Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2023: Tips, Runners & Prediction

This Sunday will see Europe’s most reputable and esteemed race, the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, take place in Paris-Longchamp with a field size of 15 due to go to post for the €5 million race.

This year’s renewal has the makings to be a belter and most eyes will be drawn to the undefeated favourite Ace Impact who will bid to become the first Colt since Dalakhani in 2003 to complete the Prix du Jockey Club and Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe double in the same year.

He will have to overcome a host of challengers from various nations trying to spoil the party though, with the representation of Germany, UK, Ireland, France and of course Japan all featured in the final field.

Let’s take a closer look at the main players before giving a final conclusion as to who might come out on top with a recommended tip or two.

Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Runners Guide

Ace Impact (3/1F)

A worthy favourite based on form, speed figures and his overall profile. He has beaten every horse put in his path and ran a perfect preparatory race when taking the Group 2 Prix Guillaume d'Ornano in good style last time.

His win in the French Derby on his penultimate start was nothing short of brilliance, as he broke the track record which was previously set by Sottsass, who claimed the Arc on his final career start.

In winning that contest with a high-class performance, he provided trainer Jean-Claude Rouget with a trainer winner in the last five renewals when his acceleration proved too much for the likes of Big Rock and Marhaba Ya Sanafi, winning by more than three lengths.

Big Rock has since finished runner-up in two more Group 1 contests, while Marhaba Ya Sanafi was bidding for a classic double after winning the Poule d’Essai des Poulains.

Adding to that, a few of the other beaten horses have come out and won since, such as Continuous, who recently won the St Leger at Doncaster.

He didn’t need to be at his best to win a trial for this last time in which he won with a shade to spare over Joseph O’Bren’s Group 1 National Stakes winner Al Riffa.

There’s no doubt he buckets of talent coupled with a potent turn of foot and is the correct favourite but this race will place more emphasis on stamina rather than just speed.

He will be entering unknown territory trip-wise plus he will be tackling an even deeper race against some bang in-form horses who have already established themselves as being effective over this distance.

More complications within his chances is not only the distance, but also the ground, course plus his hold-up style of racing, as he will need all the luck in-running to execute a plain-sailing trip through the field.

Does his skinny price represent much value worthy of a bet? I’m not so sure. Still, his chance is there for all to see, especially being in receipt of weight. He is the most exciting runner in the field.

Continuous (6/1)

Continuous has improved throughout the season, who has won his last couple of starts impressively. He stayed on well to take second behind King Of Steel in the King Edward VII Stakes at Ascot when stepped up in trip before going one better in the Great Voltigeur at York.

In no uncertain terms, he then certified his stamina over further when producing a career-best performance in the Group 1 St Leger at Doncaster over one mile six furlongs, winning by more than two lengths.

This is, however, no doubt a much tougher race, which also comes as a bit of an afterthought by connections given it was not a long-term aim before he succeeded Doncaster last time.

However, he was supplemented at an expensive late-fee and further improvement is a distinct possibility plus he’s been dealt with a nice slot in stall 7. The main caveat is the relatively quick turnaround and, from a betting point of view, he looks a touch too short.

Hukum (6/1)

After returning a breathtaking winner of the Coronation Cup, it looked as though Owen Burrows’ Hukum had suffered a career-ending injury but this high-class five-year-old has looked better than ever since his belated return, winning both his starts.

He reappeared in the Brigadier Gerard at Sandown when in a matchup against last year’s undefeated Derby winner Desert Crown and despite not getting an ideal passage, he dug deep to overhaul the odds-on favourite in the closing stages.

That was the perfect stepping-stone towards the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot and after travelling best, he encountered a pulsating duel with Westover where again, his tenacity and attitude was evident as he got the job done by a whisker.

The older he has got, the better he has looked, as every aspect of him is nothing sort of professionalism and his strong-travelling style coupled with his turn of foot and bravery will undoubtedly serve him well this weekend.

He has a gorgeous profile for this contest and with the sun expected to be beaming down on Paris with conditions set to be fast, he will be in his element and will arrive into the race on the back of a career-best performance.

He is just about the strongest candidate of the British-trained representatives in his bid to provide trainer Owen Burrows and jockey Jim Crowley with a first Arc success. He’s sure to be on anybody’s shortlist and is an appealing price but he will do well to overcome his bad draw in stall 14. He’s classy to do that though.

Westover (7/1)

Ralph Beckett will be hoping his improved model, Westover, can improve on last year’s sixth in the race and this strong-finisher has a good chance of doing so if he can settle, coupled with his handy draw down the inside in stall 1, which isn’t the worse place to be drawn.

He proved no match for Equinox in Dubai in March but he kept on well in the closing stages to take second despite running keenly early on and that form has been advertised in a big way since as the horse back in fourth, Mostahdaf, has subsequently won the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes and the Juddmonte International Stakes.

He didn’t really get the run of the race in the Coronation Cup at Epsom but again, ran well to finish a closing second. A trip to Saint-Cloud for a Group 1 next time, albeit in what looked a weak one at first glance, was worthwhile as he won in very good style. That runner-up from that race boosted the form by winning a Group 1 in Germany next time so the form does have substance.

His underlining strong finishing effort is his biggest asset, so if this contest can be influenced by a strong pace, he will be seen to maximum effect. He made Hukum fight all-the-way to the line in the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes last time and his effort can be marked up, as he notably made his move sooner than ideal.

