Architect Tips provides his best bets for Saturday's ITV races.
13:35 Bangor on Dee
The combination of the drop in class and trip can see THUNDER ROCK (best price 9/2) get back on the scoresheet in the opener at Bangor.
Lewis Saunders can take off 7lb and boasts an excellent strike rate when teaming up with Olly Murphy. The ground will suit him and his overall record in this grade or lower on good ground reads five wins from five starts.
His last four starts have been in either Grade 1 or 2 company, so being eased in grade, with plenty of other contributing factors taken into account, he can stamp his class on today’s field.
14:05 Newbury
KALIUM (best price 22/1) went from looking the likeliest winner last time out to weakening out of the places to finish fifth, but I’m convinced he’s better then that considering he was heavily punted before the off and is fancied to resume his progress here.
Perhaps the ground was softer than ideal, so being back on a sounder surface should be much better and his record on this sort of ground reads two wins and a second. At double-figure odds, this three-time winner shouldn’t be discounted.
14:40 Newbury
It was around this time last year THEATRE MAN (best price 6/1) was sent off as the favourite for the Plate at the Cheltenham Festival, and although he’s not looked the same since he fell in that contest, he’s handicapped to run a huge race here.
The nine-year-old is 5lb lower in the handicap and has shown up well for a long way in his two starts this season. His second to Ginny’s Destiny off a 2lb higher mark reads well, and he’s back on the same mark as when runner-up the last time he competed here.
He’s undergone wind surgery since last seen and his latest fourth has received multiple boosts since, especially by the third, Jagwar, who won the Plate! If the recent breathing operation has ironed out any chinks, then he could be a serious player.
15:00 Kelso
GREEN SKY was well held on her return from a small break at Newcastle, but she has some strong place form to her name in this sphere, and could pose a threat in the double green under JJ Slevin.
Her penultimate third in a large-field maiden looks decent and she would have beaten 120+ rated rivals at Bellewstown last April without falling at the second last.
Her third to Wodhooh in a Listed race at Doncaster last January is good form as the winner was last seen bolting up in the Martin Pipe at the Cheltenham Festival.
This mare looks very well handicapped off a mark of 113 and it’s worth noting that she would have likely beaten last year’s winner of this race, Mack The Man, in November at Ayr when staying on to finish fourth, having made a bad mistake two out.
If she can put it all together in the jumping department, she’s certainly in with a shout on these terms. Most bookmakers have priced her up at generous odds.
15:15 Newbury
This Grade 2 event has attracted a very good field, and the one I like is handicap debutant, ROCKSTOWN GIRL (best price 12/1).
She has always exceeded market expectations when tried at a high level and was running a blinder in a Grade 2 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham before she fell three out.
She had just got level with Potters Charm when she tumbled and while it was hard to imagine whether she would have won, the way she was building up a head of steam suggested she would have acquired herself very well in defeat.
She wasn’t at her best back on home spoil when last seen, but she looks well handicapped off a mark of 121, and that’s without Oakley Brown’s 5lb claim. She should have plenty more to offer and can play a part in the finish.
