New Year's Day Chase 2024 Tips, Runners & Prediction at Cheltenham

To kick off 2024, we have the Cheltenham’s New Year’s Day meeting at Prestbury Park, which features the Relkeel Hurdle and the New Year’s Day Handicap Chase, with the latter being the focus of attention in this specific written piece.

The 2m4f event is deficient in terms of numbers compared to last year, but some familiar faces will be in action in the race, most notably the classy Stage Star, who heads the weights.

Paul Nicholls’ 166-rated, Grade 1 winning chaser will start this contest as a short-priced favourite in his quest to supplement his win in the Paddy Power Gold Cup and bolster his Ryanair Chase claims.

Without further ado, let’s take a closer look at the runners for this year’s renewal, with an analysis of each participant before giving out my tips and predictions for the race.

New Year's Day Chase Runners Guide

Stage Star

• Trainer: Paul Nicholls
• Jockey: Harry Cobden
• Form: 211151
• Odds: 1/1

 

After romping to success in the Paddy Power Gold Cup at the course last month on his seasonal reappearance when he scored by four lengths under Harry Cobden, the bookmakers immediately installed the very likeable eight-year-old as the favourite for the Ryanair Chase on March 14.

Rated 142 when winning a novices' handicap chase last January at Cheltenham, before returning to the course to land the Grade 1 Turners Novices' Chase two months later, he made a triumphant return to Prestbury Park at the November meeting to land Saturday’s showpiece.

Always to the fore, he jumped beautifully, as he often does, and despite both horse and rider performing miracles to keep the partnership intact at the final fence, especially the heroics of Harry Cobden, who picked him up off the canvas, his mount drew clear to record a third course success.

In the aftermath of that impressive display, the handicapper raised his mark by 11Ib. In essence, he now has to compete with a career-high mark of 166, but it’s very interesting to see Paul Nicholls persevering with handicaps again, in spite of his lofty mark. He also won’t be hindered by the forecast rain.

Carrying top-weight around this course is never the easiest of tasks, but none of the remainder can boast comparable form. If he can manage to carry the burden of top weight to victory, he will solidify his position at the top of the market for the Ryanair Chase. The one they all have to beat.

Al Dancer

• Trainer: Sam Thomas
• Jockey: Dylan Johnston (7)
• Form: 321013
• Odds: 14/1

 

A reliable customer despite his advancing years and has looked on really good terms with himself this season, proving his wellbeing as well, in which he has maintained his consistency, with a smooth win at Chepstow on his return prior to a fair third in the Grade 2 Old Roan Chase at Aintree.

Provisionally, his jumping is his biggest asset, so most of the omitted fences certainly sabotaged his chances last time. Still, he kept on scrapping all the way to the line after being outpaced and was only beaten by about four and a half lengths. As a consequence, his mark of 154 surprisingly remains unchanged.

What has changed though is the jockey bookings, with Dylan Johnston booked to ride, who can offset a valuable 7Ib, and his presence does mean that this veteran can compete from a handy weight in comparison to the favourite whilst remaining the second highest rated in the line-up.

He has also won on ground ranging from good to soft, but he wouldn’t want it bottomless looking at his form on a testing surface. He has never won when the ground has "heavy" in the description, which does pose a question mark. Otherwise, he should again run well, being in receipt of over a stone from the favourite.

Richmond Lake

• Trainer: Donald McCain Jr
• Jockey: Brian Hughes
• Form: 121111
• Odds: 9/2

 

Since finishing down the field on his chase debut, this seven-year-old has continued to get better and better and has now racked up a sequence of four consecutive victories, with the latest of those wins coming at Aintree, where he won by 14 lengths.

He has now won five of his last six starts, and his conclusive love for heavy conditions has materialised in back-to-back wins this season. Any further rain, which is expected, will aid his cause, but despite having more to come, he has to deal with an 8Ib rise for his latest win.

His inexperience with this course is a slight niggle, and despite winning his only previous start over this distance, he marginally got the better of Dubai Days in a much weaker race. He is improving run-by-run, but it is difficult to see him getting the better of some higher-calibre opponents here.

Shakem Up’arry

• Trainer: Ben Pauling
• Jockey: Ben Jones
• Form: 1534P6
• Odds: 6/1

 

Probably deserves more recognition than he’s received so far in his career, given that he’s largely performed well in top-end handicaps and shaped better than the margin indicated when sixth in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury last time.

It is clear as day to see that a distance of three miles or further stretches his stamina, as demonstrated last time, where he travelled very well before getting tired. After jumping the third last fence on the bridle, he looked like he was going to win doing handstands.

However, that wasn't the case, as he weakened out of the places from the back of the last fence after travelling into the race without being asked for maximum efforts when he jumped the third last fence in front.

The finishing position really didn’t give his performance any justification, and the return to two miles and four furlongs will imminently suit, as the last time he competed over it came in the Plate at the Cheltenham Festival, in which he finished an excellent third.

He is back on the same mark of 139 here and isn’t far off getting nearly two stone in weight from the Stage Star either, with conditions holding little fear, and that's beneficial. Form-wise, I make him the biggest danger to the favourite, as he's run with credit over this trip here twice and deserves a change in fortune.

Frero Banbou

• Trainer: Venetia Williams
• Jockey: Charlie Deutsch
• Form: 340323
• Odds: 8/1

 

Not won for a while but often runs well in defeat and has made the frame in all three starts this season, including over course and distance last time.

He proved no match for the front pair in the December Gold Cup last time but did well to hold onto third. I am slightly bewildered by the fact that the handicapper has raised his mark 3Ib, and he is actually 4Ib wrong at the weights, though.

He remains lower in the handicap than when he placed in the Grand Annual last year and would have won at Newbury in his penultimate start without blundering the last fence when clear.

His trainer has been among the winners of late as well, and although this nine-year-old has been winless for nearly two years, he cannot be taken lightly with plenty in his favour.

Torn And Frayed

• Trainer: Nigel Twiston-Davies
• Jockey: Sam Twiston-Davies
• Form: 22P1F6
• Odds: 25/1

 

Ran a good race when sixth here last time, but similar to Venetia Williams’ charge, who was three places in front of him last time, he has to compete from out of the handicap, which makes life tough here.

He is now only 1Ib higher than when he won in January last year over course and distance, but others hold stronger claims at present, and he can be passed over.

New Year’s Day Handicap Chase Tips & Prediction

This race no doubt revolves around the class act in the field, Stage Star, who returned a good winner for us last time out and must have an excellent chance of further enhancing his Ryanair Chase claims by potentially landing a fourth course win.

However, at the odds, he is short enough, and instead I’ll take a chance on Ben Pauling’s well-handicapped runner, SHAKEM UP’ARRY (best price 6/1), who makes plenty of appeal to potentially cause an upset.

He isn’t as classy as the Paul Nicholls-trained runner, but the weight he will receive from the former does make him a bet at the prices. He has also run with immense credit in his two starts over this distance at this course.

The way he travelled into the Coral Gold Cup last time, before weakening late on, was eye-catching, to say the least. The return to this shorter distance will suit, and if, for some reason, Stage Star isn’t on his game, he will be the one to capitalise. I also recommend backing him in the w/o Stage Star (5/2 with SkyBet) market.