2023 Cambridgeshire Handicap Tips, Runners & Prediction for Newmarket

With the Flat season drawing ever closer to its conclusion, Saturday’s card at Newmarket features the Cambridgeshire Handicap, a race that can often cultivate an air of unpredictability in terms of identifying the winner.

For instance, you only have to reflect on the large statistical odds of previous winner’s with 17 of the last 25 winners returning an SP of 10/1 or bigger. In the last six editions of the race, three winners have returned at odds of 50/1, 40/1 twice and 25/1.

To put this devilishly-looking handicap into clearer perspective, it is transparently a minefield to assemble at the best of times. However, trends and statistics have organically proven a pivotal factor into gathering vital information and forming some sort of a shortlist.

A few of the key components include the age bracket with ALL of the last 21 winners aged six or younger, while the draw is an essential guide as well given 17 of the last 21 winners won from a double-figure stall. In the last 21 renewals the average winning SP is 22/1.

Without further ado, let’s have a closer observation of this year’s field, looking at most runners who are 25/1 or shorter whilst trying to find one or two bets. Make sure to take advantage of the bookmakers variously paying extra places.

Cambridgeshire Handicap Runners Guide

Greek Order (9/2F)

Trainer Roger Charlton is intimate with having gambles in this particular race. Three years ago he had Tempus go off a well-backed 9/2 and while the result didn’t materialise into success when he could only finish sixth, if roll back the clock to 2005, his Blue Monday made a mockery off a mark of 99 by landing a nice gamble at an SP 5/1.

His representative for this year’s renewal, co-trained by Roger’s son Harry, is Greek Order, who’s a warm favourite to potentially continue the stables fine association with this race. He placed in his first three races before winning both starts since going handicapping and there’s reason to think he is still ahead of his mark, whilst a good draw in stall 25 is beneficial.

This son of Kingman was impressive in dismantling subsequent winner, Maximilian Caesar, off a mark of 85 last time, as the latter defied a mark of 89 at the St Leger Festival. In spite of the handicapper applying more pressure by raising his mark a further 10Ib, he probably hasn’t finished improving and is a full-brother to the formerly 112-rated Sangarius.

Dual Identity (10/1)

Last year’s third, Dual Identity, whose trained by William Knight, is back for more as he will attempt to try and go two places better this time around in which he booked his return ticket to Newmarket after he returned a smooth winner the Virgin Bet Handicap at Sandown.

This has been the five-year-old’s main aim all season and he was very impressive last time so he is entitled to respect. However, an 8Ib rise from his revised mark means he is now up to a career-high mark of 95, which is incidentally 4Ib higher than when third in this 12 months ago.

With that said, a new personal best is very much required now and I’m not sure he has much room for manoeuvre off this mark. A place might be the best he can hope for again, given he’s vulnerable to either a potential group-class horse or a better handicapped horse in the field.

Oviedo (10/1)

Ed Bethell has a decent chance of picking up prize money at the very least with his very smart three-year-old Oviedo, who ran a hugely constructive race on handicap debut at York last-time-out to finish second behind Astro King in view of the fact he was drawn terribly out-wide and raced keenly throughout the contest.

Not only that, he was hampered mid-race and came through strongly under a conservative ride to be nearest the finish. A 2Ib rise seems lenient and it was only as a two-year-old he was tested in deeper water in which he was third to Chaldean in the Group 3 Tattersalls Acomb Stakes at York over an inadequate trip of 7 furlongs.

He won the Racing TV Zetland Gold Cup over one mile two furlongs at Redcar back in May off a mark of 96 and was a very good third behind Al Aasy on his penultimate start at Newbury in a Listed race. He is collectively a good horse when seen to best effect and, under the right setup, which he should get here, he could be the proverbial underdog with improvement to come but his draw in stall 1 is a negative.

Saga (12/1)

Representing the King and Queen in the famous silks, Saga warmed up for this with a solid third in a Listed event at Sandown last time and previously ran well in the Wolferton Stakes when fifth of 16. This race will see him back in a handicap off a career-high mark of 106 but he went close the last time he ran in a handicap.

He was beaten just a head by King Of Conquest in the Howden Suffolk over course-and- distance and would have won had he endured a clear run. A 4Ib higher mark does ask more of his credentials but the present of Ryan Moore is a positive and the form of that second was boosted by the winner earlier this week who pushed My Prospero close at Goodwood.

Carrying a monstrous weight in such a fiercely-competitive race could be a daunting task but he might not need to improve to go close if he can repeat his second here in May which is amongst the best form on offer. He has place possibilities at least with track, trip and conditions to suit, a good draw in 15 plus another top jockey booked to ride. His proven experience in a large-field scenario is a bonus.

Liberty Lane (14/1)

It would be fair to say trainer Karl Burke is having a great season and to top it off with success in this race with his main player Liberty Lane would be some feat. He isn’t without a chance either given he’s open to improvement and has the right sort of profile for this race.

Only seen once as a juvenile, he won his maiden at Nottingham in easy fashion before running an excellent race to finish second to subsequent Hampton Court winner, Waipiro, where he was attempting to give the winner seven pounds, who is now rated 107+.

He was pitched into the Group 2 Dante Stakes on his next start at York, where he ran well for a long way to finish seventh and the form has been positively advertised since. For instance, the third, Continuous, emerged as the subsequent winner of the St Leger at Doncaster.

The ground was seemingly too quick when down the field in the Golden Gate but with more juice in the ground, he finished a close-up fourth at Newmarket next time and out-battled the useful Sonny Liston in a big-field assignment.

This extra mile, should be within range now that he’s learning to settle plus a strong pace will increase his chances. He is due to go up 4Ib for that success but the fact he is eligible to compete in this off the same mark as last time before his revised mark kicks in, makes him of interest plus he is nicely drawn in stall 22.

