Thyestes Handicap Chase Tips, Runners & Prediction at Gowran Park

This year’s edition of the Thyestes Chase at Gowran Park has attracted a field of 18, with the market headed by Gordon Elliott’s Dunboyne at 5/1.

Willie Mullins has won this eight times and has three representatives, with Bronn heading the weights in what is historically one of Ireland’s biggest handicap chase events of the season

Thyestes Handicap Chase Runners

Bronn

• Trainer: Willie Mullins
• Jockey: Daryl Jacob
• Form: 213344
• Odds: 11/1

A Grade 2 winner over hurdles who has proved equally effective over fences. He represents last year’s winning handler Willie Mullins, who was winning the race for an incredible eighth time. He finished a two-length second behind Gerri Colombe on his chase debut before scrambling home next time out.

A career-best effort then followed in the Grade 1 Brown Advisory at the Cheltenham Festival from the seven-year-old. It’s worth pointing out how well he travelled before finishing in third place, but his three runs since have been a touch underwhelming, and he was beaten somewhat 30 lengths into fourth in the New Year’s Day Chase last time out.

The evidence of his two runs over three miles has not convinced me that he wants further, as he’s looked like that’s the furthest he wants to go. If that is the case, then this extra distance will not help. The combination of the trip, huge weight, and stiff mark is enough to look elsewhere. Handicap debutant.

Longhouse Poet

• Trainer: Martin Brassil
• Jockey: JJ Slevin
• Form: 6U1U95
• Odds: 33/1

The 10-year-old won this back in 2022 with a mark of 145 when beating a pretty classy field and has won twice since, including at Down Royal last year. A retrospect of his two runs this season has been alarming, to say the least, and he remains 7Ib higher than his win two years ago.

His best form would entitle him to be thereabouts, but he has enough to prove at present, even with his optimum conditions, and he’ll do well to even make the frame, let alone come out on top. He can be passed over this time around in favour of better value and better handicapped rivals.

Espanito Bello

• Trainer: Barry Connell
• Jockey: Michael O’Sullivan
• Form: 451P1P
• Odds: 25/1

Not the most consistent of horses given his hit-and-miss profile, he is capable of smart form on his day and caused a mini surprise on his seasonal reappearance over hurdles in a listed race when defying odds of 20/1. He returned a comfortable winner of the Leinster National last March, which came after a creditable fifth in this race last year.

Even after a no-show in two of his last three starts, he remains 10Ib higher than his last win in this sphere, and I believe this mark of 150 is where his limitations lie. He’s another who will handle conditions without issue, but I am confident a few of the other better-treated runners will have his measure when it matters most, as this will require a new personal best.

Any Second Now

• Trainer: Ted Walsh
• Jockey: Mark Walsh
• Form: 2241P7
• Odds: 25/1

This veteran has been a tremendous servant and credit to connections, with multiple graded wins to his name, including a win at the Cheltenham Festival, as well as making the frame twice in the Grand National.

He is fast approaching the twilight stages of his career, but he provided a gentle reminder to everyone last year that he is still capable of mixing it in Grade 2 company, having landed the Webster Cup by seven lengths.

Although he never figured over an inadequate trip last time out, he will strip fitter, given he’s invariably needed his comeback run. In addition, he is 4Ib lower than when he ran in this two years ago, despite being pulled up.

He is well handicapped off 148 if you compare his two placed efforts in the Grand National, which came off marks of 152 and 159, but whether he has the legs to go the gallop over this shorter trip remains to be seen.

If he can, he’ll give himself a solid chance of at least reaching the frame, and if he were to succeed, he would become the oldest winner of the contest, as no 12-year-old has managed the feat since the race was formed in 1988.

Gevrey

• Trainer: Gordon Elliott
• Jockey: Sam Ewing
• Form: 423P1P
• Odds: 33/1

The first of seven intended runners from Team Elliott. The eight-year-old made giant strides last year, making the frame to finish fourth in the Plate at the Cheltenham Festival before he found only I Am Maximus too strong when a one-length second in the Irish Grand National.

He was then pulled up in the Kerry National in his next start after a bad mistake at the third last fence knocked the stuffing out of him, but he bounced back to land a bit of a gamble in the Munster National at Limerick, winning a shade comfortably by over two lengths.

He does need to cast aside a poor effort in the Troytown when again pulled up, but he isn’t the type to stay down for long, and he is reunited with Sam Ewing for the first time since the pair teamed up at last year’s Cheltenham Festival when he produced an eye-catching effort.

Ontheropes

• Trainer: Willie Mullins
• Jockey: Sean O’Keeffe
• Form: 21465/P
• Odds: 25/1

Turned in a disappointing display in the Paddy Power Chase when last spotted and has been limited to just two starts since December 2021, but is sure to be fitter this time around with that run under his belt.

I do think he’s well handicapped now, though, especially when you consider that he finished an excellent fifth in this race two years ago off a mark of 151 and can now find himself 6Ib lower.

