Architect Tips looks at the Betfair Ascot Chase this weekend, including a tip for the race.
Betfair Ascot Chase 2024
Just four will go to post in Saturday's Grade 1 Betfair Ascot Chase, featuring leading Cheltenham Gold Cup contender L'Homme Presse.
Architect Tips weighs up the four Ascot Chase runners for the 3:36 on Saturday.
Betfair Ascot Chase Runners
Ahoy Senor - 6/1
This nine-year-old has all the talent in the world, with two Grade 1 wins to his CV, but recurring issues in the jumping department have halted further success in his career.
However, he ran really well to finish fourth in last month’s Cotswolds Chase, considering he encountered a tack problem at the fifth last fence, which ultimately affected his rider’s balance, who was then unable to get his mount into a fluent rhythm.
To be fair to the horse, he actually jumped and travelled very well throughout, much like the best horse in the race, but his tame finishing effort left a lot to be desired.
Another caveat is that he has chiefly been kept to going left-handed, and the only time he has gone anticlockwise was when he unseated his rider in the Colin Parker Memorial Intermediate Chase at Carlisle on his chase debut.
That does ring alarm bells, but now that he’s older, it might well suit, and his positive style of racing should suit around here. He has plenty of pace, so the drop-in trip might also be favourable, but he’s likely to face early competition for the lead with Pic D’Orhy in the field.
Depending on how he copes with the return to a right-handed track, he is dangerous to rule out despite coming with risks attached. He is currently a best price 16/1 on bet365 for the Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival next month.
L’Homme Presse - 8/11F
The highest-rated chaser in the field and the one to beat. The nine-year-old sustained a season-ending injury when he unseated Charlie Deutsch in the 2022 King George VI Chase, having looked set to finish second, but he subsequently made a successful return from a layoff in last month’s Fleur De Lys Chase at Lingfield.
He was up against the race-fit Protektorat but jumped well and stayed on strongly to score by two lengths. He is sure to be sharper for that return, and the easier ground plus the return to a right-handed track won’t inconvenience him either. He has also won seven of his eight completed chase starts.
His only previous visit to this course resulted in an emphatic 13-length success over course and distance, so the course will play to his strengths, and he could have more to come given this will be only his fourth start over fences outside of novice company. Adding to that, he is a Grade 1 winner going this way around.
L’Homme Presse is currently 10/1 on Betfred to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Pic D’Orhy - 5/2
A brilliant, bold-jumping, front-runner who arrives into the race in excellent form and wears his heart on his sleeve. He claimed a much-deserved first Grade 1 success at Aintree when beating Fakir D'oudairies in last year's Marsh Chase and has shown no signs of regression.
He is at the peak of his powers, having won five of his last seven starts as well as finishing second in the other two. He made a triumphant reappearance when returning a 16-length winner over course-and-distance and then made Banbridge pull out all of the stops at Kempton last month.
He jumped really well throughout, with the exception of the last fence, and only just failed to concede 3Ib to the winner. While he proved no match for Shishkin in this race last year, when he was a distant second to Nicky Henderson’s Gold Cup contender, he still acquitted himself well and has improved since.
This has been his main target this season, and his excellent jumping is again likely to come to the fore at a track he knows too well. If the ground remains no worse than soft, he is going to prove a tough nut to crack. His one-dimensional running style is sure to give him another great chance of top-tier success.
Pic D’Orhy remains 33/1 on Betfair for the Ryanair at Cheltenham despite being as short as 12/1 with several other bookmakers.
Sail Away - 50/1
The lowest-rated runner of the quartet looks massively out of his depth at this level. He is a gorgeous-looking horse who jumps very well, but I have an inclination that this race is being used to protect his handicap mark, with the possibility of tackling the Grand National in April.
He was last seen running well to finish fourth in the Great Yorkshire at Doncaster and should complete the course here without troubling his three rivals. He is one to keep in mind for later down the line, though.
Betfair Ascot Chase Tips & Prediction
Despite less than a handful of runners again for this illustrious Grade 1 prize, this should be a cracking race. Tactics are sure to play a principal part, as it will be interesting to see who will grab the lead, with three of today’s field notable front-runners.
My suspicion is that Ahoy Senor and Sail Way will set the early fractions by taking each other on for the lead, with Pic D’Orhy and L’Homme Presse close in behind.
I am mindful that this could change, and whoever does lead might be uncontested, but I’m going to nominate PIC D’ORHY (best price 5/2) to hopefully go one better than last year.
Paul Nicholls’ charge has the beating of Fakir D’Oudairies and is a far more trustworthy proposition than Ahoy Senor. His biggest danger is L’Homme Presse, but the former is likely to apply pressure to his jumping around this sharper test than he’s used to these days. Last year’s runner-up will exploit any potential mistakes made by the remainder.
