Architect Tips shares two betting tips for Saturday’s Betfair Hurdle at Newbury.
Betfair Hurdle 2024
The highlight of Saturday’s racing is the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury, regarded as one of the most difficult handicaps to solve in the season. This year is no exception, with 25 runners declared. Let’s have a look at all those 20/1 or shorter for the race.
Betfair Hurdle Newbury Runners Guide
Luccia (20/1)
A gorgeous-looking mare, who has won five of her nine starts, and resumed winning ways in the Betfair Exchange Trophy under a positive ride by Paul O’Brien. She only had a neck to spare over Impose Toi at the line, but she won with more in hand than the winning margin suggested, and a 4Ib rise seems quite generous.
After winning her first four starts, including her first couple of hurdle starts at Listed level, she placed in the Grade 2 Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle and the Grade 1 Top Novices’ Hurdle before making the frame in her two previous starts this season, including when she finished a respectable third in the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham.
She will face more pressure for the lead this time, but Nicky Henderson’s charge is really consistent, she is well-suited to a large-field scenario, and she has more to come (50/1 best price for the Champion Hurdle next month).
Her only previous start at this course resulted in an emphatic hurdles debut success by five and a half lengths. The top weight has to be high on the shortlist and is overpriced.
Spirit D’Aunou (14/1)
Arrives here at the top of his game and must enter the reckoning given his upwardly mobile profile. This five-year-old knows the winning habit, having won five of his seven starts over hurdles and ploughed through testing conditions at Sandown in December.
That was a much weaker race than the one he will contest here, but he has winning form in nearly all types of conditions and is open to improvement. A 10Ib rise for that latest win does seem a little harsh, but he might be able to raise his game again.
He cannot be ruled out, despite needing more to trouble a few of these. His trainer, Gary Moore, has won this three times in the past.
Faivoir (50/1)
Not the most consistent of participants given his patchy profile but he sprung a surprise when he won the County Hurdle last season from only a 3Ib lower mark and proved he can still be competitive at a useful level when finishing second to Gin Coco in his penultimate start.
The nine-year-old failed to duplicate that form when last seen but is the type to bounce back, and he could run well at a big price. Still, others look better treated at present and arrive in slightly healthier form. He isn’t for me and can confidently be passed over.
Knickerbockerglory (40/1)
This stablemate of the former returned a game winner from the front at Ascot in his penultimate start when repelling all challengers at Ascot, but was turned out relatively quickly in the Greatwood Hurdle just two weeks later.
He wasn’t able to produce his best, but he far from disgraced himself in finishing seventh and should be freshened up now. He is another who could run well at a huge price, but again, I think others hold stronger claims for this race.
Lookaway (12/1)
This battle-hardened seven-year-old has to be considered one of the leading contenders having won a highly competitive Grade 2 bumper race at Aintree in 2022.
Although he failed to make an impact in his first three starts over hurdles, everything has clicked since the application of positive tactics. He has won three of his five starts, including a Grade 2 at Cheltenham’s October meeting, and has finished second in the other two.
He made a brave bid from the front when only finding Iberico Lord too good in the Greatwood Hurdle, in which he was conceding 6Ib to the winner, before chasing home Captain Teague in the Challow Hurdle here when upped in trip.
This has been the plan since and not many other runners arrive in better form. This distance will suit him better than last time, and he could be hard to peg back if he’s allowed to get into his usual positive rhythm.
Under Control (14/1)
A likeable mare for the Nicky Henderson team, who had won four of her first five starts over hurdles, including wins in competitive events at Cheltenham and Sandown.
She ran below form when only seventh on her seasonal reappearance, but took a major step forward from that to finish runner-up in a Grade 2 race at Doncaster, in which she split Grade 1 winners Ashroe Diamond and Gala Marceau (ante-post leaders for the Mares’ Hurdle).
That was a career-best effort, and she is back in handicap company with a nice mark of 137. Nico De Boinville has opted to ride Iberico Lord instead, but she still looks like a leading player with improvement on the cards.
Brentford Hope (14/1)
This race has long been his target, as Harry Derham has resisted the temptation of running him over Christmas in favour of this contest, so that he’s a fresher horse, which is when he’s at his best.
This smart flat performer was last seen finishing an excellent third in the Gerry Feilden to Hansard at this course from an 11Ib higher mark than when he bolted up here on his reappearance.
He gets a 3Ib pull with the winner, and the race should be run to suit, but he might be in the handicappers grip now. I think he will be thereabouts, but for win purposes, he’s vulnerable, so I’ll pass him over.
Iberico Lord (8/1)
This six-year-old improved beyond all recognition when he returned an impressive two and a half-lengths winner of the Greatwood Hurdle on his return but failed to back that up when only seventh at Ascot next time out. Still, he is well fancied in the betting market and could bounce back.
I suspect he will be better suited to a step-up in trip, though, and this looks even tougher than last time out. However, all of his best form has come on soft ground or worse, so the arrival of rain will certainly help, and he remains a horse who could yet rank higher.
Ocastle Des Mottes (5/1)
This Irish raider is by far the most interesting runner representing Willie Mullins, who has been backed off the boards this past week into favouritism, but it is difficult to get to grips on whether he is well handicapped or not heading into such a deep race on his stable debut.
He won his final start in France off a mark of 125 and is an unknown quantity, but it’s weather-permitted as to whether he travels over to contest the race. Even if he does, I’ll be taking him on. I think he’s a ludicrous price for such a fiercely competitive race, and his form is not looking that strong either.
Doddiethegreat (25/1)
Given who trains him and his eye-catching profile, he will attract the attention of some. He won his four starts, which included two bumpers and his first two starts in this sphere, before losing his unbeaten record when second to Go Dante at Cheltenham.
