ITV Racing Tips: Saturday double for King George Day at Ascot

Sirona, 1pt WIN, 11/2

There are plenty to consider in the Group 3 Longines Valiant Stakes, but I quite like the prospects of David Menuisier’s SIRONA (best price 11/2), who ought to find this easier than when fifth in the Falmouth Stakes last time out.

This filly was useful when trained by Charlie Johnston last year but has raised her game in her new surroundings by placing in her first two starts this year at this level. She was narrowly denied at Lingfield when third, before only finding Tiber Flow too strong at Haydock on her penultimate start. 

I don’t think she was helped by racing on the far side of the track that day, so her effort can be marked up. She subsequently proved no match for Porta Fortuna in a Group 1 at Newmarket but performed with credit to finish fifth and might have even finished second without blowing the start. 

Considering she was conceding the second and fourth 9lb and was only out of the places by a whisker, I thought that was a cracking run in defeat. The drop in trip to 7f is her optimum trip, though, with her form figures over this distance reading 12132.

This is a significant drop in grade from last time, and Oisin Murphy, who rode her to finish a creditable second at Haydock, is back in the saddle. With a clutch of positives regarding this four-year-old’s credentials, I make her one of the best bets of the day. 

Alflaila, 1pt WIN, 9/4

In the Group 2 Sky Bet York Stakes, I really like the chances of ALFLAILA (best price 9/4) to take advantage of the 3lb he will receive from Passenger and win this for the second year in succession.

Last year’s winner shaped very well to finish fourth behind Auguste Rodin in the Group 1 Prince of Wales' Stakes on last month’s return and will relish the return to his favourite course.

He’s had three starts here, winning twice and finishing second in the other. Jim Crowley gets along very well with him, and Owen Burrows' five-year-old is the highest-rated runner in the field. 

Mandurah, 1pt WIN, 4/1

Ollie Sangster’s Simmering went very close to winning the Albany Stakes last time out and is respected, but she may prove vulnerable to another potentially above-average filly in the shape of MANDURAH (best price 4/1). 

This daughter of Kingman made an impressive winning debut at Newmarket last month, where she travelled very sweetly throughout despite having no cover before showing an injection burst of speed to pull clear of her rivals inside the final furlong. 

Given she had the race in safekeeping, she was allowed to be eased down in the closing stages, and although the form has not worked out particularly well, she was value for more than the half-length winning margin indicated.

She is open to plenty more improvement and is clearly well thought of, as she holds an entry in the Group 2 Sky Bet Lowther Stakes. Harry Davies retains the ride, and she is connections’ only runner on the card, too. I like her chances.

Zarzyni, 0.5 pts E/W, 12/1, 5 places

The Sky Bet 'Jump Jockeys' Nunthorpe' Handicap is completely wide-open, but a chance is taken on ZARZYNI (best price 12/1) who was rated as high as 104 two years ago and can hopefully make a serious impact under the services of Sean Bowen. 

This seven-year-old has consequently spent a long time in the doldrums with no success for more than two years, but he’s largely been performing well in quality handicaps off higher marks and is a fully 19lb lower than when last successful. 

Even though he was well held at Hamilton last time out, he’s still managed to finish runner-up three times this year and remains on a career-low mark of 80. As well as being well-handicapped, the fast ground will also see him to good effect. 

His handler reaches for the reapplied cheekpieces, and with lots of pace bound to be on the offering, this could be set up for a closer, such as himself, who likes to be delivered late. I’ll be disappointed if he can’t figure prominently here. 

Five places are generally available and recommended.

Bergerac, 0.5 pts E/W, 7/1, 4 places

Missing the break failed to stop the Kevin Ryan-trained BERGERAC (best price 7/1) capitalising on a reduced mark when scoring comfortably at Newcastle last month, and given his past exploits, there’s every chance this assured six-year-old will add another C&D success. 

This dual-course winner landed a valuable pot here two years ago over 5f, and that victory came off a mark of 93. Even after winning at Newcastle last time out, his 4lb higher mark still leaves him 1lb lower than the similar-graded race he last won on the Knavesmire.

He’s very nicely weighted and is drawn reasonably in stall five. This is obviously tougher than last time, but he’s only one of two runners in the field that arrives on the back of a win, and I like him, each-way, with four places widely on offer. 

Dapper Valley, 0.5 pts E/W, 14/1, 4 places 

DAPPER VALLEY (best price 14/1) hasn’t been seen to the best of effect in his latest two starts and should be viewed on his previous pair of placed efforts, which certainly gives him a chance to at least fill the frame. 

Richard Hannon’s charge was highly tried in a pair of Listed races after winning his debut at Sandown, and despite not making a fist of it in each of those, there was lots of encouragement from his handicap debut third at Goodwood.

In that race, he finished only a neck behind recent Listed winner Starlust, so the form has substance. He then duplicated that showing when filling the same place (third) at Newmarket off a mark of 92 on his seasonal reappearance. 

As a result of not firing in two subsequent starts, his mark has eased 1lb, which is now lower than the latest of those in-the-frame efforts. Not only that, but the excellent Alex Volkhansky can take off a further 3lb to help the low-weight concession. 

This three-year-old needs a strong pace to be seen at his best, and this race should give him the opportunity to track the likely pacesetters before unleashing a late surge. If this does go according to plan, I’m pretty sure he will do a lot better than his recent efforts have implied. 
Four places.

Billyjoh, 0.5 pts E/W, 11/1, 5 places 

The Moet & Chandon International Stakes looks extremely competitive. However, I’m playing three against the field, the first one being BILLYJOH (best price 11/1) who must enter calculations off only a 2lb higher mark than when second in the Buckingham Palace. 

Mick Appleby’s consistent four-year-old secured back-to-back wins on the all-weather earlier this year and has held his form well in defeat since, especially recently, finishing runner-up in three of his last four starts. 

His latest run over C&D saw him only find English Oak too good, and if you take the winner out of the contest, he would have been a very good winner himself. Carrytheone was unlucky in-running, but the selection came as far back as the third did and is only 2 lb higher. 

Rossa Ryan takes the ride this time, and he’s drawn very well in stall 15. The Buckingham Palace has often been a good guide for this contest, so with various firms paying the five places, it would come as a surprise to see him out of the mix.

Summerghand, 0.5 pts E/W, 25/1, 5 places 

SUMMERGHAND (best price 25/1) proved he’s no back number despite his age to finish a solid third in the Bunbury Cup when last spotted and must be considered a player off a 2lb lower mark with Tom Marquand required to ride.

David O’Meara’s ten-year-old is down to a joint-career low mark and has run well several times at this course over the years. He needs plenty to fall right for him, but when he’s good, he’s more than capable of making his presence felt. He appeals with five places that are variously available.

New Image, 0.5 pts E/W, 8/1, 5 places

David O’Meara has another serious player in the form of NEW IMAGE (best price 8/1), who is progressing at a rate of knots having won three of his last six starts and should still be ahead of the assessor to run well with five places on offer. 

This four-year-old was very unlucky at Thirsk when repeatedly denied a clear run before powering on to finish a close-up fourth, but resumed winning ways at Musselburgh next time and was again unlucky at York last month. 

The way he stayed on strongly to finish a close third suggested a 1lb rise is more than lenient. I can see this race really suiting, as well as the stiff finish. With the potential for more to come, he must have a great chance.