Newmarket Tips Today: Sunday Best Bets from Architect

Carolina Reaper, 1pt E/W, 12/1

Despite being the most exposed runner in the Listed William Hill Pretty Polly Stakes, CAROLINA REAPER (best price 12/1) should be suited to the step up in distance and drops in grade following a couple of runs in Group 2 and Group 3 events the last two times. 

Charlie Johnston’s filly ran very well to finish sixth of 16 in last season’s Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot on just her second career start before returning a comfortable three-length winner on the July course. She travelled well on the front end and galloped home strongly to win with plenty to spare.

She’s not been able to replicate that performance in two starts, but she’s been competing in very good-quality Group races and is sure to find this beneficially easier. Based on ratings, she remains with a higher rating than the favourite Kalpana. With the three places on offer, I’m hopeful she runs well. 

Caenarfon, 1pt WIN, 6/1

In the Group 2 William Hill Dahlia Stakes, Running Lion goes for back-to-back wins, but I’m quite confident about the chances of CAENARFON (best price 6/1), who is ludicrously overpriced upon her season return. 

This four-year-old continued her progression last season by finishing fourth in the 1000 Guinness on this card twelve months ago before proving that effort to be no fluke when she finished third in the Epsom Oaks. 

Those two pieces of form are top-class when put into some context. Following on from those two great efforts, she was then beaten under three lengths when fifth in the Group 1 Nassau Stakes at Goodwood. 

She didn’t disgrace herself on her final start in her last campaign when she finished sixth at Salisbury, just two weeks after her Goodwood run, and has been freshened up since. 

This has been a long-term target, given that her fourth place in the 1000 Guineas last season was on her return. This is a huge drop in grade in comparison to that race, and if she’s able to stage a repeat, I think she will be hard to beat. 

Berkshire Rocco, 1pt E/W, 10/1, 4 places 

The Andrew Balding-trained BERKSHIRE ROCCO (best price 10/1) must have a decent each-way chance in the William Hill Handicap with conditions to suit. 

The seven-year-old could only finish 10th in this race last year, but he’s four pounds lower in the handicap and has a much lesser weight to carry this time around. 

He ran poorly at Salisbury when last spotted, but his penultimate fifth in the Ebor at York was excellent, and having been rated as high as 116 a few years ago, he remains well handicapped with a mark of 97. 

Andrew Balding has not burned him out with any runs this time ahead of this race by deliberately keeping him fresh, and I’m optimistic we will see a much better performance. 

With the cheekpieces reapplied and most bookmakers offering four places, he is an appealing project in this race. 

Torcello, 0.5 pts E/W, 25/1, 4 places 

The market has strangely overlooked last year’s second TORCELLO (best price 25/1), who was only headed in the final few strides and will have another crack at the race from only a two-pound higher mark.

This does look like a tougher race than last year, but he has continued his good form this year by winning at Pontefract on his return in gutsy fashion before he finished a very good third in a large-field handicap from a wide draw at Thirsk. 

He did very well to nearly steal this last year under an aggressive ride, and his handler has interestingly booked Silvestre De Sousa to ride, who does the low weight. This veteran cannot be ruled out by any means. Four places are on offer. 

Hot Fuss, 2pts WIN, 6/1

HOT FUSS (NAP) (best price 6/1) has to concede weight to the remainder in the HKJC Riding High Together Handicap, but I think he’s capable of doing so based on the form he’s shown to date and will be fitter from his eye-catching comeback run at Bath.

This three-year-old outran his odds to finish fifth in the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot last season on his second ever start and was highly tried in Listed/Group races later into the campaign after gaining a breakthrough win at Salisbury. 

His penultimate second at Bath, when only beaten half-a-length by Dallas Star, is the best form on offer. The winner subsequently bolted up in a Group 3 race in Ireland, and Tom Dascombe’s charge was conceding six pounds to the winner in their battle. 

He will face no opponent of that calibre in this field, and he should be able to get a good position early on in the race. This longer trip should bring about further improvement, and, with his fitness assured, he’s a big player in the finale.