Astro King (16/1)

Astro King, trained by Daniel and Claire Kubler, is tasked with the burden of top-weight but that’s due to a career-best performance that he produced at York last-time-out when defying a mark of 102. While he has been hit with a 5Ib rise, which puts him up to a career-high mark of 107, but he’s clearly at the top of his game at the moment and cannot be taken lightly.

A high slot in stall 35 can be recognised as a positive and I don’t think he will be hindered by his big weight either as he’s a well-built individual. He has established himself as a good horse under the right circumstances and has placed twice in a Royal Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot. With conditions up his alley, he’s an each-way player but, for win purposes, he’s vulnerable.

Majestic (16/1)

Majestic gained his biggest win of his career in this race two years ago when winning quite easily at an SP 25/1 when trained by Jack’s father Mick and is back for more in the care of his son this time. Since that success, he has been running with extreme credit and warmed up for this with a decent showing at Chepstow last time when fourth.

He is only 4Ib higher than he won this in 2021 and is 3Ib lower than when second in a good handicap at Epsom back in June, so he’s not at all badly treated still at present. Whether he can win this for a second time is open to debate but he should give his running and outrun his odds plus he has been dealt with a favourable slot in stall 29. Benoit De La Sayette is a good jockey to have on side as well.

Terwada (16/1)

One of the least exposed candidates is Ed Walker’s Terwada who has improved since going up in distance, winning back-to-back starts over a mile, including on the other course here two starts ago on handicap debut.

Despite his lack of experience for such a big handicap, he ran quite well to finish 7th of 19 at York last time and that effort in defeat will have taught him a lot given it was his first time tackling a large field.

He has plenty more to offer and the step up in trip will suit as he’s mostly finished his races with a flourish. A few others might be better treated but Tom Marquand keeps the ride and this race has probably been this youngsters primarily objective.

Tyrrhenian Sea (20/1)

An interesting runner from the Roger Varian stable is Tyrrhenian Sea, who’s dropped in class ahead of his return after contesting Listed/Group 3 events the last two times and Aidan Keeley can claim a valuable 3Ib which is essential for a race of this nature. He is unexposed compared to a few of his rivals.

He has predominantly been campaigned on the all-weather, where he’s gained all three wins so far in his career and while he has yet to replicate that form on the turf, he did run a good race under a big weight at York in the Clipper Logistics Handicap last year to finish third off a mark of 105, so he is capable and has only had the four starts on the grass, too.

Technically, he is 3Ib lower for this race with his jockey’s claim taken into account and although he hasn’t been seen for a while, this has probably been his main target this season. He is clearly a talented horse and should run well but to gain a first win on the turf in a race like this after 180+ days off the track is slightly off-putting.

Bopedro (20/1)

Trainer David O’Meara is always feared in large-field handicaps and being the choice of Danny Tudhope, Bopedro could also play a leading role.

His overall record at Newmarket reads 131 and after winning here a couple of starts back, he was unlucky not to finish closer in his latest visit to Ireland at Leopardstown when dropped in trip to seven furlongs to contest the Sovereign Path.

He finished 9th of 17 in the end but the result proved inconclusive in regards to how he performed as he didn’t get a clear run at virtually every stage before flying late to be nearest the finish.

His mark has been left unaltered for this race and he is drawn well in 29. This race will be run to suit and if he gets clear daylight, he could reward each-way supporters. It is feasible to see him running well with plenty in his favour.

Eagles Way (25/1)

A typical improver from the Sir Mark Prescott team is Eagles Way, who won four on the bounce last summer and ran well the next twice when upped in grade. He ran well for a long way at Sandown last time when fourth and probably has room for a bit more improvement.

I have no qualms about his form but he is still 11Ib higher than when last successful in a weaker race. His draw is a positive but he might find a few others better-handicapped and previous course form can play it’s part, something he doesn’t have.

Epic Poet (50/1)

Freddie and Martyn Meade will be represented with an eye-catching runner in the form of Epic Poet, formerly trained in France, who will make his handicap debut after just two starts in the UK which have come in Listed and Group 3 events.

Without sugar-coating those performances, he has been well beaten in each of those but it is very interesting to see him pitched into such a high-quality race on just his third start for the stable and a mark of 101 might have significantly underestimated his credentials with George Wood in the plate.

The four-year-old might not have offered much so far in the UK but he’s better than that and his French form backs up this opinion given he’s placed in various Listed events (did win one of them) and is open to a good deal of improvement compared to quite a number of these.

Ideally, a higher draw would have been preferred but he’s not short on ability and could have been found an easier opportunity elsewhere. He could be a dark horse for the race at double-figure odds and I have seen worse outsiders in this contest.

Cambridgeshire Handicap Tips & Prediction

As ever, this is an extremely tough puzzle to solve and it was difficult to come to a conclusion. However, the David O’Meara-trained BOPEDRO (best price 20/1) does appeal from an each-way point of view despite the age trend being against him as a seven-year-old.

He has vital course form, is effective when a strong pace is on offer and has his favoured conditions. His double-figure draw is handy and Danny Tudhope gets on well with him, so he can be backed accordingly each-way with six places generally available.

I’ll also have a second dart at the race in the shape of EPIC POET (best price 50/1) who will make his handicap debut off a mark of 101 after contesting a pair of pattern-class events in his first two starts for this stable.

He has failed to beat a rival in each of those starts but it’s worth noting he had won and placed in several Listed races in France, so he does have a touch of class and the whole surroundings of this assignment might just see him spark into life for his current connections.

With most firms paying up to six places, this unexposed four-year-old, who’s best days for this stable are ahead of him, could be a serious each-way contender at very generous odds with more to come.