Architect Tips provides his runners guide for Saturday's Breeders' Cup Classic at Del Mar.
21:41 Del Mar
This will be the third time that the Breeders’ Cup meeting will be held at Del Mar, and the big question is whether City Of Troy will produce his best in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
It’s been 22 years since Aidan O’Brien last got close to winning the feature when Giant’s Causeway was narrowly denied by Tiznow, but this will probably be the best chance he’s ever had since that narrow miss.
Will City Of Troy be the horse to finally do it for the Ballydoyle maestro, or will something lurking in his opposition break the hearts of connections? Let’s take a look at the Classic field with a full runner guide.
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Breeders' Cup Classic Runners Guide
Forever Young (No 1) - 11/2
Japanese battle-hardened raider, who has won six of his seven starts, and it was to his credit they finished a nose-third in the Kentucky Derby on his penultimate start when virtually upsides Sierra Leone, having completely blown the start and been badly hampered during the early carnage.
He gained a confidence-booster victory in a warmup but a minor event last time out and has been primed for the contest. If he’s within striking distance on the turn for home, he will be finishing his race off with a rattle, and that could see him pick up the pieces to succeed. He’s talented and interesting.
Highland Falls (No 2) - 16/1
An extremely solid Godolphin team member with five wins from nine starts and has only finished out of the frame once.
This son of the mighty Curlin cruised to success in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes last time out, and while another step forward will be needed to succeed, he’s not without each-way hope at large odds.
City Of Troy (No 3) - 15/8f
This top-class Epsom Derby winner has the weight of Ireland and the UK racing on his back as he bids to finally deliver Ballydoyle a famous win in the vastly rich contest. By far the most talented horse in the field, with four Group 1 wins under his belt, and the fact that his handler has described him as the best he’s ever trained is worth noting.
That is a massive statement considering all of the greats he has trained and his contender has been allotted a lovely draw in stall three. His breeding suggests he should be fine on the surface, and his form reads well. A few of his handler’s runners have bombed out in the past when fancied, though, so that’s always in the back of my mind.
Mixto (No 4) - 100/1
Returned a surprise winner of the Grade 1 Pacific Classic over this track and distance, but this is so much tougher, and I doubt lightning will strike twice with him at huge odds. Others are preferred.
Senor Buscador (No 5) - 50/1
An excellent servant for connections with more than $12 million prize money to his name. He followed up his Grade 1 Saudi Cup success with a third-place finish in the Dubai World Cup earlier this year. However, he’s been very flat in two runs since, and it’s impossible to fancy him on that evidence. Likely to struggle.
Derma Sotogake (No 6) - 33/1
Runner-up in this race twelve months ago but hasn’t been in the same form in three starts since, so he will do well to match last year’s effort, with others holding stronger claims. He should be thereabouts, but expect a few others to prove too strong when it matters most.
Ushba Tesoro (No 7) - 14/1
Another Japanese representative, who could only finish fifth in this race last year, but he doesn’t fall short on consistency and arrives in good fettle and finished runner-up in the Dubai World Cup. However, he won’t afford to miss the break, as he often can, so it is probably wise to look elsewhere.
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Pyreness (No 8) - 66/1
Has shown gradual improvement this year with back-to-back runner-up efforts in Grade 1 company, but has work to do in order to reverse latest form with Highland Falls. Likely to fall short of the required performance to win this contest, and others have stronger claims.
Fierceness (No 9) - 4/1
A winner of five of his eight starts and battled to victory in the Grade 1 Travers Stakes last time out, but this is a completely different ball game, and a place is probably the best he can hope for in my honest assessment of his chances.
Tapit Trace (No 10) - 40/1
Won his first four starts, including a Grade 1 contest, but didn’t really kick on in his next four starts. However, he’s won two of his last three outing and has already beaten Highland Falls, which gives him a place chance.
He couldn’t be in better form, but again, he’s another with major improvement needed if he’s to come out on top.
Sierra Leone (No 11) - 12/1
An extremely consistent type, with three wins and five placed efforts from eight starts. He was marginally in front of Forever Young when runner-up in the Kentucky Derby earlier this year, too, as he may have won that race in another stride and did well to finish as close as he did considering his unfavourable track position.
Even though he’s returned as a beaten favourite on his last three starts, he’s had excuses in each of them but has emerged with credit, and a repeat of his Kentucky Derby second at Churchill Downs would no doubt see him make the frame at least. I think he’s overpriced and has the capabilities to win this if he puts it all together.
Arthur’s Ride (No 12) - 25/1
This Grade 1 winner posted back-to-back good speed figures between June and August but could only manage fifth in the Jockey Club Gold Cup last time out.
He’s been freshened up since, though, and his early speed will prove vital around this track, so he could easily outrun his odds, especially with the likelihood of being allowed a soft lead due to nothing else being quick enough to lay up with him in the early stages.
Newgate (No 13) - 33/1
Marginally bagged a Grade 1 contest at Santa Anita in March, but that wasn’t the strongest of events, and while his latest close-up third in the California Crown Stakes wouldn’t be good enough to trouble the main protagonists here. I’ll be surprised if he’s capable of beating a field of this calibre.
Next (No 14) - 33/1
Despite being one of the outsiders of the field, this six-year-old has been in serious form this year, winning his last seven starts and has been battering his rivals in doing so. However, this will be by far the deepest race he’s ever contested and I doubt he’s good enough.
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Breeders’ Cup Classic Odds
| Horse | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| City Of Troy | 15/8 | 35% |
| Fierceness | 7/2 | 22% |
| Forever Young | 5/1 | 17% |
| Sierra Leone | 11/1 | 8% |
| Highland Falls | 16/1 | 6% |
Breeders’ Cup Classic 2024 Tips
This isn’t the strongest of renewals, and all eyes will be on City Of Troy. He has been trained specifically for this contest and has leading claims from a form perspective.
However, he will do well to beat a couple of consistent types who are proven on the dirt, including FOREVER YOUNG (best price 11/2), who has won all but one of his seven starts and has a strong finishing kick, which should stand him in good stead.
He warmed up for this with a comfortable victory in his home country last time out, and although he’s been handed the inside berth, he will keep digging deep to the very end, and that may be enough to see him be rewarded with his biggest pay cheque.
SIERRA LEONE (best price 12/1) is closely matched with Forever Young, and his form is rock solid. He’s had near-misses in many top-quality events, but I suspect he’s saving himself for an even bigger performance, especially when everything clicks, and this could be the time he does that.
He’s never been out of the first three and is a son of Gun Runner, who won this race seven years ago, so this race should be right up his street. I’m surprised he’s not at least half his current odds based on his formlines, so I’ll take a swing on him at double-digits.