More will be needed in this company, but he lost little in defeat in conceding 6Ib to Olly Murphy’s charge last time when encountering soft ground for the first time in his career.
The eight-year-old won very well after a two-year layoff at Ascot and remains unexposed while being open to improvement after just four starts under rules.
Although this is a tough task, his mark has only been raised 1Ib from last time, which seems fair, and he will come on plenty from his latest effort. He took a blow on a couple of occasions in the home straight before staying on well and cannot be dismissed here.
Aurigny Mill (14/1)
Victor Dartnall is best known for his exploits in handicaps and has described this seven-year-old as one of the best horses he has had. He has won his last two starts at Wincanton and Kempton impressively, and although he is up 9Ib, further improvement is anticipated.
It had taken a while for connections to get a clean run with him, but now that his past issues are out of the way, his last two wins have demonstrated that he is a horse going places. He is into the deep waters now, but his handler is confident about his chances, and he could run very well.
Kamsinas (20/1)
Produced some good form in bumpers but has bettered that since going hurdling this season, winning two of his four starts, including a Grade 2 race in his penultimate outing. As well as that, he finished runner-up to Lookaway off-level weights in a Grade 2 race at Cheltenham and will be 5Ib better off with that rival here.
He did the best of those held up that day, whereas the winner was allowed to dictate matters on the front end. His latest run came in the Grade 1 Formby Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree, and while he travelled well to hold every chance at the second last hurdle, he gradually faded out of contention and could only manage sixth.
It was transparent that he failed to run to his best as the horse he beat at Haydock finished way in front of him this time. Still, he remains an interesting runner in a race that should be run at a good tempo, which will suit him, and an opening mark of 132 on handicap debut seems lenient for a Grade 2 winner over timber. He appeals as the sort of horse who can surpass it.
What is also noteworthy is that novices venturing into handicaps, especially those with established form in graded company, have often fared well in this contest over the years. The seven-year-old will be on a handy weight, plus Jack Hogan can claim an additional 7Ib to boot.
Altobelli (7/1)
Another nice youngster with the right sort of profile for this race. He won his first three starts under rules, including his first couple of outings over hurdles, and has made the frame in both starts this term to suggest he’s probably still ahead of his mark with plenty of room for improvement.
He did very well to finish as close as he did last time at Ascot, considering the ground dried up too much for him and he had to encounter a wider course than the two who finished in front of him. He will essentially meet the winner on 4Ib better terms this weekend, and he remains on the same mark of 132.
His only disappointment came when he was highly tried in the Grade 1 Top Novices' Hurdle at Aintree at the end of last season when ninth, but otherwise, he has been rock solid. The forecast rain will suit him, and the course should play to his strengths, so a strong case can definitely be made for him.
L’Eau Du Sud (16/1)
Having won twice over hurdles in France, he could unfortunately fare no better than fourth on his stable debut. However, he made the frame in a valuable handicap at Kempton next time when third prior to filling the same spot in the Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso.
He failed to make an impact when pulled up in the Greatwood Hurdle on his return, but he should be fitter now, and he retains potential. This is a deep enough race to leave that form behind, though, and a place might be the best he can hope for.
Go Dante (25/1)
The eight-year-old looked like a horse of the highest promise after returning a wide-margin winner of a bumper and on his hurdles debut, but struggled for a while afterwards. However, there were positives to glean from his sixth in the Greatwood Hurdle on his seasonal return, and he then won at Cheltenham, where he did well to overcome a mistake at the last hurdle.
The form of his Cheltenham win has worked out quite well too, while his regular rider Sean Bowen will return to action to take the ride.
His mount is 4Ib higher for that latest win, but he still looks well treated with a mark of 129, and his trainer has had a clear run with him this season. A new personal best will be required if he’s to succeed, but he has an each-way chance.
Betfair Hurdle Odds
| Name | Best price | Worst Price |
|---|---|---|
| Ocastle Des Mottes | 5/1 | 4/1 |
| Iberico Lord | 8/1 | 5/1 |
| Altobelli | 7/1 | 7/1 |
| Lookaway | 12/1 | 10/1 |
| Brentford Hope | 14/1 | 10/1 |
| Spirit D'Aunou | 14/1 | 12/1 |
| Under Control | 14/1 | 10/1 |
| Aurigny Mill | 14/1 | 10/1 |
| L'Eau Du Sud | 16/1 | 12/1 |
| Onlyamatteroftime | 16/1 | 12/1 |
| Luccia | 20/1 | 14/1 |
Who is the favourite to win the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury?
Ocastle Des Mottes is the bookmakers' favourite to win the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury with a best price of 5/1 on bet365 (implied 16% chance).
Betfair Hurdle Tips & Prediction
This is a really difficult puzzle to solve, given the fact that most of the field could be considered to come out on top. However, I’m keen on two at a decent price.
LUCCIA (best price 20/1) is faced with carrying top-weight, but she won with more in hand than the margin indicated at Ascot last time when she had a few of these in behind, and a 4Ib rise is really fair.
Nicky Henderson’s mare is extremely consistent, has beaten a few of these already, and connections have booked David Bass to ride. She has proved she can handle all different ground conditions, she has more to come, and should make a bold bid.
Advised Bet: Luccia, 1pt E/W, 20/1 (Six Places)
GO DANTE (best price 22/1) wasn’t able to deliver on the early promise he had shown when he first started out over hurdles, but his latest win at Cheltenham was impressive, considering he overcame a mistake at the last hurdle to win going away under a confident ride.
A 4Ib rise seems very lenient given how much he had in hand at the finish and the in-form Olly Murphy has long had this race mapped out for the eight-year-old. He is a strong-traveller, who will be suited to a strong pace and must have a solid each-way chance. Most firms are paying six places.
