ITV Racing Tips: Saturday Double for July Cup Day at Newmarket

Liveandletlive, 0.5 pts E/W, 8/1, 4 places 

LIVEANDLETLIVE (best price 8/1) has shown distinct improvement since going handicapping on the turf, winning both starts, and having beaten a pair of subsequent winners at Haydock last time out. This son of Muhaarar must have every chance of completing the hat-trick.

He followed up his easy Nottingham success to double his tally when seeing off Crown Estate and Christian David at Haydock last time out. I thought his performance was worth a major upgrade given that he had no cover on the flank of the field but travelled sweetly throughout.

Despite being headed over a furlong from the finish, he immediately responded to his riders urgings and scored quite comfortably. The second and third have subsequently emerged as next-time-out winners off marks of 87 and 84. He is up in grade but deserves respect and appeals most. 
Take advantage of the four places available.

Epic Poet, 0.5 pts E/W, 8/1, 5 places 

A Listed winner in France, with form figures in that region reading 1131322, EPIC POET (best price 8/1) has taken a while to get the hang of things in the UK. 

However, he arrives on the back of a superb runner-up effort in the Duke Of Edinburgh at Royal Ascot on just his second start for David O’Meara and is fancied to go very well off the same mark of 97. 

Considering how far back he was in that race, the ground he covered in the home straight was nothing short of incredible, only finding Crystal Black too strong, who had first run on him. He was evidently well suited to a strong pace, and he’s likely to get that again here.

That latest outing was just his second start for this stable, and there’s plenty of room for improvement in the handicap ranks. The five-year-old will have no issue with the high draw, given he’s likely to be held up before coming with a late charge. 

He shaped very well when flying late to finish sixth of 16 over C&D in his penultimate outing, and his unexposed profile screams a potential winner of this valuable pot. 

Five places are widely available and advised.

Heritage House, 0.5 pts E/W, 8/1

HERITAGE HOUSE (best price 8/1) has yet to succeed in seven subsequent starts since winning a nursery at Leicester. However, she’s performed well on various occasions at a higher level and should be able to make a good fist of it on her handicap debut under Sean Levey.

James Fanshawe’s filly has already outrun her odds three times at Newmarket in Listed/Group 3 company and once again made the frame at huge odds when finishing third in a Listed race at Carlisle last time out. I can see her being very competitive, with four places on offer. 

Hard To Resist, 0.5 pts E/W, 8/1 

HARD TO RESIST (best price 8/1) is another one I want to keep on hand, having warmed up for this with a spin in the Sandringham on her seasonal reappearance. I know she was well held, but that was her first start in nearly eight months, and it could be a statement of intent with Ryan Moore booked to ride. 

A winner over C&D on her second career start, she then finished close-up third in a Group 3 at Goodwood behind two horses now rated 109 before filling fourth in a pair of Group 2s at Doncaster and Chantilly. With that latest run under her belt, it would be no surprise to see her heavily involved.

Rogue Lightning, 1pt E/W, 5/1

ROGUE LIGHTNING (best price 5/1) won three on the bounce last year before an extremely unfortunate fifth-place finish in the Group 1 Abbaye in France, where he would have won without being denied a clear run multiple times. 

He’s been the subject of heavy defeats in both starts this season in the Temple Stakes and King Charles, but excuses can be made as he needed his return and then had no cover last time out having blown the start. 

He will appreciate the drop in grade with conditions to suit, and Danny Tudhope is reunited with him for the first time since the pair scored at this level back in September. I have no doubt he’s more than capable of beating these, should things go his way.

Tashkhan, 0.5 pts E/W, 11/1

I was close to nominating Deauville Legend for the third time this season, but even though he’s beaten Al Qareem in the past and would have leading claims if he were able to get back to the form that saw him finish fourth in a Melbourne Cup. His latest finishing efforts, though, have been a little off-putting, so I’ll cautiously leave him alone this time. 

Preference is for Brian Ellison’s TASHKHAN (best price 11/1), who boasts solid course form, with his record here in Group Company reading figures of 343, including a close-up third in this twelve months ago. He was down the field in the Northumberland Plate last time, but it seems as though his connections were using that as a preparatory run ahead of this contest. 

The six-year-old doesn’t win that often, but he’s largely consistent and performed admirably well to make the frame in last year’s Cesarewitch and Prix Royal-Oak. He is a classy horse and might be allowed to dictate matters. Moreover, he is the second-highest-rated horse in the field and will strip fitter from last month’s return. He is overpriced.

Carrytheone, 1pt WIN, 9/2

The Bunbury Cup will see 20 runners go to post and looks competitive, but CARRYTHEONE (best price 9/2), who caught most of people’s attention when a strong-finishing third in the Buckingham Palace last time out, could gain compensation off an unchanged mark. 

Michael Bell’s seven-year-old edged out Gorak in a big-field handicap on the Rowley course here in May but did remarkably well considering he had the door slammed in his face when just about to take off. Still, he picked up again and won, going away at the finish. 

Last seen at Royal Ascot, the winner English Oak had a dream passage and won nicely, but Michael’s representative was denied a clear run on multiple occasions down the stands rail, but once he found daylight (when the race was practically over), he hit the line ever so strongly to be nearest the finish. 

Surprisingly, the assessor has left his mark unchanged, and Ryan Moore takes over in the saddle. Last year he was competing in Group/Listed races in Ireland, and there’s no doubt he would have gone up in the handicap with a clear run last time out. He’s a serious player.

Mostabshir, 0.5 pts E/W, 12/1, 5 places

My second selection in the Bunbury Cup is John and Thady Gosden’s MOSTABSHIR (best price 12/1), who remains open to improvement after just 10 starts. He caught the eye with an excellent fourth-place finish (Carrytheone third) in the Buckingham Palace and appeals as the sort of horse who can advance his form here. 

I liked the way he travelled into the race, and although he couldn’t sustain his position towards the finish, the handicapper has left his mark unchanged as well. He will relish the strong pace, and Jim Crowley is a powerhouse in big-field handicaps. Despite his big weight, he’s worthy of serious interest, with five places widely on offer.

Finn’s Charm, 0.5 pts E/W, 33/1, 5 places 

FINN’S CHARM (best price 33/1) is one-dimensional, meaning he either runs well or runs a stinker, but Charlie Johnston’s charge performed to his absolute best when routing his rivals at Goodwood on his penultimate start and would have claims if he can do a similar job here.

This is far more competitive, and he needs to be forgiven for his latest no-show in the Buckingham Palace, but he remains quite well-treated, and connections have booked Billy Loughnane to do the steering. He is due to go up 6Ib, so from a handy draw in stall 15, he could easily exceed market odds. 

Five places are widely available and advised.