Ginger Joe reviews Mydaddypaddy's hurdling debut at Carlise and assesses his value as the Supreme Novices' Hurdle favourite.
We have a new 7/1 favourite for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle after Mydaddypaddy cruised to a smooth four-length victory on his hurdling debut at Carlisle, but how much is that really worth?
He came into the season with a big reputation, having won his sole bumper start at Huntingdon in impressive style, and that was a performance that quickly caught the public’s attention. Since then, it’s mostly been hype, until yesterday.
Mydaddypaddy showed all the right credentials for a genuine two-miler. There’s no doubt in my mind about which trip he’ll excel over, it’s just the substance of the race that raises questions to me.
Aside from the runner up, the field lacked depth, so while he was always expected to justify his short 1/2 price tag, he didn’t have a great deal to beat at the same time.
He did at least account for the right rival beating the clear danger on paper, but even that horse’s bumper form lacks genuine substance, which makes it hard to assess the true value of this win.
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Visually though, the winner looked the real deal. He travelled beautifully through the soft ground and jumped superbly for a hurdling debutant, especially in the testing conditions.
He was pinpoint accurate at every flight, and the Race IQ data backed that up with an 8/10 score for jumping. Now, I don’t usually pay much attention to those figures, but in this case they just support the eye test. He was very slick, balanced, and jumped like a smart horse from start to finish.
He’s also well-bred, being by Walk In The Park out of the talented mare Debdebdeb, so there’s plenty to like on paper as well as on the track. Still, caution is very much warranted though in my opinion.
The form isn’t strong, and the new 7/1 quote for the Supreme feels a little short based on what we’ve seen.
There are plenty of Irish novices and probably a few in England who could have produced something similar against that particular level of opposition.
| 2026 Supreme Novices' Hurdle Winner | Best Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Mydaddypaddy | 9/1 | betway |
| Bambino Fever | 12/1 | Widely available |
| Place De La Nation | 16/1 | Widely Available |
| Love Me Tender | 20/1 | Sky Bet & Paddy Power |
| Jeroboam Machin | 25/1 | Widely Available |
| Port Authority | 25/1 | Betfred |
| Kanzler | 25/1 | Widely Available |
| Doctor Du Mesnil | 25/1 | bet365 |
| Davy Crockett | 25/1 | |
| El Cairos | 25/1 | Widely Available |
Odds last updated at 11:00am, Tuesday 11th November.
There’s no doubt Mydaddypaddy is a talented horse with the right tools, but before we label him a Supreme contender, I’d personally like to see him tested against stronger company rather than a field where only one rival had even modest credentials.
That’s not to knock the winner though, he ticks every box so far, but from a betting perspective, it’s too early and too risky to get involved at current prices.
It’s great to see a potentially smart one this side of the water, and he really does look every inch a proper two-miler, but I think it’s risky business getting carried away at the price at this time of the season.
VERDICT: Mydaddypaddy (Supreme Novices' Hurdle) - NO BET
