Architect Tips has two betting tips for the Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso.
14:50 Saturday
The bet365 Morebattle Hurdle is the feature at Kelso on Saturday, and with a prize fund of £120,000, it is hardly surprising to see that it has attracted a large field.
With most bookmakers going 5/1 the field, this year’s renewal has a wide-open look about it, but who will come out on top or run very well?
Let’s assess some of the runners with an analysis before providing you with my tips and predictions for the race in the hope we can identify the winner.
Morebattle Hurdle Runners Guide
Benson - 12/1
Last year’s winner. The top-weight won this race by two lengths twelve months ago, and that piece of form has worked out well, with the second (Colonel Mustard) and third (L’Eau du Sud), subsequently finishing runner-up in the Kingwell Hurdle and Betfair Hurdle. He recently ran well to finish fourth in the Scottish County Hurdle under a big weight and should make a bold bid to defend his crown despite being 5Ib higher than last year.
Under Control - 7/2f
With a good strike rate under rules that reads four wins from just seven starts, this mare will be popular with most and remains the current mark leader.
Her defeat of Iberico Lord at Sandown has been boosted, as the latter subsequently won the Betfair Hurdle. She’s since run well to finish second against her own sex in the Grade 2 Yorkshire Rose Mares' Hurdle, splitting Grade 1 winners Ashroe Diamond and Gala Marceau. That is a quality piece of form, and a mark of 138 seems reasonable. One for the shortlist.
Anyharminasking - 16/1
Not without each-way hope judged on his second to Nemean Lion in last season’s Welsh Champion Hurdle. The seven-year-old hasn’t quite seen out longer trips the last two times, but should be suited to the return to this shorter distance and will appreciate a strong pace.
He has often threatened to win a decent handicap for connections, and he could run better than his double-figure odds suggest for the Jonjo O’Neill combination.
Geromino - 25/1
In brilliant form of late, winning back-to-back handicaps at Doncaster, and while he has been hot with an 8Ib rise, he could have plenty more to come. He ran really well on his last visit here when second, albeit over fences, but this does look like a deeper race than both of his latest two wins, so improvement will be needed. Still, he cannot be ruled out for place-based purposes.
Little Mixup - 25/1
The only Irish raider in the field who was last seen winning at Thurles. He won three times last year and will arrive in the race in good form, but his latest success wouldn’t be enough to come out on top.
He also seems ground-dependent, with all of his wins coming on softer surfaces than he’s likely to get this weekend. A 14Ib rise for his latest win seems harsh too, so he can be passed over in favour of better-treated runners.
N’Golo - 33/1
A one-time potential smart prospect who was formerly trained by Willie Mullins, but he’s been very lightly-raced in recent years. The nine-year-old does boast some strong form, including when he was successful in the Swinton Handicap Hurdle at Haydock on his penultimate start.
However, that was nearly two years ago, and not only his fitness needs to be taken into trust but also his well-being. He was well beaten in his only previous visit here too, so he has plenty to prove.
Bingoo - 10/1
Without a shadow of a doubt, this eight-year-old, trained by James Moffatt, is one of the significant improvers in the field. He has won four of his six starts over hurdles, as well as placing in the other two.
He completed three wins on the bounce when scoring at Aintree last time out over two and a half miles. The return to two miles won’t hinder his chances given that he’s won several times over the distance and should have improvement to come off a mark of 130. He is a serious each-way player.
Rewired - 14/1
Another with an each-way shout. This six-year-old has won three of his last four starts and couldn’t have won any easier at Taunton when last spotted.
This is a significant rise in grade, but a mark of 127 shouldn’t be his limit, and he could run well. Nevertheless, he was well held into second in an easier race in his only previous start at the course and will find this even tougher.
Bass Rock - 40/1
Returns to hurdles after running below form in two starts over fences this season. He could be a dark horse for the race, though, as the last time he competed over the smaller obstacles, he won off a mark of 130.
He is eligible to run in this off 127, and that’s without Lewis Dobb claiming an additional 7Ibs, which would essentially see him on 120. At a humongous price, he makes some each-way appeal for last year’s winning handler, Sandy Thomson.
Salsada - 11/1
The seven-year-old mare won three times on the flat and has taken well to hurdles. She won her hurdles debut at Sedgefield prior to finishing runner-up three times, including when second to Epatante in last year’s renewal of the Grade 2 Yorkshire Rose Mares' Hurdle.
She’s not been seen in nearly a year but caught the eye in her most recent start, when she finished fifth in the Scottish Championship Hurdle and is 1Ib lower. Daryl Jacob is a positive jockey, and she could be ready to run a huge race. Definitely one of the leading contenders.
Black Hawk Eagle - 5/1
Represents the bang-in-form Kerry Lee team and will aim to try and complete a hat-trick of wins after victories at Wincanton and Hereford. He justified favouritism last time out but will need to raise his game if he’s to win this competitive handicap on just his fourth start for the yard.
I can see him filling the frame, potentially with improvement on the cards, but a few others might just have the class edge over him.
Skycutter - 8/1
Rated as high as 98 on the flat and came good for Dan Skelton when scoring with any amount in hand at Carlisle last time out. That victory has earned him a 6Ib rise, but a mark of 121 probably still underestimates his ability and credentials.
The unexposed six-year-old sneaks into this race near the foot of the weights and could play a significant role in the outcome. If he’s within striking distance late on, his flat speed could be too much for these.
Morebattle Hurdle Tips & Prediction
It's a cracking renewal of the Morebattle Hurdle, but Nicky Henderson’s UNDER CONTROL (best price 3/1) should be difficult to beat. Her latest second when splitting a pair of Willie Mullins’ Grade 1 winners is the standout piece of form, and both the ground and track should suit. I would have her a touch shorter in the market, so the current odds appeal, and she gets the main vote.
Under Control, 1.5pts WIN, 7/2
SKYCUTTER (best price 8/1) is worth an each-way investment in the race. He achieved a smart level of form on the flat and returned a convincing winner at Carlisle last time out. This race is obviously more demanding, but he is well handicapped off a mark of 121 with Tristan Durrell taking off 3Ib and could give the favourite plenty to think about. He can be backed with bookmakers paying five places.
