGHT ROMANCE (best price 9/2) who handled this course extremely well when returning an impressive winner here two starts back and must be considered a major threat to all with plenty going for him. 

He had shaped with lots of promise and potential when a close-up third on debut at Haydock before easily beating We Never Stop on level terms here next time over this course-and-distance. The latter reversed the form at Pontefract but he was conceding the winner four pounds and will receive a significant six pounds turnaround in this contest. 

I will be gobsmacked if he isn’t a 100+ rated horse based on his form to date and he is ideally drawn in stall 5 and is John Quinn’s only runner on the card too. The likes of Dragon Leader and Ambushed bring potential but the form the selection has produced has more substance and I just cannot see him out of the frame with five places generously widely available. 

Never the easiest of races to solve is the Clipper Handicap. However, this might go the way of Charlie Johnston, who has five runners and two of those really taken my interest, worthy of an each-way bet with five places widely on offer.

THE GATEKEEPER (best price 11/1) won from only a pound lower mark (91) in this grade in May and has held his form well since which led to a career-best performance last time when second in the Golden Mile at Goodwood off this same mark of 92.

In that race, he was only beaten half-a-length, faring best of the low-drawn runners and William Buick takes the ride here. He would only need to repeat that performance to have a big say in the final analysis of this race, so at quite generous odds, he appeals. 

Charlie Johnston’s stable jockey Joe Fanning has opted to ride Ripon scorer SPIRIT CATCHER (best price 16/1) though, and his presence in the saddle regardless of his mount’s easy win last time makes him of serious interest from a betting stance with the five places on offer. 

This four-year-old hasn’t always been the most consistent but he does have some strong form to his name and a six pounds penalty for that latest success seems fair as he absolutely battered his opponents by over five lengths and has scope to surpass this mark. 

He was down the field in his only previous visit here but is a much stronger horse now and that latest win was a career-best performance. He is likely to be up near the pace and being turned out quickly following that win last time, his connections must be bullish about his chances here. 

I reckon the Irish will hold the edge in the Pertemps Network Yorkshire Oaks. I don’t believe for one second that Aidan O’Brien’s SAVETHELASTDANCE (best price 9/2) is ground dependent as she finished a very good second in an Epsom Oaks on similar ground. 

She will get nine pounds from Al Husn who is rated only a pound superior and that weight concession is incredibly advantageous in a race like this. This filly showed tremendous heart and resilience to lift the Irish Oaks last time and her connections allegedly said she is in top condition and been working well ahead of this target. 

Her progressive profile and form to date contrasts her to be such a good bet at the odds here and what’s even more striking about her claims is she is open to further improvement. I assume Ryan Moore will be quite positive on her here given she has buckets of stamina and class. 

Adding to that, Irish Oaks winners have an outstanding record in this race as well, whilst Aidan O’Brien has won this race six times. I would have her much shorter in the betting and the high-quality materials she has in her inventory should see her hard to stop in her quest for a second Group 1 of her career. 

I am also content to have an each-way bet on a bigger-price runner in the Yorkshire Oaks, ROSSCARBERY (best price 18/1) who has been a model of consistency in her career to date and has raised her game every season. 

This mare won a pair of Group 3 events last year and came close to winning a Group 1 in France when beaten a neck into second. After a couple more creditable efforts in Group 1 company, she won the Munster Oaks for a second time on her reappearance. 

Her fourth in the Pretty Polly is a decent bit of form too, given she finished fourth, beaten only by about five lengths after being badly hampered a furlong out. Her latest second over a mile and six furlongs on soft ground was decent considering the winner Emily Dickinson has subsequently finished second in the Goodwood Cup. 

She deserves more credit than she has been given and has proved she has the qualities to mix it at the highest level under the right circumstances. Her form this season has been good and even though this will be her toughest challenge to date, she must be respected. 

This daughter of Galileo, ONE EVENING (best price 5/1), has firmly been in my notebook since her eye-catching second at Pontefract, where she came from last to take second and be nearest the finish after not getting the clearest of runs, whereas the winner had a smooth passage throughout the contest. 

She had previously run well from the front in a Group 3 here when ridden too aggressively and her connections have booked Ryan Moore to ride her again. With plenty in her favour, and recognising she has been kept fresh for the race, she must go close. 

Ed Walker’s SCENIC (best price 11/1) also appeals at quite generous odds. This filly has markedly upped her game this season, finishing fifth on her return behind Warm Heart at Newbury before a fine fourth in France. 

She then raised her game to finish a staying-on third here last time, which suggested she is worth the step up in distance. She is drawn well in stall 3 and Oisin Murphy is booked to ride. Her form is as good as any of these, so she’s a solid each-way play with four places available. 

Andrew Balding’s ARAGON CASTLE (best price 5/1) looked badly in need of the experience on debut but proved to be a lot sharper for that introduction by easily scoring at Epsom next time, form that has worked out well, as he beat a subsequent winner off level weights by three lengths. 

He improved again to finish second at Chester under a penalty and will be much more suited to the return to better ground. This opening mark of 86 is fair and his trainer/jockey won this race two years ago. He is recommended as a win-only bet given his price is on the single-figure side. 

Aragon Castle’s stablemate, GUSHING GOLD (best price 14/1), cannot be discounted at an even bigger price though, whose placed in three of her four starts and the only time she didn’t make the frame was when she finished a solid ninth of 17 in the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot. 

That was a really good effort on just her second lifetime start and her debut second to Zabriskie Point is also good form as well, as the winner ran a big race here yesterday when fourth of 16 in another valuable nursery event. William Buick will ride and his mount makes plenty of each-way appeal with five places available with most firms. 

In the final race on the card, I like the look of the consistent COCO JAMBOO (best price 25/1) who is Marco Botti’s only runner on the card and is likely to get the strong pace she requires to be seen to maximum effect with Andrea Atzeni in the saddle. 

She has not been out of the frame in all of her starts and is back over her optimum distance having been keeping on well over six furlongs when making the frame in her last three starts. Her sole win came over this trip at Newmarket and a mark of 80 has underestimated her chances. 

She should have more to come in a race like this and her strong, late burst of speed should come into play at a course that often suits hold-up horses. With the five places generally available, it would come as no surprise if she turned in a new personal best.