Horses that have run well in this race in the past have a tendency of running well in it again the following year and he could follow suit. There’s no disguising that he has improved since last year and that’s even after winning an Irish Derby, as well as a third in the English version. His profile is solid and he has been targeted at the race again. It’s easy to see him being in the shake-up.

Feed The Flame (11/1)

A son of Kingman, Feed The Flame is already building up quite a good record at this course but after winning his first couple of starts, he had no answer to the acceleration of Ace Impact when fourth in the Prix du Jockey Club earlier this season, so he has work to do to reverse the form.

He has looked better since going up in distance though, producing a last-to-first success in the Grand Prix de Paris in which he had Adelaide River in behind. He was given too much do when second to Fantastic Moon in the Qatar Prix Niel but did well to finish as close as he did.

A favourable in stall 2 with elite Arc rider Christophe Soumillon maintains the partnership but even with his great knowledge and experience of the race on his side, his patient tactics in a race like this is a concern. His trainer is still in search of a first Arc winner too and might have to settle for minor honours at best.

Through Seven Seas (12/1)

This mare, Through Seven Seas, might have slipped under the radar to most if she can prove her latest second to be no fluke in which she pushed the high-class Equinox close in the in the Group One Takarazuka Kinen at Hanshin last time, which was a career-best performance.

She is Japan’s only representative in this year’s field, who still seek a first win in the race. She did well to get so close to that alleged superstar last time after suffering interference and it is feasible to think this race will suit. A nice draw in stall 5 is also a positive, so she cannot be discounted.

Fantastic Moon (12/1)

Fantastic Moon, a winner of the Deutsches Derby and Prix Niel winner, was a late supplement entry at a chunky price with conditions set to be in his favour.

He won over course-and-distance on Arc trials day last time and should be able to get an ideal set-up here with lots of cover and a possible conservative ride.

He has won four of his six starts and has yet to finish out of the frame in all career starts. His draw isn’t ideal but he’s progressive and is unbeaten in four starts on ground good to soft or better.

With plenty more to come, this German challenger must be respected as he bids to follow in the footsteps of previous winners of his home country, Danedream who took it in 2011 and Torquator Tasso who won it two years ago.

Bay Bridge (14/1)

A winner of the Champion Stakes last year, Bay Bridge hasn’t managed to achieve those heights since but this is generally his time of the year and he relished the drop in grade to land a Group 3 last time at Kempton, a race Enable had won prior to her Arc assignments.

Despite not being at his pinnacle best, he travelled very well in the Tattersalls Gold Cup but was out-battled by Luxembourg in the closing stages when second. He then travelled well again in the Prince Of Wales's Stakes before his effort petered out.

He also has experience of this course having run well despite returning a beaten favourite when third in the Prix Ganay back in April. Valid excuses can be drawn into that performance as the ground was extremely testing and he raced keenly at stages of the contest as well.

He has also fared well with the draw in stall 6 and his trainer knows what it takes to win this having trained Workforce to success in it back in 2010. He is unexposed over this distance and could go very nicely at a decent price.

Simca Mille (25/1)

Simca Mille has ultimately been handed the worst of the draw in stall 15 but his form does entitle him to be thereabouts. He had Bay Bridge in behind when second in the Prix Ganay earlier in the season and since finishing down the field on debut, he’s built up a consistent record.

Last year was beaten just a neck to Onesto in the Grand Prix de Paris and his overall record at this course reads 2112. He’s a smooth traveller, who enjoys a big field and comes into this on the back of a Group 1 success in Germany. If he can overcome the draw and slot in somewhere behind the pace, he will outrun his odds.

Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Tips & Prediction

With no fewer than NINE Group 1 winners crossing swords, this is a pretty good renewal in my opinion, and I will put up a couple of fancies - a win-only bet and an each-way nominee.

Despite his wide-draw, nothing has changed my perspective about the credentials of HUKUM (best price 6/1) who has delivered two high-class deliveries since his comeback including when he outbattled Westover last-time-out and can land his biggest paycheque here for Owen Burrows and Jim Crowley.

Being a son of previous Arc winner Sea The Stars, the whole surroundings of this race, such as the distance and the drying ground will really suit Owen Burrows’ leading player who can travel at any sort of pace with a decisive turn of foot to boot.

Ace Impact has done little wrong so far but his RPR’s and ratings fall well behind the former, who is rated 7Ib higher at 128 (highest in the field). He is therefore surely the value at the odds and can hopefully come out on top being one of my favourite horses in training. A recommended win-only bet.

From an each-way stance, look no further than German Derby winner and recent course- and-distance Arc trials winner FANTASTIC MOON (best price 12/1) who has an excellent each-way chance having been supplemented for this at a late stage at a huge cost with conditions set to be perfect for him.

In addition, Germany has a good record in this race and won it two years ago. Trainer Sarah Steinburg has reported his homework to have gone well and while he had the option of travelling to the US or Japan, this €5 million contest is the preferred assignment.

The fact this three-year-old is even taking his chance, let alone his impressive win last time, makes him of serious interest. Unbeaten on ground that is described as good to soft or quicker, he should get a nice lead into the race and is unbeaten in two starts over a mile and a half.

He wouldn’t be risked in this without good reason and, with everything seemingly aligned perfectly for him with stall 12 not seen as an issue in my eye, this top-class German raider gets the each-way nod at a price that is very appealing indeed with four places available with Betfair, PaddyPower, Skybet and Bet365.