Jibber Jabber's Thursday Royal Ascot Tips & Betting Preview

For full transparency, I think the head of the market looks strong, particularly Sing Us A Song (4/1) and Merchant (5/2), who both have clear winning chances. If this were a regular midweek race, I might well have left it alone.

But this is Royal Ascot, and we're here to find horses at bigger prices with each-way potential — so that’s exactly what I’ve looked to do.

The one I’ve landed on is the unexposed THE CURSOR, who is in excellent hands with the in-form Andrew Balding yard (Last 14 days: 17-70, 24%).

He runs off a mark of 87, based on his neck second to Bedouin Prince back in March. That rival has since won again and is now rated 102, so the form has substance. The Cursor was well beaten in Listed company at Epsom next time out, but he may not have handled the track’s unique demands.

He’s been freshened up for 58 days, returns to handicap company off a workable mark, and looks like he’ll benefit from this step up to 1m4f.

As a lightly raced 3-year-old, there should be more to come — and if things fall right, he could get back on track and outrun his odds.

The Cursor 33/1 (0.5pt ew)

John & Thady Gosden and Aidan O’Brien have dominated this race, winning 8 of the last 9 runnings, and they’re responsible for 6 of the 11 runners today. I’m hoping I’ve sided with the right team by backing one from the in-form Gosden yard (Last 14 days: 10-37, 27%), who’ve already had 4 winners at Royal Ascot across the first two days — hitting peak form at just the right time.

Of their three runners, I’ve landed on GO GO BOOTS, with William Buick booked for the first time.

Her running-on 3rd of 6 in the Musidora at York (1m2.5f, Good to Firm) looks decent form now — with Whirl, who finished just in front of her, going on to be narrowly beaten in the Group 1 Oaks at Epsom 13 days ago.

In that York race, GO GO BOOTS finished right alongside today’s 3/1 shot Serenity Prayer, and may have just paid the price for trying to go with the winner too early. In truth, there was very little between them — so the 10/1 vs 3/1 pricing today looks a bit lopsided, especially as both are bred to relish the step up to 1m4f.

Thady Gosden says in today's Racing Post:

“Go Go Boots didn't have a hard race in the Oaks where the easy ground didn’t suit. She’s come out of it in very good form, and the trip and ground should play to her strengths.”

First-time blinkers, Buick taking over, extra distance, and quicker ground are all potential sources of improvement — so I’m hopeful of a big run in a competitive affair.

She’s widely available at 10/1 with 3 places, though Sky Bet are paying 4, so they’re the obvious choice if you can get on.

Go Go Boots 11/1 (0.5pt ew)

We’ve got a typically wide-open Britannia Stakes handicap here, with just 9lb covering all 30 runners. It’s a big-field lottery where, no matter what you back, you’ll need luck in running.

To make things trickier, most major firms are only paying 4 places, with no extra place concessions from the usual suspects. However, a few smaller bookmakers — Boylesports, Spreadex, 10Bet, and Sporting Index — are paying 5 places, so they’re the obvious option for those looking for a bit of extra place insurance (if you can get on).

With that in mind, I’ve deliberately gone looking for a horse at a bigger price who could outrun his odds, and the one I’ve landed on is ARCTIC GREY.

It’s interesting to note that he was entered for the Group 3 Jersey Stakes on Saturday, but trainer Richard Hannon has instead opted for this handicap — possibly believing the horse is well treated off a mark of 91. For context, to win the Jersey he’d have needed to run to around 116 RPR, which is a big jump — so this route may be a sign they think he’s got more to come in handicaps.

His record stands at 121, with the only defeat coming to Roger Varian’s 1/3F Sallaal, who hasn’t been seen since but looked useful. The third in that race, beaten 3.5 lengths, has since come out and won, boosting the form.

On handicap debut last time, Arctic Grey showed a good turn of foot to beat the favourite over this 1-mile trip, and the 5lb rise could be on the lenient side if he’s still progressing.

All things considered, he looks a solid each-way shout at the price, especially with 5 places available if you shop around.

Arctic Grey 28/1 (0.5pt ew)

The form at the head of the market looks very strong in this 14-runner Group 3, with Detain (7/2), Jackknife (7/2), and Trinity College (7/2) all holding serious winning claims.

So, full transparency — the one I’m giving you here will do very well to win, but at 50/1, he looks a bit of value for 4 places.

GREAT DAVID, from the James Tate yard, is the selection.

He’s improved at 3, winning “readily” on his seasonal return over this 1m2f trip at Nottingham by 4.25 lengths, before finishing a solid 3rd of 7 in a valuable Listed contest at Chester six weeks ago.

That day, I think he used up too much petrol early, trying to force the pace from a wide draw in stall 7 — and paid the price late on. He finished around 3 lengths behind the re-opposing High Stock (13/2), but that gap could close today.

He’s had six weeks off, should be fitter on his third run of the season, and if ridden with more restraint — likely reverting to hold-up tactics — I can see him outrunning his price.

Betfred, Bet365, Unibet, BetVictor, Boylesports, Sky Bet, and Paddy Power are all paying 4 places, so they’re the obvious firms to go with.

Great David 40/1 (0.5pt ew)

We finish Day 3 with a typically wide-open 29-runner handicap, and the fact there are three joint-favourites at 6/1 tells you everything you need to know. Once again, I’ve gone looking for a horse at a bigger price who I think represents solid each-way value.

Bookmakers are paying between 4 and 7 places, so it’s vital to shop around and check with your bookie before placing any bets.

The selection is APIARIST, a 4-year-old gelding who’s had a productive All-Weather campaign, winning three times since December. He posted a career-best RPR of 104 when scoring over this 7f trip in a Class 2 at Southwell back in February.

The key question is whether he can translate that form to turf — and that’s likely why we’re getting such a generous price. But if he can, he looks tailor-made for a strongly-run, stiff 7f at Ascot.

Adam Ryan, assistant trainer, said:

“He’s had a great campaign on the all-weather, and a strongly run seven furlongs would be ideal. He’s got a nice turn of foot, so hopefully things could play out in his favour.”

If the race pans out as hoped, he looks to have an each-way squeak, and with 6 or 7 places available, he’s worth backing each-way at the price.

Apiarist 18/1 (0.5pt ew)