Architect’s best bets for Saturday at Newmarket, Goodwood and Thirsk.
14:05 Goodwood
Breege, 1.5pts WIN, 7/2
BREEGE (best price 7/2) has yet to score since her debut, but she has posted some creditable efforts in defeat, and this is a fine opportunity for her to get her season off to a flyer on her seasonal reappearance.
In her first season of racing, she made the frame in a pair of Group 3 races, including when runner-up here over seven furlongs, and was far from disgraced in a pair of Group 1 races, the Qatar Prix Marcel Boussac and the Irish 1,000 Guineas.
After that, she finished runner-up in the Sandringham at Royal Ascot prior to filling the same spot back at this course in a Group 3 contest. She then ran a remarkable race to finish a close-up fourth in a Listed race at Sandown.
Despite stumbling badly at a crucial stage in the race, she stayed on strongly in the closing stages to just miss out on third place and might have won otherwise. Her final start of the campaign saw her beat a head in this grade at Ascot.
This filly boasts the best form in the field, including two pieces of course form in which she’s finished runner-up in higher-graded races, and she won’t mind a spot of rain either. If Jason Hart can time his run, I have no doubt this filly is capable of beating this field.
14:55 Newmarket
Mitbaahy, 1.5pts WIN, 3/1
Charlie Hills trained the winner of the William Hill Palace House Stakes two years ago in the shape of Khaadem and has a good chance of doing it again, this time with MITBAAHY (best price 3/1).
This five-year-old improved massively in 2022 and signed off last term with an easy success in the Listed Queensferry Stakes at Chester. That form has subsequently worked out very well.
This three-time Listed winner even beat Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes winner Live In The Dream at Sandown a couple of seasons ago, so there’s no questioning that he’s a classy sprinter.
He made an eye-catching stable/seasonal debut here in the Group 3 Abernant Stakes, where he did best of those ridden off the pace when a fast-finishing fourth under Jamie Spencer.
He was only a length behind Spycatcher at the finish and will come on plenty for the run. He ran well on his second start last season, when he finished eighth in the Group 1 King’s Stand, and this is easier.
He is the top-rated runner in the field and will have a great pace to aim at, with a few of these likely to get on with it and force the issue from the start. I think his class will prove decisive.
14:40 Thirsk
Titan Rock, 0.5 pts E/W, 20/1, 5 places
In the Thirsk Hunt Cup, the one runner that appeals to me the most is the bottom-weight TITAN ROCK (best price 20/1), who represents the same connections that had Safe Voyage finish third in this race last year.
This six-year-old hasn’t been at his best the last two times, but he is generally consistent and finished second three times last year off a mark of 85, including over course and distance. He is a pound below his last winning mark and has defied an even higher mark in the past.
His second at Ayr last year, when splitting two horses rated 99 and 95, reads well, and that was coincidentally the last time he was seen on the turf. There’s no doubt he is well handicapped off 82 here. He has a lovely draw in stall five, will like the ground, has the course form, and should be spot on after spins on the all-weather.
This has probably been an early season target for him given his connections went close in this race last year, so in the hope he encounters a clear passage, I think he will run a big race. Most firms are offering five places.
16:30 Goodwood
Bill Silvers, 1pt WIN, 7/2
The Spring Cup Handicap at Newbury is one of the toughest early-season handicaps of the season. I was taken with the way BILL SILVERS (best price 7/2) conducted himself in defeat in fifth, and he gets the vote to gain a second career success.
He travelled extremely well throughout and did well to make the frame, given that the other four home were a bit away from where he was positioned. The handicapper has dropped his mark by a pound, and Harry Eustace has booked Hollie Doyle to ride.
The form of his win at Doncaster on his second start, when he defeated a subsequent winner who won off a mark of 93, looks good, and I don’t think this mark of 94 is the ceiling of his ability. The top-weight is fancied to strike in this smaller-field scenario.
16:45 Newmarket
Dapper Valley, 1pt E/W, 9/2
Shagraan was unlucky last time out when second and could gain compensation. However, preference is for DAPPER VALLEY (best price 4/1), who ran a cracker to finish third in a big-field handicap over course and distance on his reappearance.
Richard Hannon often does well at this meeting, and this unexposed three-year-old did extremely well to only go down narrowly in third here last time out in a slightly stronger race. He did most of the hard work out in front and kept on resolutely to the line, conceding lumps of weight to the first two home.
The handicapper has only put him up a couple of pounds, and he will be fitter. Ryan Moore is an excellent jockey booking, and with course form and that run under his belt, with more to come, I think his mount will take a lot of beating here.
17:15 Newmarket
Love Billy Boy, 0.5 pts E/W, 16/1, 4 places
Later on in the William Hill Keep Your Raceday Positive 'Confined' Handicap, Richard Hannon’s LOVE BILLY BOY (best price 16/1) must have solid each-way claims on the back of an encouraging return here two weeks ago.
This three-year-old has been highly tried since winning on his debut, including when he ran well to finish third in the Premier Yearling Stakes at York, which is a hot race of its kind. The way he kept on to finish eighth of 17 here on his handicap debut last time suggested he has more to offer in the handicap ranks.
The handicapper has dropped his mark a couple of pounds, and that latest race looked a stronger race than the one he will contest this time. His form is stacking up well, and he must be well handicapped off a mark of 81. He makes plenty of appeal, with various firms paying four places.
17:50 Newmarket
Carolus Magnus, 0.5 pts E/W, 10/1, 5 places
The final race at Newmarket today is the HKJC World Pool Handicap, and I really like the claims of CAROLUS MAGNUS (best price 10/1). He has a good record at the venue and could be ready to make a serious impact on his seasonal reappearance.
The last time he won was at this venue off a mark of 85, and he is five pounds lower now. He has run some huge races in defeat since, particularly in stronger company from higher marks towards the high 90s, and this is his optimum distance.
He’s much lower in the handicap than when he caught the eye to finish ninth in the Cambridgeshire here last September and has ultimately fallen to a career-low mark. The ground will suit him, and I can see him running a big race with various firms paying five places.
