Goodwood Tips: Thursday Best Bets for Day 3 at Glorious Goodwood

Palace Green, 0.5 pts E/W, 5/1, 4 places

This race tends to be won by an improving, well-handicapped youngster. The last two winners of this, Warren Point and Royal Rhyme, developed into Group 3 winners rated in the high 100s, and I cannot help but feel PALACE GREEN (best price 5/1) might emerge himself into that category and he appeals most. 

Following a gelding operation, Richard Hughes’ showed much improved form when off the mark at Kempton on the all-weather in April, scoring by five lengths under a positive ride. However, he’s been conversely ridden cold in both handicap starts and shaped nicely in each of them.

He followed up his third at York’s Dante meeting (strong form) with a sixth-place finish in the Golden Gates at Royal Ascot. There’s no doubt, though, that he would have finished in the frame without being badly hampered twice when attempting to barge his way through a few runners.

The handicapper, however, has left his mark unchanged on 90, and Oisin Murphy maintains the ride. He’s drawn well in stall 7 and has more to offer on just his third handicap start, so providing a better passage can fruition, he looks poised to be in the shake-up with four places generally on offer.

Billboard Star, 0.5 pts E/W, 11/2

The Strikin Viking could be hard to beat having finished second in the Railway Stakes last time out, but he does seem short enough, and from a value stance, BILLBOARD STAR (best price 11/2) shouldn’t be underestimated. 

Eve Johnston Houghton’s candidate improved from his debut third to open his account in good style at Newmarket and then performed very well when a keeping-on second in a Group 2 last time out. 

He proved no match for Whistlejacket but was comfortably ahead of Aomori City, who was an impressive winner of the Group 2 Vintage Stakes at this meeting earlier in the week. 

If anything, Billboard Star’s form is just as strong as what the favourite has achieved. This course should play to his strengths more, as it favours the speedy types, and he’s certainly not short on speed. 
He has more to come and looks like a very attractive choice. 

Emily Upjohn, 1.5pts WIN, 11/4

John and Thady Gosden’s EMILY UPJOHN (best price 11/4) will have to concede 8lb to Opera Singer if she’s going to land a third Group 1 win of her career, but I’m confident she can do so with plenty in her favour.

This high-class mare returned to something near her best when a half-length second to Bluestocking in the Pretty Polly Stakes last time out and probably should have won that race had she not been committed to winning her race a long way from the winning post. 

Even though she was beaten, that was a cracking performance on ground that wasn’t her optimum. The winner has subsequently franked the form with a second-place finish in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes earlier this week. 

I don’t necessarily think the outside draw in stall 10 is a bad thing, as it should allow Kieran Shoemark to drop her in and get her settled. It’s hard to forget her huge effort in defeat when she finished a half-length second to Paddington in the Coral-Eclipse.

She was conceding the winner 8lb and that is the best form by a long stretch here. Her form over this trip reads 1122, and she will relish the faster ground. Her connections won this two years ago with Nashwa, and I’m hopeful she can follow suit because she’s the best horse in the field. 

Brighton Boy, 0.5 pts E/W, 11/2, 5 places 

The draw could have been kinder to BRIGHTON BOY (best price 11/2), who is drawn in 16, but regardless of that, Andrew Balding’s charge is progressing at a rate of knots and could be very difficult to stop on the back of a demolition job at Chester.

In his penultimate start, he pushed subsequent Super Sprint winner Caburn to within a neck when second at Salisbury, and that form has already begun to work out quite well. Surely he’s better than a rating of 82 based on form lines?

The step up in trip should unlock improvement based on his strong finishing efforts, and getting 8lb from El Burhan makes him a definite contender. He is a solid betting proposition, with various firms paying five places. I cannot see him out of the frame. 

Unbreak My Heart, 0.5 pts E/W, 14/1, 5 places

Clive Cox won this race two years ago and has a good chance of winning it again with top-weight UNBREAK MY HEART (best price 14/1), who is a fascinating handicap debutant having almost exclusively competed in better races. 

Since winning at Bath on her second career start, this filly has been highly tried in various pattern-class events, including when third in a hot Group 3 race at Newmarket last year. I find it interesting to see her reunited with Jim Crowley here. 

He partnered her when she finished a close-up fourth in a Listed race at Sandown two starts ago, and an opening mark of 95 does seem quite lenient given the evidence of her overall form in better-quality events. 

In fact, she would have gone close to winning at Sandown with a clear run, and she wasn’t beaten far in a competitive Group 3 last time out. With five places widely on offer and advised, she rates one of the best each-way plays on the card. 

Qirat, 0.5 pts E/W, 6/1, 5 places

The Ralph Beckett-trained QIRAT (best price 6/1) should be a clear favourite in my opinion, based on the fact that he beat a host of subsequent winners in a stronger C&D race on his return in May on handicap debut and is only 4lb higher back here.

In that higher-class race he won at this course, he beat Al Shabab Storm, Blue Prince and Validated, who have all won recently. He’s run with credit in two equally hot handicaps since, including when sixth in the Britannia at Royal Ascot.

Although he returned as a beaten favourite at Newmarket last time, he wasn’t beaten far in fifth. This is easier, and despite being drawn wide, the combination of his course form and ability makes him hard to oppose. Five places are advised.