Architect Tips previews the Paddy Power Cotswold Chase on Cheltenham Trials Day.
13:50 Cheltenham
The Paddy Power Cotswold Chase (13:50 on Saturday) has often been classed as one of the leading trial races for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, but you have to go back to the year 2000 to see the last horse to have completed the double, Looks Like Trouble.
All six runners for this year’s renewal remain at a double-figure price for the highlight of the Cheltenham Festival in March, with some of them possibly going elsewhere at the meeting in March. Let’s assess the runners and see who I think will come out on top.
For Dan Overall's Cheltenham Trials Day betting tips, click here.
Paddy Power Cotswold Chase Runners Guide
Ahoy Senor
- Trainer: Lucinda Russell
- Jockey: Stephen Mulqueen
- Form: 51F2-PP
- Odds: 6/1
Last year’s winner, who will bid to become the first back-to-back winner of the race, has some questions to answer now after being pulled up in both of his starts this season. He had previously confirmed himself to be one of the best staying chasers around, but a disastrous start to this campaign has set him back.
He returned a determined winner of this race 12 months ago when seeing off Sounds Russian and was in the process of running well in the Cheltenham Gold Cup while still in front before his late departure. Nevertheless, he proved that his heavy fall left no marks on him, with a fine second to Shishkin at Aintree next time.
While so many good horses over the years have failed to win this in consecutive renewals and his task being difficult to topple in-form and improving opposition, he is dangerous to rule out because of his record here. He might get pestered for the lead, but write him off at your peril.
Royale Pagaille
- Trainer: Venetia Williams
- Jockey: Charlie Deutsch
- Form: 55/26F-1
- Odds: 3/1
A minor setback forced him to miss the King George, and the original plan was for him to try and claim back-to-back wins in the Peter Marsh Chase, but connections are happy to let him tackle this contest. He was last seen giving Bravemansgame a beating in the Betfair Chase at his beloved Haydock, and that display was probably close to, if not, a personal best.
The form has been boosted by the second, who has since filled that same spot in the King George, and there’s no doubt this 10-year-old would be favourite if this race was run at his favourite venue in Merseyside. The concern, however, is that he’s not been at his best in his three previous starts at this course, faring no better than fifth in each of those.
Having said that, all three runs here were in the last three editions of the Cheltenham Gold Cup, so he will find this less demanding to some extent.
If he can translate that latest form into this contest, then he will be tough to beat, but he isn’t guaranteed to do that. He probably won't find a better opportunity to break his duck at this course, so he’s dangerous to dismiss.
Datsalrightgino
- Trainer: Jamie Snowden
- Jockey: Gavin Sheehan
- Form: 22P1-81
- Odds: 6/1
An improving chaser who is going from strength to strength and is worth his place in the field. He chased home Stage Star at this meeting last year when second, and after finishing down the field on his return, he relished the step-up in trip next time out to land the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury.
That form has a solid look to it, and he’s clearly on an upward trajectory, but he does need to find another jolt of improvement if he’s to follow up in this race and wouldn’t want the ground any softer than it is. It would be folly to dismiss his claims, but I have a suspicion he might be out of his depth this weekend.
His five rivals have all won a Grade 1 race, and he’s the only horse who hasn’t. Yes, he’s only had one start at the highest level, which proved inconclusive, but I have never thought of him as a 160+ horse, and that’s the sort of mark he is going to need to achieve if he’s to beat these.
Stay Away Fay
- Trainer: Paul Nicholls
- Jockey: Harry Cobden
- Form: 1214-11
- Odds: 3/1
It is not often a novice tackles this race in their first season over fences, but it just goes to show how highly Paul Nicholls thinks of this talented seven-year-old. Despite lacking a gear, he more than makes up for that trait with his exceptional jumping and staying power and could be a Grand National contender in the near future.
