December Gold Cup

This weekend’s Cheltenham Christmas Meeting is headlined by the Virgin Bet December Gold Cup Handicap Chase, which has attracted a field of 12, including multiple Grade 1 winner Fakir D’oudairies, who heads the weights, with Olly Murphy’s Thunder Rock the current favourite. 

It is run over a distance of two miles and four furlongs and has the makings of a cracking renewal. Here's a runner-by-runner guide before I give my final tips for the race.

For Dan Overall's Christmas Meeting Tips, click here.

2023 December Gold Cup Runners Guide

Fakir D’Oudairies

A four-time winner at the highest level, whose inclusion in the field makes this race even more interesting than it already was beforehand.

He will be making his handicap debut off a mark of 162, and while some might see his mark as problematic, this consistent chaser, who recorded back-to-back wins in the Marsh Chase at Aintree and won a Betfair Ascot Chase, has a good record when fresh.

It’s quite remarkable that he’s still only eight, and the last time he ran at this course, he finished an excellent second in the 2021 Ryanair Chase behind Allaho. His form figures here are also appealing, which read 1422, so while it is by no means an easy feat defying the welter burden of top weight, he is a fascinating runner, with the class to run very well on his reappearance.

Fugitif

A regular runner in good-quality handicaps at this course, who shaped well when fourth in the Paddy Power Gold Cup here last time. He was equipped with first-time cheekpieces that day, where he travelled well but did too much in the early stages and weakened towards the business end.

He is entitled to strip a lot fitter for his reappearance, though, and the handicapper has essentially reduced his mark by two pounds. Even with his consistency taken into account, he is ultimately vulnerable to a potential improver or classier horse. He should run well, but a few others are better treated.

Thunder Rock

The current bookmakers' favourite is this seven-year-old, who made a triumphant return to action when taking the Listed Colin Parker Memorial Intermediate Chase at Carlisle on his return. The form has been boosted in a big way since, with the second, Mahler Mission, only finding one too good in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury when last seen.

He is now switched back to handicap company from only a four-pound higher mark than when he won at Ascot, and, before his latest return, he was second at the Scottish Grand National Meeting at Ayr. Again, that form was recently advertised by the winner, Datsalrightgino, who coincidentally beat Mahler Mission in that race at Newbury.

Both the latterly-mentioned pair are rated nine and 13 pounds higher than Olly Murphy’s runner, so theoretically, he is well-handicapped off a mark of 146 at present. He has course form, given that he ran well to finish third behind The Real Whacker in a Grade 2 race here in January, who went on to land the Brown Advisory at the Cheltenham Festival.

He has only met with defeat once in four handicap starts, and the last time he competed in a handicap, he beat the likeable Solo, who has subsequently finished second in a Haldon Gold Cup. All in all, his form has frequently worked out well, and he’s a strong contender despite not being missed in the betting, with his odds starting to look prohibitive.

Monmiral

It’s been a long time between drinks since he won a Grade 1 race over hurdles at Aintree, but Paul Nicholls has clearly targeted him at this race. His form has somewhat been mixed since his early days over hurdles, and he has no doubt been difficult to train, given that his career has either been plagued by injuries or setbacks.

His first couple of starts over fences read well, as he chased home Jonbon at Warwick prior to chasing home The Real Whacker in a Grade 2 here earlier in the year, in which he had Thunder Rock back in third. That form is rock-solid when put into some context ahead of this weekend’s race.

The fact that Harry Cobden has opted to ride him over Il Ridoto speaks volumes about the sort of performance we might expect. He was last seen finishing seventh in the Grade 1 Liverpool Hurdle after disappointing in the Scilly Isles Novices' Chase, and a mark of 145 is lenient.

There’s no disguising his talent, and this is probably his optimum distance, but I suspect he lacks the mentality to really derive under pressure. He hasn’t always been the hardest of horses when push comes to shove, and he will need to iron that out if he’s to see off his competitors but he retains potential as a chaser and could win this if he puts it all together.

Il Ridoto

This stablemate of Monmiral has a solid record in handicap chase events around here and subsequently ran a cracker to finish third in the Paddy Power Gold Cup on his return after being short for room on the home turn. If you delve into the main trends for this contest, he ticks most of them, hence why he’s a single-figure price.

His form has regularly worked out nicely, and Bryony Frost is no bad jockey to have on side in such a lukewarm race. This six-year-old could find the requisite improvement from a pound lower mark than last time, but he still remains five pounds above his last winning mark, which is a slight niggle. Otherwise, he has solid claims.

