Architect previews the ante-post market for the Arkle Chase at Cheltenham.
Cheltenham Ante-Post
Last year’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle winner, Marine Nationale, is one of 24 entries for the Arkle Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, with Found A Fifty and Facile Vega among his potential challengers.
- The undefeated Marine is the one to beat
- Facile Vega is a tempting price
- Found A Fifty latest form is questionable
- Iroko is an interesting entrant
- Gaelic Warrior could drop-in trip
- II Etait Temps could go well
Arkle Chase 2024 Preview
By far the most exciting novice chaser in the two-mile division this season across Britain and Ireland is Barry Connell’s Marine Nationale.
He established himself as the best novice hurdler last year by winning all three of his hurdle starts, which culminated with a second win at the highest level, courtesy of success in the Supreme at Cheltenham.
Having his first run since that hugely impressive success over Facile Vega, he made the perfect transition to the bigger obstacles on his reappearance at Leopardstown last month, and bookmakers immediately installed him as the odds-on favourite for Tuesday’s opening Grade 1 chase at the Cheltenham Festival.
The highly-promising seven-year-old had little to beat, with the exception of Ho My Lord, but the visual performance was nothing short of spectacular. He made all, jumped well, didn’t miss a beat, and showcased his trademark turn of foot when asked to go about his business to score by eight widening lengths without coming out of second gear.
With an unblemished record of six wins from six starts and his form repeatedly working out well, it is going to take something extraordinary from anything else to see him beaten in March. From what we have seen of him to date, there appear to be no chinks in his armour, and his best days are still to come.
His odds of 8/11 might seem skinny to some, but to me, he should be shorter. Willie Mullins has eight possible candidates to try to take down the favourite.
More interestingly, Facile Vega was made ante-post favourite for the Arkle before Marine Nationale had even made his return, as he comfortably beat Inthepocket, a Grade 1 winner himself at Aintree in the spring, by over three lengths. He remains second favourite after drifting out in the market to 10/1 following a surprise defeat last time.
With four Grade 1 wins to his name and having confirmed himself the best bumper horse of two seasons ago by winning at the Cheltenham and Punchestown Festivals prior to landing a pair of Grade 1’s over hurdles last season, he is clearly a talented horse and connections still hold him in high esteem.
However, my main concern with him is that he’s been weak at the finish in his two shock defeats (finished last both times) when expected to win both races. Firstly, he only beat one rival home in the Ireland Novice Hurdle last February when sent off as a 4/9 favourite before finishing last of four in the Racing Post Novice Chase when last spotted.
Even though everything went wrong for him last time, his finishing effort was tame, but we know he’s better than that, and he proved that in his two Grade 1 Novice Hurdle wins last season. In spite of proving no match for Marine Nationale in the Supreme, an on-song Facile Vega undoubtedly remains the main threat to him on paper and from a form perspective.
Paul Townend is still likely to choose him over the stables other intended runners, even after his turnover over Christmas. I’m confident we will see a better version of Facile in March, and the 10/1 price tag after the market reformed following the latest entry stage is tempting because we know he’s capable of giving the favourite a race if he gets back to his best.
I would be confident about him reversing his latest form with Found A Fifty. He has taken well to fences and did well to claim the Racing Post Novice Chase last time, but the field finished too close to each other for my liking, and I have no doubt Facile underperformed.
I think Gordon Elliott’s charge, who is generally available at 10/1, will find this race more challenging. My Mate Mozzie is consistent and ran well in second, but he could only finish eighth in the County Hurdle last year when he had no excuses. He is just as good over fences, but improvement will be needed, and the 25/1 doesn’t appeal to me.
The surprise among the entries is Iroko, who was reportedly ruled out for the season after sustaining a foot injury when successful at Warwick last time. He looked a complete natural that day and was impressive in winning the Martin Pipe at the Cheltenham Festival after enjoying a productive season over hurdles last year.
Arkle Chase Odds
| Horse | Best Odds | Worst Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Marine Nationale | 8/11 | 8/13 |
| Facile Vega | 10/1 | 8/1 |
| Found A Fifty | 10/1 | 6/1 |
| Gaelic Warrior | 12/1 | 5/2 |
| Ell Etait Temps | 14/1 | 8/1 |
| Blood Destiny | 20/1 | 14/1 |
This five-year-old concluded last term with an excellent third in a Grade 1 race at Aintree and is likely to surpass that form on the basis of his excellent chase debut. I’m not actually sure if he’s miraculously recovered yet, but if connections do plan to run him, he’s probably the best hope of the British representatives.
It is worth pointing out that he is also entered in the Turners, so his participation in this race is guaranteed if he’s given the green light to take his chance at Cheltenham. Willie Mullins has also entered Gaelic Warrior, despite the Turners Novices’ Chase looking like the main objective.
He is the favourite for the latter, but he does have the option of dropping down in distance, should Mullins do so with him. He is available at 12/1 and has so far looked good over fences.
His latest win earned him a sixth win from just eight starts since joining Willie, with his only two defeats coming at Cheltenham when second in the Boodles and the Ballymore. He has looked good since stepping up in distance, but he does have the necessary pace over two miles, so it’ll be interesting to see which route he takes, as he holds three entries at the moment.
II Etait Temps would have in-the-frame claims if he were able to put in a polished round of jumping, but he had a tendency to make mistakes. He did do very well over hurdles last year though, winning a Grade 1 when beating a below-par Facile Vega, but has finished behind his stablemate twice since.
He proved no match for Gaelic Warrior last time when he finished second, but was impressive on his chase debut when beating Ho My Lord, and he has often produced his best form when ridden positively. Whether he can do that at Cheltenham, though, is open to debate.
He’s fared no better than fifth in his two starts at the course, which have coincidentally come at the Festival in the Triumph Hurdle and Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. He still ran well each time and is a proven Grade 1 winner, so he could raise his game to make the frame. The general 14/1 about him seems like a fair price if you take the favourite out of the equation.
At the time of writing this, and with the likelihood that this race will again be dominated by the Irish, the upcoming Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown, particularly the Irish Arkle, will have major implications for the ante-post market.
Arkle Chase Ante-Post Tips
I think it would be a bit risky to advise Marine Nationale at prohibitive odds, even if he’s going to be difficult to beat. Instead, I’ll take an each-way chance on the Willie Mullins-trained FACILE VEGA (best price 10/1), who has the ability to run a big race and has the best piece of course form in the book when compared to his stable companions.
I know he was disappointing last time out, but he proved he can go toe-to-toe with the favourite, who chased him home when he finished second in the Supreme at the Cheltenham Festival last year. If he does end up being the choice of Paul Townend, expect his price to shorten, so from an each-way point of view, this four-time Grade 1 winner remains the value.