It wouldn’t be the end all if he wasn’t to succeed in this, but I do think he has a serious chance of handing his trainer a sixth win in the race, with plenty in his favour. It was an incredible, gutsy performance in the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle at last year’s Cheltenham Festival, given that it was just his third career start over hurdles.
The form has a questionable look to it, with most of those who he had in behind being beaten since. He concluded his first season over hurdles with a fourth in a Grade 1 at Aintree and has subsequently won both starts over fences, including on his chase debut at Exeter, when he had subsequent winner Grey Dawning in behind.
He has three options at the festival in March: the Brown Advisory, the National Hunt Chase, and the Gold Cup.
It's hard to pinpoint which one of those he will take up, but he’s unexposed, has a lot more to come, and although he has plenty to find on official ratings, he should rate higher after this contest. He will be a tough nut to crack.
The Real Whacker
- Trainer: Patrick Neville
- Jockey: Sam Twiston-Davies
- Form: 0111-P4
- Odds: 9/2
This powerful unit developed into one of the best-staying novice chasers in Britain last season, winning all three of his chase starts at this course, which culminated with a gritty success in the Brown Advisory, where he had the high-class Gerri Colombe, I Am Maximus, and Galia Des Liteaux in behind, who have all advertised the form in their own way since.
His season got off to a low-key start when he was pulled up in the Paddy Power Gold Cup in November, but he showed a bit better form when fourth in the King George, and the return to this venue will undoubtedly suit.
The eight-year-old is likely to try and attack from the front, but might not have it all his own way, with Ahoy Senor and Stay Away Fay being other confirmed front-runners.
Capodanno
- Trainer: Willie Mullins
- Jockey: Paul Townend
- Form: 41/3P-63
- Odds: 8/1
The only Irish representative who has twice succeeded at the Punchestown Festival, and, surprisingly, he is only entered in the Ryanair Chase in March. The eight-year-old had a very good first season over fences, which concluded with a Grade 1 victory in the Champion Novice Chase, but he’s been limited to just three starts since.
He made no impression in the Grand National afterwards, though, and he fared no better on his return last season when he was the last of six runners at Thurles. However, in his latest, when he contested the Savills Chase at Leopardstown, he finished a staying-on third Galopin Des Champs, and that performance suggested he could be back to something near his best.
It was a highly sophisticated performance, given the fact he was virtually upside Gerri Colombe at the finish, and that piece form ties him in closely with The Real Whacker. His only previous visit to Cheltenham was when he finished fourth in the 2022 Brown Advisory, when eight lengths adrift of Ahoy Senor. This race will be run to suit him, and he could go well being the only unpenalised horse in the field.
Cotswold Chase 2024 Tips & Prediction
A competitive field of six, which features five Grade 1 winners, does make this slightly tricky from a betting perspective. The one horse I am happy to rule out is Datsalrightgino, who will find this much tougher than last time.
Ahoy Senor and The Real Whacker haven’t been at their best so far this season and need to get back on track, while Capodanno is eased in grade and could run well if he can put in a good round in the jumping department, but that isn’t guaranteed.
The Betfair Chase winner Royale Pagaille arrives into the race on the back of that personal best, but I get the feeling the horses he had in behind last time out underperformed. That leaves me with the Paul Nicholls-trained STAY AWAY FAY (best price 3/1).
The seven-year-old doesn’t do anything flashy, but he stays and jumps well, and the fact that the champion trainer is happy to let him tackle this race after just two chase starts speaks volumes as to how highly he rates his exciting novice.
Last year’s Albert Bartlett winner subsequently had his chase debut success boosted when the third, Grey Dawning, hacked up in a Grade 2 race when last spotted. The stiff finish will play to his strengths, he has a professional attitude, and he is open to more improvement than his five rivals.
Already well fancied for the Brown Advisory in March, a win here should see him go favourite for that contest. I think his staying power and his exceptional jumping technique will get these out of their comfort zone, and he is fancied to find the requisite improvement to keep his unbeaten chase record intact.
