El Fabiolo heads a final field of eight for the Champion Chase.
16:00 Cheltenham
El Fabiolo is rated more than 60% likely to win the Champion Chase even at best odds through oddschecker. Architect Tips assesses the chances of the top five runners for Wednesday's feature race at the Cheltenham Festival.
Champion Chase Runners
El Fabiolo - 4/7
Last season’s Arkle winner is undoubtedly the most exciting two-mile chaser around. Rated 175, he has so far looked unbeatable over fences by winning all six of his starts and has four Grade 1 wins to his name, with plenty more to come.
He was too good for Jonbon at this meeting last year and is getting better and better with each start. I have no concerns with his jumping, and he ticks pretty much every box, so he’s a worthy favourite, and the only way I see him losing is if he fails to complete.
Jonbon - 4/1
A top-class horse, whose only defeats so far in his career have come at Cheltenham. The Tingle Creek winner did well to finish as close as he did last time out in the Clarence House Chase after a couple of bad mistakes, but we have to give credit to the winner.
He has to somehow reverse Arkle form with El Fabiolo, but he might be able to bridge the gap with a smooth round of jumping. If anything, though, I would be more concerned about his jumping than the favourite, and the latter would need to underperform to see him come out on top.
He needs to prove he can do it at the Cheltenham Festival, having found one too good at this meeting for the last two years behind Constitution Hill and El Fabiolo, but he lost little in defeat each time. Nevertheless, I suspect he might have to settle for minor honours again.
Edwardstone - 15/2
Former Arkle and Tingle Creek winner who had a winless campaign last season but went close in the Clarence House Chase last year and turned in a seriously impressive display in the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury last time out.
It consisted of relentless power and a great round of jumping under an aggressive ride. The interchange in tactics worked a treat, and if he can pull off a similar performance next week, he could be very difficult to overhaul.
He ran poorly in this race last year, finishing only fifth after being sent off as the second favourite, but we know the 10-year-old is better than that, and last time out was a major resurgence in form. He’s not without a chance.
Looking to boost your week with a freebie? Our Cheltenham Festival offers page has every bookmaker offer for the week listed right in front of you.
Captain Guinness - 12/1
Remains winless at the highest level but has placed numerous times, including in this race last year when second to Energumene.
The nine-year-old does have quite a bit to find with Jonbon and El Fabiolo, though, as he’s been behind both of those horses this year.
I’m not sure he will be able to produce an even better performance in this race than last year and break his duck in Grade 1 company.
Elixir De Nutz - 28/1
Not without an each-way chance! The 10-year-old produced a career-best performance in the Clarence House Chase when last spotted to defeat Jonbon in a thrilling finish here last time out.
The runner-up made a bad mistake, but so did this lad, yet he still rallied once headed to take the spoils under Freddie Gingell. Freddie has been a huge contributing factor in getting this horse to perform to his best this season, and the pair are undefeated when teaming up (three-from-three).
He might be taken on for the lead by Edwardstone on this occasion, but he will arrive into the race in the best shape possible, and he should give it his all. At a huge price, he could be the each-way value.
Champion Chase Tips & Prediction
El Fabiolo should win if he turns up at his best, but there is value elsewhere in the field, none more so than ELIXIR DE NUTZ (tipped at 25/1), who deserves more recognition than the market has given him on the back of his gutsy win in the Clarence House Chase.
The 10-year-old will be partnered by Freddie Gingell, who has three wins from three starts on him, and the pair have been in superb form this season. It will be difficult to see him beating the favourite, but he is in the form of his life; he jumps and gallops and must have excellent place claims. He is a very good horse.
Elixir De Nutz, 0.5 pts E/W, 25/1
EDWARDSTONE (tipped at 9/4 w/o El Fabiolo) is the other bet that has piqued my interest. Alan King’s multiple Grade 1-winning chaser looked back to something near his best when returning a wide-margin winner of the Game Spirit Chase last time out and has every chance of finishing in front of Jonbon, so he’s an attractive bet in this particular market.
