Architect Tips has two tips for the Coral Chase at Kempton on Saturday.
Coral Chase
The Grade Three handicap is run over three miles, and we have 14 runners set to go to post for this year's renewal. I have covered each runner with two selections attached.
Coral Chase Runners
Sam Brown - 25/1
At the latter stages of his career, the 12-year-old will be required to shoulder top-weight in this race, but he took a major step forward from his first couple of starts this season to claim the Unibet Veterans' Handicap Chase at Warwick in his penultimate start.
He fared the best of those held up to get the better of Aye Right on the run-in. He could only finish fourth in the Grade 2 Denman Chase in his most recent start, but he will find this easier back in handicap company and cannot be ruled out with conditions expected to suit.
Al Dancer - 10/1
Has been an extremely consistent servant over the years and has only been out of the frame once in his last seven starts. He enhanced his good record when fresh by scoring very easily at Chepstow on his return, and he has subsequently backed that up with two solid placed efforts at Aintree and Cheltenham.
He stayed on well to take third in the Grade 2 Old Roan Chase at Aintree, despite the omitted fences not helping his cause, before filling the same spot next time out. Dylan Johnston claims 3Ib, but his two previous efforts here were disappointing, and I’m not sure he is crying out for three miles at this later stage in his career.
II Ridoto - 10/1
Represents the champion trainer Paul Nicholls, who has won this race twice in his career, courtesy of Gungadu in 2008 and Rocky Creek in 2015.
He did very well last season, including when he won the Paddy Power Cheltenham Countdown Podcast Handicap Chase at Cheltenham in January.
He has looked as good as ever this season by making the frame in three red-hot handicaps at Cheltenham. He reappeared with a fine third in the Paddy Power Gold Cup prior to an agonising neck-second in the December Gold Cup.
He has subsequently matched those fine efforts with a third place behind Ga Law last time out, and the handicapper has surprisingly reacted with a pound drop in the weights.
However, he is another who has to prove he can stay this longer trip, as he will be venturing into unknown territory over three miles.
If he does improve for it, though, he should be heavily involved, with his form being among the best in the field.
Tweed Skirt - 7/1
Achieved a decent level of form over hurdles but has raised her game since going chasing, and she enhanced her fine record at this course by recording a second win at the course by five lengths over course and distance in her penultimate start.
The form hasn’t exactly worked out great, but the way she travelled before quickening away from her rivals was impressive, and she warmed up for this with an excellent third behind stablemate Marie’s Rock in the Grade 2 Warfield Mares' Hurdle.
She returns to chasing off an eight-pound higher mark, but we know she acts effectively over track and trip, and she could play a leading role in the outcome. Her trainer, Nicky Henderson, last won this race 20 years ago with Marlborough.
Flegmatik - 5/1
Gained a third-course win with a smooth victory over course and distance last month when beating one of the leading Ultima Handicap market leaders, Chase Chianti, by two lengths. I think a three-pound rise seems lenient, and he came within a neck of winning this last year when beaten only a neck by Our Power.
Despite a series of good performances since, he is only five pounds higher, so it’s been a good bit of placing by his handler, Dan Skelton. The nine-year-old does tick a lot of the main trends, and if the ground doesn’t become too testing, he must be feared given his current groove. He is one of the in-form participants.
Blackjack Magic - 10/1
Did very well last year, winning three times, including a strong renewal of the Badger Beer Chase at Wincanton, which has been positively advertised since, with the runner-up, Threeunderthrufive, claiming a hot handicap at Ascot last weekend.
A repeat of that performance would give him outstanding claims, but he hasn’t backed that up in two subsequent starts, and he was below form when only fifth at Sandown last time out, having been supported into favouritism. Even so, we know he’s better than that.
He does need to get back on track to have a chance, but a bit of juice in the ground will suit, and this course should really play to his strengths. Sam Twiston-Davies has been booked to ride; he has won this race three times, including last year.
Forward Plan - 15/2
Stablemate of Blackjack Magic with a fine strike rate in this sphere with three wins and four placed efforts from just eight starts. He was only sixth behind the former in the Badger Beer on his seasonal debut, but returned a decisive winner at Doncaster on his penultimate start when doing the best of those who were held up off the pace.
