14:50 Chepstow

The highlight of the festive period at Chepstow is the Welsh Grand National (14:50 Wednesday), which is run over a distance 3m6f, and has attracted a field of 22. Here is your runners guide. 

For Architect Tips Welsh Grand National Ante-Post preview, click here.

Welsh Grand National 2023 Runners

Iwilldoit

  • Trainer: Sam Thomas.
  • Jockey: Dylan Johnston. 
  • Form: 311152.
  • Odds: 7/1

 

Produced a scintillating performance in this race two years ago, scoring by nine lengths, and warmed up for this with an excellent second over an inadequate trip at Aintree over hurdles on his return. His effort can be markedly upgraded, as he conceded over a stone in weight to the race-fit, well-handicapped winner, and Sam Thomas’s charge will now be spot on in terms of fitness.

A career-high mark of 153 means he will need to top his performance in this from two years ago, but it’s a big day for young Dylan Johnston, who can compensate his big weight by claiming 7Ib, and this has been the main objective for the 10-year-old. He is vulnerable for win purposes, especially up against well-treated opponents, but should give his running and does hold solid place claims at least.

Complete Unknown

  • Trainer: Paul Nicholls.
  • Jockey: Harry Cobden.
  • Form: 121210.
  • Odds: 8/1

 

One of two representatives for Paul Nicholls, who evidently lacks a gear or two but could be crying out for this step up in distance, and his assured jumping should stand him in good stead. Last seen finishing midfield in the Coral Gold Cup, having been sent off as the favourite, that was the first time he had been out of the top two in all his chase starts. The handicapper hasn’t done him any favours either by keeping him on the same mark.

His second to Gerri Colombe (4/1 for the Cheltenham Gold Cup) in a Grade 1 race at Aintree back in April, however, reads good form, given that the winner has advertised the form again since. Besides that performance, his chase form hasn’t worked out too well, though.

Moreover, he will be forced to shoulder top weight with Iwilldoit’s claim coming into effect. This is a stiff enough task after just six chase starts, and he might be overwhelmed with the nature of the race, but he’s a good horse and should be thereabouts.

The Big Breakaway 

  • Trainer: Colin Tizzard. 
  • Jockey: Adam Wedge
  • Form: 22PF5P.
  • Odds: 12/1

 

Never quite fulfilled his early potential but turned in a creditable display when runner-up in this race last year to The Two Amigos, who was given an inspired ride. His form has gone pear-shaped since though, failing to complete in two of his last three starts, and as a result, he finds himself 1Ib lower than his run in this 12 months ago.

It is possible the eight-year-old will stage a revival back at the scene of his best effort from last season, but he comes with risks attached, judged by this season’s form. He is likely to attract market support, but my main concern is that he’s arriving in the race this time in much worse form than last year, and a place might again be the best he can hope for.

The Galloping Bear 

  • Trainer: Ben Clarke.
  • Jockey: Sam Twiston-Davies. 
  • Form: 1D3F2P.
  • Odds: 14/1

 

Very lightly-raced for his age and has stamina in abundance, as displayed when he beat Bristol De Mai in the Grand National Trial early last year on bottomless ground over three miles and four furlongs.

It’s worth recollecting how poorly he ran in this race last year, when sent off just 11/2. He was weakening out of contention before he took a tumble and is 5Ib higher this time after his excellent second in the Eider Chase at Newcastle earlier this year.

He lost little in defeat, conceding 8Ib to the rejuvenated Kitty’s Light, and was beaten only a couple of lengths. However, his only start since saw him pulled up in the Midlands Grand National.

His record when fresh is alarming as well, given he’s been beaten in all three starts, which reads 5F3. Sam Twiston-Davies is a notable booking, but even his presence might not be enough to see him bounce back to his best.

Nassalam

  • Trainer: Gary Moore.
  • Jockey: Caoilin Quinn.
  • Form: 630741.
  • Odds: 6/1

 

Looked in seriously good nick when scoring over three miles in the trial for this contest on deep ground at this course last time out and must enter calculations if he stays the longer distance.

The six-year-old has been keeping strong company since going chasing, and Caoilin Quinn, who rode him very confidently when the pair won by five-and-a-half-lengths, is retained to ride.

While he’s been hit with an 8Ib rise by the handicapper, he will still be 4lb ‘well-in’ at the weights under his 4lb penalty for his return. With further rain expected, he’s a serious each-way player.

Chambard

  • Trainer: Venetia Williams.
  • Jockey: Lucy Turner
  • Form: PU4421.
  • Odds: 14/1

 

His trainer has won this twice in her career, with Jocks Cross in the year 2000 and with Emperor’s Choice in 2014, and this 11-year-old could be suited to this sort of test. He will need a new personal best if he’s to succeed under his penalty, but it was hard not to be impressed by the way he won the Becher Chase at Aintree.