Once upon a time, he was fourth in the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury, which is now known as the Coral Gold Cup, and that came off a stiff mark of 153. He is also only 4Ib higher than when he last succeeded, but it’s hard to know what to expect of him.

He is a solid yardstick on his day, but he’s likely to fall down the pecking order of the three runners from Willie Mullins stable and would need to step up considerably from his return to make an impact.

Ain’t That A Shame

• Trainer: Henry de Bromhead
• Jockey: Rachael Blackmore
• Form: 24109P
• Odds: 16/1

He has yet to fire in two starts this season, but he won at this course last year, and testing conditions will suit. He is back on the same mark as when he finished a close-up fourth in the 2022 Paddy Power Chase and represents a trainer who won this back in 2017 with Champagne West.

He should have more to come in this sphere and has been targeted at the race, but I suspect a few others will have his measure. I think he’s short enough in the betting after not being at his best so far this season, so a leap of faith is required, even after being the choice of Rachael Blackmore.

Diol Ker

• Trainer: Gordon Elliott
• Jockey: Kieran Buckley
• Form: U75F87
• Odds: 25/1

Another representative from the Elliott team who is a strong stayer at this trip and has shaped nicely in all of his three completed starts this season. He is effectively three inches lower than when narrowly beaten in the 2022 Paddy Power Chase and finished seventh of 17 in that race last time out.

He gets into this race at a nice weight, with some useful course form to his name, and is one of the more interesting outsiders in the field. However, he will still need to improve on his recent efforts to get involved, and a place might be the best he can hope for. His trainer does appear to have stronger candidates.

Fakir D'alene

• Trainer: Gordon Elliott
• Jockey: Danny Gilligan
• Form: 74B/23B
• Odds: 10/1

This nine-year-old was unlucky to be bought down in the Paddy Power Chase last time out and had previously run a belter under a positive ride when third of 20 in the Troytown Chase.

His staying on fourth in the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival two years ago from a 2Ib higher mark was also eye-catching, and surely a repeat showing of either of those two performances would see him thereabouts.

All of his best form has come on a sounder surface, but he proved in his penultimate start that he can handle a softer surface, and a positive display could well be on the cards. He has often hinted that he has a major staying handicap in him.

Glengouly

• Trainer: Willie Mullins
• Jockey: Paul Townend
• Form: P/1FP5-2
• Odds: 17/2

This lightly-raced chaser represents last year’s winning trainer and jockey. He is the preferred choice of Paul Townend and shaped with plenty of encouragement on his handicap debut last time when second in a listed event, but is 4Ib higher in this tougher race, and this course winner lacks large-field experience.

His stamina for three miles remains inconclusive, as he was pulled up in his only previous start over three miles, and he’s yet to win under such demanding conditions. With all these questions unanswered, I am happy to take him on at his prohibitive odds, even if he turns out to be another Mullins handicap plot.

Macs Charm

• Trainer: Colm Murphy
• Jockey: Brian Hayes
• Form: 4221PP
• Odds: 33/1

Not been at the races in his last couple of starts, pulling up in both the Troytown and Paddy Power Chase, but is in his element when conditions are soft or worse. What does bode well for him, though, is his record around here, which reads a win and two seconds from just three starts.

He proved he stays three miles with a win at Fairyhouse, but that was a much weaker race than the one he will contest here, and others arrive into the race in better form. I can see him running well for a while if he can get into a nice rhythm, but he has enough to prove at present.

Frontal Assault

• Trainer: Gordon Elliott
• Jockey: Donagh Meyler
• Form: 66-3754
• Odds: 25/1

A generally reliable chaser who has run well the last two times and often runs well in big-field handicaps. He ran a remarkable race on just his fifth chase start to finish second in the 2022 Irish Grand National and finished sixth in this race twelve months ago with a mark of 142.

After a creditable fifth in the Troytown in his penultimate start, he backed it up to finish fourth over 3m5f at Fairyhouse last time and goes well in the mud, which will aid his chance here, with conditions similar. The assessor has also shown him mercy by decreasing his mark 3Ib since his good effort in the race last year.

Angels Dawn

• Trainer: Sam Curling
• Jockey: Phillip Enright
• Form: 1U16-27
• Odds: 13/2

This mare progressed nicely last season and won a decent renewal of the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival. She warmed up for this race with a couple of spins over hurdles but has been beaten a long way both times, and that does ring a few alarm bells heading back over fences in what is a tougher test.

The ground won’t be a problem for her, but I have an inclination that she’s in the handicappers grip now given the fact that she’s 7Ib higher than her win at Cheltenham, and I think her odds are way too short with a new career-best ultimately needed. She can be passed over.

Dunboyne

• Trainer: Gordon Elliott
• Jockey: Jack Kennedy
• Form: 1P24P4
• Odds: 5/1

The current market leader, who is probably Gordon’s best chance of lifting the trophy this year. He is the selected ride of Jack Kennedy, who has picked him ahead of the stable’s other five runners. He lacks consistency, but when he is on a going day, he often runs well. Likewise in this race last year, when he was agonisingly denied in second place by a short head.