Another career-best performance was then to follow, as he came within a whisker of landing the Great Yorkshire over the same course and distance last month. His effort can be hugely upgraded, given that the winner was granted an uncontested lead. He was forced to make up so much ground and only lose by a nose, with nearly four lengths back to the third.
A four-pound rise is hardly detrimental, which could have been a lot worse. He has more to come and should have this race run to suit him, while regular rider Ben Godfrey can claim his additional three pounds to compensate for his gradual rise in weight. If the ground is no worse than soft, I can see him running another big race.
Bowtogreatness - 8/1
It’s fair to say trainer Ben Pauling and jockey Ben Jones are in a rich vein of form, and after a treble last Saturday, confidence in the stable will be high this weekend. With six winners over the past week and counting, there’s every possibility this eight-year-old will run well.
After winning twice as a novice hurdler, he was deemed good enough to compete in a Grade 1 race at Aintree and has been campaigned over fences since.
He’s yet to win in this sphere but has run with credit on a few occasions now to suggest his turn might be near, including when second to a Midnight River in the William Hill Handicap Chase at Aintree last April, which is a key piece of form. For starters, the winner is now rated in the high 150s, while the second Kinondu Kwetu was subsequently placed in the Summer Cup at Uttoxeter with a mark of 145.
As well as that, his stablemate Shakem’uparry, who was two places behind him at Aintree, won at Cheltenham last time off 139, and the seventh, Nassalam, bolted up in the Welsh Grand National off 141 when last spotted. With that in mind, he must be well handicapped off 133, and he is completely unexposed over this trip. He is versatile in regards to conditions and has to be on the shortlist.
Lord Baddesley - 15/2
Another with stamina to prove over three miles, but he only found one too good at Newbury last time out when stepped up in distance to two miles and six furlongs. The winner, Inch House, has been beaten since, but the nine-year-old should have improvement to come.
This is a rise in grade, though, and while I get the impression he might find a few too good, a three-pound rise for his effort last time out seems reasonable. What bodes well for him is his trainer’s good run of form, who has hit a purple patch in recent weeks.
Killer Kane - 12/1
Hard to knock this dual course and distance winner’s consistency. He won over track and trip last February, prior to finishing fifth in this race last year. He then finished a creditable third in the Topham Chase at Aintree and has made the frame in his last couple of starts.
The handicapper has left him with an unchanged mark of 131, and this race has probably been his target. He remains five pounds higher than when he ran in it last year, but his handler is enjoying a fine season, and he could improve on last year’s performance.
Unanswered Prayers - 33/1
Has undergone wind surgery since finishing a well-beaten fifth here last time, which could help, but he’s been winless for over a year now and still remains 4Ib above his last winning mark.
That win also came over a shorter distance, and his form over three miles is underwhelming, to say the least. He will find this tougher than last time and has plenty to prove, so it is easy to look elsewhere.
Cap Du Nord - 20/1
Won this two years ago from a nine-pound higher mark when beating last year’s winner, Our Power. His form since has been mixed, and he could only manage ninth in this twelve months ago, which came after a decisive win in the Swinley Handicap Chase at Ascot.
He wasn’t disgraced in the Great Yorkshire last time out, but he’s not been at his best for a while now and has questions to answer. He is a risky proposition despite his slide in mark and low weight, and can be passed over in favour of a few others who arrive in better form at present.
Coral Chase Tips & Prediction
As ever, this is a wide-open renewal of the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase, but trainer Anthony Honeyball has two major contenders, and they are the selections, with five places generally available.
BLACKJACK MAGIC (best price 10/1) hasn’t been seen to best effect the last twice under quieter tactics than usual, but with Sam Twiston-Davies booked to ride, a return to positive tactics is likely to be in order, and that is when the nine-year-old can often produce his best. His defeat of Paul Nicholls’ Threeunderthrufive could hardly look better, and he should make a bold bid with plenty in his favour.
His stablemate, FORWARD PLAN (best price 15/2), turned in a career-best performance when only just failing to win the Great Yorkshire at Doncaster last time out, and a four-pound rise doesn’t seem excessive. His form over fences, when excluding his reappearance, reads 2113212, and I doubt he has finished improving. He will get the race run to suit him and should be extremely competitive.
