15:35 Leopardstown

This weekend will see the Dublin Racing Festival take place across two days in Leopardstown, with the feature race on Saturday the Irish Gold Cup (Saturday 15:35).

Defending champion Galopin Des Champs will bid to follow up on last year’s success and strengthen his position at the top of the Cheltenham Gold Cup market (11/10 on Betfred).

The eight-year-old, who won the blue-riband race in fantastic style at the Cheltenham Festival last year, will renew rivalry with Fastorslow, who beat him twice last season in the Punchestown Gold Cup and the John Durkan Memorial Punchestown Chase.

Will the Cheltenham Gold Cup winner retain his crown, or will the latter take the scalp of Willie Mullins’ top-class chaser for a third time? Let me assess each of the four runners before providing my betting tips and prediction.

Irish Gold Cup Runners Guide 

Conflated 

  • Trainer: Gordon Elliott
  • Jockey: Jack Kennedy
  • Form: 13P-53U
  • Odds: 8/1

 

Last season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup third has been far from his best in three starts this season and was weakening into third before he unseated his rider at the last fence in the Savills Chase behind mightily impressive winner Galopin Des Champs.

His only previous start in this race was in 2022, in which he won it by five lengths, and he followed up later that year in the Savills Chase over the same course and distance.

His best form would entitle him to be thereabouts, but I have a suspicion that his Gold Cup performance from last year has left its mark. He has twice been comfortably held by the favourite, and I am struggling to see how he can possibly turn the form around.

This has probably been his main target again, but a major resurgence in form is required, and that unfortunately looks doubtful this weekend. He can be passed over.

Fastorslow 

  • Trainer: Martin Brassil
  • Jockey: JJ Slevin
  • Form: 25521-1
  • Odds: 3/1

 

A major improver over the past 12 months, who had been winless for this stable - albeit coming close several times - before landing back-to-back Grade 1 races, in which he beat Galopin Des Champs twice.

The runner-up had excuses for each defeat, but take nothing away from the former, who beat the Cheltenham Gold Cup first and second prior to making a successful return in the John Durkan.

This improving eight-year-old has also narrowly been denied at the last two Cheltenham Festivals. Firstly, when a short head second to Camprond in the 2022 Coral Cup, and then last year when a neck second to Corach Rambler, who gave the form a boost by winning the Grand National on his next start.

He continued where he left off last season by landing the John Durkan on his return, and he remains open to improvement over three miles, but his record at Leopardstown, in contrast to his record at Punchestown, is less than attractive. That is a worrisome problem, with himself still rated 12Ib lower than the favourite, even after beating him twice.

I know he has improved a lot since the last time he ran at the course, when he was heavily beaten by Galopin Des Champs, but he’s been well beaten in all three starts at the course. It is difficult to see him beating the favourite this time if that rival can perform to his best, whose record here over fences here is exemplary, so more is undoubtedly needed.

Galopin Des Champs

  • Trainer: Willie Mullins
  • Jockey: Paul Townend
  • Form: 1112-31
  • Odds: 4/9

 

One of the best staying chasers of the modern era, whose surge to the top of the division has culminated in six Grade 1 wins, including an easy eight-length winner of this race 12 months ago before going on to land the Cheltenham Gold Cup by seven lengths.

Despite being turned over by Fastorslow in his next couple of starts, excuses came to light, given he encountered a hard race in the Gold Cup at Cheltenham and was competing over a trip short of his best on his return, plus he’s better going left-handed.

He then proved why he’s the real deal by bouncing back to winning ways in the Savills Chase over the Christmas period, turning a high-class renewal into a procession, as he beat Gerri Colombe by 23 lengths, which earned him a rating of 180.

He is unbeaten in four starts over fences at Leopardstown, all of which have come at the highest level, and twice over course-and-distance. He will be short odds to follow up with a successful defence of the Irish Gold Cup at the Foxrock circuit, and rightfully so after that dominant display last time.

The form has already worked out well, with the third, Capodanno, subsequently winning the Grade 2 Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham. Willie Mullins has his team in flying form, which adds further confidence about the Gold Cup winner’s chances.

Historically, this race has been won by a horse who has gone on to win it in consecutive years, with household names such as Florida Pearl, Beef Or Salmon, and Carlingford Lough of the modern era achieving this feat.

This exceptional racehorse must have an excellent chance to add his name to that list and remain the horse they all have to beat at Cheltenham in March. He is a worthy favourite and is impossible to oppose at this venue, which ultimately brings the best out of him.

I Am Maximus 

  • Trainer: Willie Mullins
  • Jockey: Jody McGarvey
  • Form: 2441-14
  • Odds: 33/1

 

Twice a winner for Nicky Henderson, he has been highly tried over fences since being turned over at short odds in his first couple of chase starts. 

The eight-year-old ran a solid race when fourth in last year’s Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival before winning the Irish Grand National when stepping up markedly in distance to three miles and five furlongs.

He then made his seasonal reappearance in the Grade 1 Drinmore Novice Chase, reverting to two miles and four furlongs, and won the race by two and a half lengths. The runner-up, Found A Fifty, has subsequently advertised the form by taking the Racing Post Novice Chase in his next start, so the form has substance. 

His latest fourth behind stablemate Galopin Des Champs in the Savills Chase was a highly respectable effort on ground that was soft enough for him. 

Owner John McManus has a good record in this race, winning three of the last nine renewals, so this sole representative must be respected. It will be tough to see him beat the defending champion, who beat him easily last time, but a bigger performance is anticipated and I can see him finishing in the first three.

Irish Gold Cup Tips & Prediction 

GALOPIN DES CHAMPS (best price 4/9) is strongly fancied to enhance his perfect record over fences at Leopardstown by winning this for a second consecutive year. 

His performance was last time in the Savills Chase over this course, and the distance was on par with his Cheltenham Gold Cup win last year, according to RRP's, and I cannot see how the other three can beat him. He is short odds but impossible to overlook and can justify favouritism.