Architect picks his winner in Saturday's Grade 1 Clarence House Chase at Ascot.
Clarence House Chase
This weekend’s Clarence House Chase at Ascot might have only attracted four participants, but it’s nothing short of quality over quantity with Champion Chase favourite Jonbon and dual Champion Chase winner Energumene featuring in the field.
Let’s take a closer look at those who remain in contention for Saturday’s feature race before identifying the potential winner!
Clarence House Chase Runners
We start with the correct betting favourite in Jonbon.
Nicky Henderson’s top-class chaser has won 16 of his 19 starts. Although he’s yet to win at the Cheltenham Festival, the nine-year-old is evidently at the peak of his powers based on how impressively he has won both starts this season.
It wasn’t the strongest renewal of the Tingle Creek we have seen, but this multiple Grade 1 winner slammed his rivals by eight lengths.
This will be his first run at the Berkshire venue since winning a Grade 2 hurdle race in December of 2021, but he’s clearly well suited to the course, and it’s hard to knock a horse who has an impressive win strike rate.
He’s a short-priced favourite, but he’s entitled to be, and the RPR he produced last time out suggested it was a career-best performance. The one to beat.
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Energumene is the obvious danger to Jonbon.
The 2022 runner-up has won 11 of his 13 chase starts and has been well placed to win the Champion Chase twice. Official ratings have him just 1lb short of Jonbon, and if he can reproduce his brilliant best form, then he has every chance of beating the favourite.
He produced two exceptional RPRs in winning at the Cheltenham Festival twice, including when narrowly denied by Shishkin in this race two years ago.
However, he has only been seen once since winning Punchestown’s Champion Chase in April of 2023, and despite making a winning return at Cork last month, I presume a new personal best will be needed this weekend.
If anything, he will need to match his effort behind Shishkin to succeed, but he’s not getting any younger, and that was three years ago. As an 11-year-old, he is vulnerable, but Willie Mullins isn’t hiding, and for that he is worth respect, let alone the horse’s achievements.
The form of his return win in the Hilly Way (third win in the contest) has worked out very well, though, with Banbridge (unseated at the last fence when in second) winning the King George.
This horse has long been one of my favourite horses in training, and if he is able to come out on top this weekend, I will be over the moon. It’s difficult to separate the top two in the market, so I will come back to a final verdict and hopefully nominate one of the two.
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Edwardstone and Boothill complete the field.
They are good horses but both of them will need to somehow produce career-best performances to even lay a glove on the other two, though Alan King’s charge did finish a place in front of Energumene in this race two years ago when it was staged at Cheltenham.
That being said, he’s fallen in two of his last five starts and couldn’t get past Soul Icon last time out, so he is evidently vulnerable up against tougher opposition. Boothill looks short of this grade and has hit the canvas in three of his last five outings. He has plenty to prove in this class and cannot be fancied.
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Clarence House Chase Tips - The Verdict
If the race can live up to its expected power, we should be in for a real treat.
JONBON was narrowly touched off in last year’s renewal when the race was run at Cheltenham, but he’s a stronger horse now, and looking at the trends, he is the one that ticks pretty much every box.
Energumene will give him a race, but age is against him, and there’s only ever been one 11-year-old to have won the race, dating back to 1990.
I feel as though the younger legs of Nicky Henderson’s charge will see him find a way to take this prize. No stakes are advised, but the likely winner is Jonbon.