He jumped the fences for fun, loved the heavy ground, and stayed on strongly to score by a widening 13 lengths. He seems to be getting better with age, and he’s another who will appreciate conditions. Being 5Ib “well-in” at the weights, he’s certainly worth a crack at this distance and remains one to be positive about.

Iron Bridge 

  • Trainer: Jonjo O’Neill.
  • Jockey: Jonjo O’Neill Jr.
  • Form: 115122P.
  • Odds: 10/1

 

Ran poorly on his return, but better will be expected this weekend, and he should be suited to the step-up in trip plus the anticipated slower ground. He is open to a lot more improvement than most of these and has looked like he would really appreciate a thorough test of stamina in most of his starts.

He was unlucky not to beat Autonomous Cloud a couple of starts back at Uttoxeter when beaten just a head into second when giving the winner 12Ib, and is a lot better off at the weights this time, which gives him every chance of turning the tables. If you put a line through his latest showing, I have no doubt he would be in single digits.

He has plenty going for him, and while fundamentally, I’d like to have seen him in a bigger-field scenario, he could be happier in this contest, and an unchanged mark of 142 looks eminently workable. Despite heading into uncharted territory trip-wise, I really like his chances, as he fits the mould as a potential winner in my eyes.

Truckers Lodge

  • Trainer: Paul Nicholls.
  • Jockey: Freddie Gingell. 
  • Form: 4581B1. 
  • Odds: 12/1

 

This 11-year-old has run in this race four times, placing in three, and this doesn’t look like a vintage renewal. He stays well, jumps well, and has shown a resurgence in form under this excellent rider, Freddie Gingell.

The pair of them teamed up to win both the West Wales National at Ffos Las and the London National at Sandown a few weeks ago, where he battled all the way to the line and rallied to beat hot favourite Beauport.

All four attempts at this previously were off marks of 139 when second in 2019, 155 when seventh in 2020, 150 when third in 2021, and 141 when fourth last year. He is tough and tenacious, and Freddie has been the key to his resurgence in form.

With a mark of 137 (despite carrying a penalty), he must have a solid chance of placing again, at least, as he bids to emulate the last dual winner, Mountainous, who coincidentally was the last 11-year-old to take Chepstow’s highlight.

Autonomous Cloud

  • Trainer: Fergal O’Brien. 
  • Jockey: Paddy Brennan. 
  • Form: 222211.
  • Odds: 7/1

 

Taken his form to a new level over fences and has won his last couple of starts, with both wins coming at Uttoxeter. The seven-year-old has been well-backed in recent weeks for the race, and it’s difficult to knock his consistency this year. However, he looked a touch lucky to beat Iron Bridge in his penultimate start, and the latter will have a massive weight-pull this time.

He dotted up back at the same venue last time out, but the race rather fell apart, and this is a much deeper contest. He also has his stamina to prove over this extreme distance, and I’m not sure he’s that well handicapped. He is open to a lot more improvement, but he makes limited appeal at the odds, and I'm not convinced he will stay. I am happy take him on. 

Super Survivor 

  • Trainer: Jamie Snowden. 
  • Jockey: Gavin Sheehan. 
  • Form: 212132.
  • Odds: 11/2

 

The seven-year-old has yet to finish out of the frame in all seven starts under rules and has a win and three placed efforts from four starts over fences. His profile is attractive, but he’s light on experience, and there’s not enough evidence to suggest he is crying out for this major step up in distance in this higher grade.

I think he’s favourite by default rather than substance, as his form in this sphere isn’t strong, given that he was comfortably beaten by a 130-rated horse in his penultimate start. Maybe he will prove me wrong, but, in my opinion, he’s far too short in the betting, with huge improvement needed if he’s to make the frame, let alone come out on top. 

Welsh Grand National Tips & Prediction

There’s a wide-open feel about this year’s renewal, and I’m keen to oppose those towards the front end of the market in search of better value. As mentioned in my previous ante-post piece, I have already nominated two selections, and nothing has changed my mind since.

IRON BRIDGE should fare a lot better than his reappearance, and the combination of juice in the ground and a longer trip could prompt a career-best performance.

TRUCKERS LODGE was my other nominee, who has run in this race several times and ran well on each occasion. He has found a new lease in life since being partnered by Freddie Gingell and should make another bold bid. 

  • IRON BRIDGE, 0.5 pts E/W, 16/1, 5 places 
  • TRUCKERS LODGE, 0.5 pts E/W, 14/1, 5 places

For Architect Tips' Welsh Grand National Ante-Post preview, click here.