The flat turf season kicks off at Doncaster this weekend and Architect Tips has three fancies for the big race.
Lincoln Handicap
This weekend we welcome the start of Britain's 2024 Flat turf season, and the feature race is the historically competitive Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster, which is competed over a distance of a mile and provisionally set for 15.35pm.
Last year’s edition was won by David Menuisier’s Migration. He is seeking back-to-back wins in this year’s renewal, while the current market leader is Liberty Lane.
So who will emerge triumphant or exceed market expectations? Let’s assess a few of the leading runners along with a couple of interesting outsiders who might outrun their odds before deciding on a selection or two. Good luck.
Lincoln Handicap Runners
Awaal - 11/2
There’s plenty to like about this four-year-old’s chances. He is eligible to compete in this race from the same mark as when he finished second last year, and Harry Davies is booked to ride. In addition to his creditable placed effort in the race twelve months ago, he also made the frame when third in the Royal Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot and the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket.
Both of those performances came from a mark of 105 before going on to place in a Listed race at Carlisle. He was down the field in the Balmoral Handicap when last spotted, but there was a significant draw bias, given that eight of the first 10 home were all drawn in single figures. The two things that are off-putting are his price and knowing that a few others have beaten him multiple times.
Liberty Lane - 4/1
He is another of the leading contenders, and although he was well beaten in the Cambridgeshire Handicap at Newmarket last time out, his penultimate win over course and distance reads well. After winning on his debut at Nottingham, Karl Burke’s charge has been quite highly tried, and he has been gelded over the winter.
An initial mark of 97 is lenient, as he beat the 106-rated Sonny Liston, but I feel as though others might be better equipped. He won’t be hindered by conditions, but that effort last time out was rather disappointing, and his odds seem skinny enough for such a competitive race. He can be left alone on that basis.
Chazzesmee - 11/2
Tommy Stack’s only representative in the race, who is bidding for a famous double after winning the Irish Lincoln at the Curragh just five days ago. He is improving run-by-run and won’t be inconvenienced by the conditions, as he’s proven to be adaptable on heavy and good ground.
This is a tougher race than the one he contested the other day, but he might find the necessary improvement to run a big race. He is interesting for the Irish and shouldn’t be taken lightly, in spite of the quick turnaround. I think he holds a stronger chance than Liberty Lane, in my opinion.
Migration - 14/1
Last year’s winner.
The eight-year-old has to shoulder top weight, but he gets his ground and won this race a shade comfortably last year under similar conditions. He has been disappointing in three subsequent starts, but there’s no doubt his handler will have him in prime condition for a potential repeat success.
Paddy Bradley has been booked to ride, and he can take off an additional three pounds, so although he will need luck in-running, if he finds the gaps, he could be a major player. He has a good each-way chance.
Lattam - 10/1
Formerly trained by William Haggas. He won the Irish Lincoln last year and is only a pound higher than when he scored at Newcastle on the all-weather back in June.
This five-year-old has since been running well in defeat, including when he finished seventh in the Balmoral Handicap last time out. He probably has more to come over this distance, and soft ground will be in his favour, so he’s dangerous to rule out.
Johan - 12/1
This seven-year-old is tough and hardy and won this race two years ago at a big price. He added another valuable pot to his collection when he won the Golden Mile at Goodwood last term, and although he’s probably handicapped to the hilt now, he is a solid horse at this level.
He wasn’t discredited when he finished fifth in a Listed race when last spotted, and he has a pretty good record fresh. However, this will require a new personal best if he’s to become a dual winner of this vastly tough race, and conditions will not be in his favour. Besides this, I still rate his chances highly.
The Gatekeeper - 12/1
The winner of the Balmoral Handicap when last spotted, and despite having a shade of inconsistency by throwing in the odd stinker, he’s a capable sort. However, I have an inclination that he’s in the handicappers grip at present, and he’s four pounds higher than last time.
What bodes well for his chances, though, is his good record when fresh, which reads two wins from two starts. Both his trainer and jockey do extremely well in these events, so he’s not without a chance.
Thunder Ball - 20/1
This four-year-old improved throughout last season for connections and signed off last season with a career-best win at Goodwood on soft ground under today’s rider.
That form has worked out well to some extent given that the third, Grey’s Monument, has won since, but he was well beaten on his return last year. He might be out of his depth.
Vetiver - 20/1
Andrew Balding’s filly has won three of her seven starts and was last seen running a good race to finish fifth behind The Gatekeeper in the Balmoral Handicap.
She was well positioned, though, so further improvement is evidently required. She has been dealt a decent draw in stall nine, so that could be an advantage, but others might be better treated.
Parlando - 50/1
An interesting runner for Ian Williams, who is relatively unexposed. He was purchased from the Godolphin team for a large sum, and his form figures in the UK read 123332. He’s been in good form in Bahrain recently, which resulted in a victory last month.
He will need a lot more improvement if he’s to play a role in the outcome, but his handler could have found him an easier opportunity elsewhere, and a mark of 86 could be lenient. He could outrun his odds.
Lincoln Handicap Tips
As ever, this year’s Lincoln Handicap is an absolute minefield in terms of trying to identify the winner. However, I’ll take three darts at the race.
MIGRATION (best price 14/1) hasn’t been at his best the last three times, but the manner in which he cruised through the field and won this with plenty to spare last year was impressive, to say the least. He will love the ground, and he has a good jockey on his back again in the form of Paddy Bradley, who can claim three. With five places widely on offer, he is a standout each-way bet in his back-to-back bid.
2022 winner JOHAN (best price 12/1) might be seen to best effect on better ground, but he has a good record with Silvestre on his back, and his record when fresh makes him an appealing each-way proposition. He is a tough and genuine horse and will be up with the early pace from a handy middle-ish draw. With bookmakers paying five places, he also gets an interest.
LATTAM (best price 10/1) for the Julie Camacho team on stable debut is another I want on side in this quality renewal. He hasn’t had the races run to suit him the last three times, but the combination of a strong pace and testing ground will be right up his street. Last year’s Irish Lincoln winner has low mileage and must have a strong chance of defeating the market leaders, who are ridiculously underpriced.