He then finished fourth in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham and has since made a good start to the season by finishing fourth in the Troytown. He will get a 10Ib pull in the weights with the Kim Muir winner this time, so connections will fancy their chances of reversing the form this time. He’s heavily respected, despite his odds looking on the short side at present.

Shantreusse

• Trainer: Henry de Bromhead
• Jockey: Darragh O'Keeffe
• Form: 0/4259-2
• Odds: 15/2

My idea of a potential winner of this year’s renewal in spite of Rachael Blackmore opting to ride stablemate Ain’t That A Shame instead. The eight-year-old gained a win and a second in a pair of bumpers prior to a successful season as a novice hurdler by winning twice, including a Grade 3 race.

He was far from disgraced when he finished midfield in the Grade 1 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival and has taken well to fences without success. He’s a heavy-ground lover and ran well over an inadequate trip on his reappearance in a listed race last month.

Despite being winless in five starts in this sphere, he is open to a lot more improvement than most of these, and a mark of 133 looked lenient on balance. Darragh O’Keeffe got some experience riding him last month, and, with this race appearing to be a long-term project this season, he must enter calculations.

Stormy Judge

• Trainer: Pat Fahy
• Jockey: Richard Condon
• Form: 05P/745
• Odds: 15/2

It’s worth recalling how well this horse travelled in the 2022 Leinster National, in which he finished fifth. That eye-catching display then led to him being well backed for the Scottish Grand National at Ayr next time out.

Unfortunately, he was pulled up lame and spent a long time on the sidelines, but he’s shaped pretty well in all three spins over hurdles this term, and he returns to fences from a 7Ib lower mark than when he was last spotted in this sphere.

With his rider’s claim taken into account, he is technically back on his last winning mark, with a low weight to match. All the evidence points to him being a well handicapped horse, and it would come as no surprise to see him figure in the outcome.

Street Value

• Trainer: John Flavin
• Jockey: Danny Mullins
• Form: PF-31P3
• Odds: 12/1

Another interesting runner, who has a really strong record when the ground is described as heavy, gained a second win over fences at Fairyhouse in his penultimate start. That success confirmed he stays further, as he powered to success over the 3m5f distance.

He was last seen running well over an inadequate trip when second at Cork, and he has a record at this course of 1202 from four starts. In addition, he gets a significant pull in the weights for his second behind Dunboyne at this course back in November 2022, and the return to this sort of trip will suit.

Royal Thief

• Trainer: Gordon Elliott
• Jockey: Jake Coen
• Form: B/16-88F
• Odds: 50/1

Has often been let down by his jumping, and that was the case again when he fell last time out in the Paddy Power Chase. When he does put it all together though, he is capable of running well in competitive handicaps, such as when he finished sixth in the Kim Muir last year.

Gordon Elliott’s charge has winning form on heavy ground as well, plus he has no weight on his back in this race. I can see him outperforming his odds, but for win purposes, it is best to look elsewhere.

Thyestes Chase Tips & Prediction

Despite it being regarded as one of the most competitive handicaps in Ireland, the race has often been won by the classier horses in recent years. My shortlist of five includes Any Second Now, Fakir D’alene, Shantreusse, Stormy Judge and Street Value.

Any Second Now has become well treated, but no 12-year-old has ever won this race, and I presume Aintree is his main destination. Fakir D’alene would have place claims if he could repeat his Troytown third, but he will do well to dominate this field.

SHANTREUSSE (best price 15/2) is a Grade 3 winner over hurdles and warmed up for this with an excellent second on his reappearance last month in a listed handicap over a trip short of his best.

He is surely well handicapped off 133, even while still searching for his first win over fences. I fear Rachael has made the wrong decision and should have ridden this unexposed eight-year-old who has plenty in his favour. Six places are generally available.

Shantreusse, 0.5 pts E/W, 15/2, 6 places

The Pat Fahy-trained STORMY JUDGE (best price 15/2) has undoubtedly been aimed at this race and has fallen to a dangerous mark back over fences after three good spins over hurdles since returning from an injury.

He has a fantastic and consistent record on heavy ground and sneaks into this with a tiny weight when taking his rider’s claim into consideration. This race will be run to suit, and should he encounter a trouble-free passage, I can see him going close. Six places are generally available.

Stormy Judge, 0.5 pts E/W, 15/2, 6 places 

STREET VALUE (best price 12/1) is the other one I want to back at the odds. He also saves his best form for a testing surface, and this dual chase winner, who won over 3m5f in a listed race in his penultimate start, ran well over a trip short of his best when third last time.

He gets along well with Danny Mullins, who has a good record in large-field handicaps, and his mount has every chance of beating Dunboyne on these better terms after chasing that rival home the last time he was seen at this course. I think he ticks a lot of boxes and should be thereabouts. Six places are again generally available.

Street Value, 0.5 pts E/W, 6 places