Architect Tips previews the ante-post market for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham.
Supreme Novices' Hurdle 2024
The JP McManus-owned and market leader Mystical Power is one of 62 entries for the Grade 1 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, with Jeriko Du Reponet featuring in the entries list.
- Favourite Mystical is way too short
- Jeriko is priced up on potential rather than substance
- Take a chance on Gordon Elliott’s Farren Glory at a ludicrous price
- Mystical will need more power to succeed
Supreme Novices' Hurdle 2024 Preview
It’s been a rocky road in terms of Willie Mullins’ novice hurdle prospects with Cheltenham in mind, after plenty of his odds-on favourites were turned over during the Christmas period.
However, one of his team members who has continued to graduate through the ranks and recently emerged as a leading candidate is Mystical Power.
Mystical will need more power to succeed
This five-year-old extended his unbeaten record to three wins from three starts when returning an impressive winner of the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle at Punchestown.
Willie has often used that race as a stepping stone towards the festival, as previous winners such as Vautour, Douvan, Min, and more recently, Impaire et Passe, went on to succeed in the Cotswolds as novices.
The Closutton handler will go in search of a record-extending eighth win in the curtain-raiser at Prestbury Park, and most firms have him as the 4/1 favourite. His wins in a Ballinrobe bumper and a Galway Festival novice hurdle, which were albeit against a lower level of opposition, were a sign of a smart horse.
We have to roll back the clock to 2008 to recall the last time owner JP McManus won a Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, courtesy of Captain Cee Bee, but this well-built son of Annie Power is sure to remain popular and has plenty more to come.
That being said, though, his form lacks substance, and I have an inclination that he might find one or two too good with the whole scenario, such as ground, track, and high-calibre opponents, asking a lot more of his credentials.
Not only that, but his jumping needs to improve too, as he has lacked conviction at his obstacles in each of his two hurdle wins. He won't be allowed to evade that in this contest, which has historically been run at a strong pace. He is also entered in the Ballymore, but the assumption is that this race is the main target.
Jeriko is Henderson’s main hopeful
JP McManus will also be represented in the race with the Nicky Henderson-trained Jeriko Du Reponet, who made a striking impression on his hurdle/stable debut at Newbury back at the start of December before following up later that month.
His trainer has won this five times in the past, including two of the last four renewals with Shishkin and Constitution Hill, and this five-year-old appears to be his main hopeful for Seven Barrows this year.
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Currently the second favourite at a best price of 5/1, the plan is for him to run in the M1 Agency Sidney Banks Memorial Novices’ Hurdle at Huntingdon, and should he deliver the goods, as many expect him to, then he will remain a leading player or perhaps even go favourite.
The form of each of his two wins is nothing out of the ordinary, and improvement will be required if he’s to come out on top, but he has so much potential, with his best days ahead of him. He’s continued to be popular among punters, and his huge reputation has not been tarnished.
Anything that JP McManus owns and runs in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle is always worth a second look, and I would slightly favour this highly-promising youngster over Mystical Power at this stage, but neither appeals to me from a betting stance. I think a few other intended runners, who hold an entry, have more substance in their form and therefore offer better value at this stage.
Supreme Novices' Hurdle Odds
| Name | Best Odds | Worst Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Mystical Power | 4/1 | 7/2 |
| Jeriko Du Reponet | 5/1 | 7/2 |
| Ballyburn | 7/1 | 9/2 |
| Caldwell Potter | 12/1 | 10/1 |
| Farren Glory | 14/1 | 10/1 |
Supreme Novices' Hurdle Ante-Post Tips
While it might not have been the strongest of Royal Bond’s in the world, FARREN GLORY was still a good winner of that Grade 1 race in his penultimate start under a confident Jack Kennedy ride, in which he handed trainer Gordon Elliott a fourth win in the race.
The seven-year-old has improved loads since finishing fifth in a Grade 2 race on his hurdles debut, and he looked set to claim a second win at the highest level before falling at the second last hurdle in the Formby Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree when in front.
The way he moved menacingly through the race and jumped well until his departure was impressive. The visual performance left the impression he was going to absolutely bolt up, and if he did, there’s no way he would still be available at 16/1 for the Supreme.
He is a Grade 1 winner, which can’t be said about the top two in the betting or most of the intended runners, plus Gordon knows how to win the Supreme, having won it back in 2017 with the quirky but equally talented Labaik.
A strongly-run championship race around this course should suit this strong traveller, who has a turn of foot and is strong at the finish. This is far from a vintage renewal, and on a strict reading of his overall form, he’s just ridiculously overpriced in a winnable contest.