 

So Scottish

One of the Irish representatives, who is now a couple of pounds lower than when he finished a respectable seventh in the Magners Plate at the Cheltenham Festival in March.

He did, however, run poorly on his return when a distant fourth at Gowran Park, but he should prove to be a stronger proposition here. His second to Boothill last November is also a good piece of form.

But even though his latest run will have certainly blown away the cobwebs, that form is well short of the requirements needed in this much tougher race. He can occasionally belt a few fences too, so he’ll need to cut those out if he’s to have any involvement against better horses. This has probably been the main aim, but I’m not convinced he’s good enough.

Jay Jay Reilly

Dan Skelton’s seven-year-old has twice won over fences early this year, but mistakes haven’t helped him in his two starts this term, and his lack of experience in a large field is a major concern.

His second to Mercian Prince back in May isn’t good enough form for a race like this, and this will also be his first foray at this course, which is another negative. Others hold more compelling claims.

Do Your Job

This nine-year-old trained by Lucinda Russell would have been pushing for favouritism if this was run early last year, given that was when he was at the pinnacle of his powers, but he has been operating well below his best for a while now.

His two runs this season. including here last time when well beaten in a weaker race, have offered little encouragement to suggest he’s going to produce his best. Having said that, he is well handicapped off his current mark of 136 and might fare better.

Grandeur D'ame

Flourished in the jumping department when battering his rivals on his return at Wetherby, with former Grade 1 winner Cornerstone Lad 25 lengths behind in second. As a consequence, he is up eight pounds in the handicap, and he’s likely to be pestered for the lead this time.

That was a career-best performance, though, and he ran well in his only previous start here, albeit in a bumper when he finished second. This is, however, a whole new scenario compared to his latest win, such as the larger-field, stiffer opposition, but he’s in-form and could easily outrun his odds.

Frero Banbou

Looked very unlucky at Newbury earlier this month, where he was in the clear and appeared to have the race won, but for a costly mistake at the final fence, handing the initiative to Kandoo Kid. He has surprisingly been left on the same mark here, and his third in the Grand Sefton on his return is solid form.

For instance, the fourth, Nassalam, recently bolted up at Doncaster. However, he could only finish midfield over this trip at the Festival in the Magners Plate, and his best effort here has been over a shorter trip, notably his third in the Grand Annual last year. He could be an outsider to consider.

Torn And Frayed

Returned a good winner over course and distance last year in a Grade 3 race and was in the process of running well on his return in the Paddy Power Gold Cup before he fell at the second last fence.

At the time, though, he was weakening, but that will have sorted his fitness out. That said, it’s not ideal to come into this equally tough race on the back of a non-completion. Not for me.

Railway Hurricane

This Irish raider sneaks into this off a low weight and will be suited to the pace of the race. He is a strong traveller but has often been soft in a finish, and his form backs that up, given how many times he’s placed in his career.

He would have finished closer without being hampered here last time, but this is a huge rise in grade, and he will need a new personal best to make a serious impact. Has good course form, but others hold stronger credentials.

December Gold Cup Tips & Prediction

With his form continuing to work out well, Thunder Rock is unsurprisingly popular in the market and is the initial favourite at a general 9/2. But with just one winning favourite in the last 20 runnings, this is a significant statistic to overcome.

My concern with him as well is knowing he can make mistakes, as proven when he jumped poorly when he chased home The Real Whacker here in January. He was also outpaced in that race, and he won’t afford for that to happen here.

Instead, from a betting point of view, I am going to nominate two win tips. The first one is MONMIRAL (best price 11/2), who I know has yet to win in this sphere but has deliberately been kept fresh for this, and we have yet to see the best of this Grade 1 winning hurdler over fences.

He was in front of Thunder Rock here at the beginning of the year, and a mark of 145, coupled with a nice racing weight, does make him of serious interest. If he can produce his best, he must have a great chance for trainer Paul Nicholls, who has won this race five times and is the choice of Harry Cobden.

Meanwhile, the odds about the top-weight FAKIR D’OUDAIRIES (best price 8/1) are very alluring with four places widely available, given that he’s proven himself multiple times at the highest level and adds a touch of class to the race.

This battle-hardened eight-year-old is pitched into a handicap for the first time and is unlikely to lack fitness given his good record when fresh, along with his fine record at the course. 

He has the daunting task of shouldering 12st but there’s no doubt he is the best horse in the race, and his ability to handle any ground is transparent. He and Monmiral are the only Grade 1 winners in the line-up, which should count for plenty.

I am confident the classier horses will come to the fore.