Architect Tips looks for betting value in the Top Trainer market at Cheltenham.
Cheltenham Top Trainer
Willie Mullins is rated more than 90% likely to be the Top Trainer at the Cheltenham Festival, even at the best odds through oddschecker.
Likely winner Willie Mullins is not a betting proposition
Having been crowned the leading trainer at the festival for the 10th time in 2023, it is hardly surprising to see Willie Mullins as the odds-on favourite (1/10) to become the top trainer for a sixth consecutive year.
With 94 Cheltenham Festival winners in his collection, if the great man can match last year’s feat of sending out six winners, then he will become the first trainer to reach an incredible milestone of 100 winners at the meeting.
It’s been another superb season for Willie Mullins, who bagged eight Grade 1 contests at this year’s Dublin Racing Festival, which suggests his team for Cheltenham will be as strong as it’s ever been.
His team will consist of horses such as Galopin Des Champs (5/4 on William Hill for the Cheltenham Gold Cup), El Fabiolo, State Man, and Lossiemouth, along with other leading contenders for other respective races during the week. He’s the likely winner but hardly a betting proposition.
Nicky Henderson could have a good week
Before Mullins surpassed him, Nicky Henderson led the way as the Festival’s all-time leading trainer. He has 73 Cheltenham Festival winners to his name and is currently installed as the third favourite at 16/1 on bet365. That could appeal to some, given his star power this year.
Even without Constitution Hill, some of his main players include Sir Gino, Jonbon, Shishkin, Jeriko Du Reponet, and Shanagh Bob. The last time Nicky went close to taking the crown was in 2019, when he finished equal on four winners with Mullins but lost the crown due to the latter having more placed horses.
It’s not been a smooth couple of months for the Seven Barrows maestro, especially with the latest news regarding Constitution Hill, but it would come as a major surprise if he went home empty-handed, as a winner or two surely beckons next week. It is, however, hard to imagine him taking top honours this year.
W/O Mullins Market for Gordon Elliott is value
On the oddschecker grid, though, there is a betting market that could offer some value. That being the top trainer without Mullins, and in this instance, the odds about Gordon Elliott in this market seem attractive. He is available at 4/6 with BetMGM (7/1 with the same bookmaker in the main trainer market).
Elliott could have plenty of winners throughout the week in spite of his great challenger holding key chances. In the last decade or so, Gordon remains the only trainer to have wrestled the crown away from Mullins, which came in the years of 2017 and 2018.
His ammunition for next week’s meeting could see him surpass his three winners from last year, with horses such as Delta Work, Coko Beach, Gerri Colombe, Teahupoo, Irish Point, and Brighterdayshead all holding a leading chance for their intended targets.
It might be difficult for him to match his 2018 record of eight winners, but it is difficult not to see him have at least two or three, and that could be enough to see him finish runner-up in the Top Trainer Championship behind Mullins.
Top Trainer Tips for the Cheltenham Festival
While I respect Nicky Henderson’s intended runners, GORDON ELLIOTT looks like a reasonable bet in the w/o favourite market.
He will bring one of his strongest teams in recent years to Cheltenham next week, and despite Willie Mullins looking like he will be crowned the leading trainer again, he should have a good number of winners.
I suspect he will finish runner-up again but would still be a winning bet should Mullins prevail. His odds are skinny enough, but he is a confident choice.
