Free Horse Racing Tips: Jake Price’s Best Bets for Saturday at Haydock & Ascot

12:08 Haydock – Newton Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) – 2m

Since the Newton Novices’ Hurdle changed to a Grade 2 in 2023 is has been quite a weak race, and you’d probably have to say that this year’s renewal is the best of the trio. Masked Man is a deserving favourite having won easily at Chepstow 43 days ago, but he did steal five lengths at the start that day, and has not been seen again since due to a slight setback. If he is A1 then I am sure he will run well again here, but that could be a big if.

The other market leader is Sticktotheplan, who is another standard setter having landed the Grade 2 Persian War Novices’ Hurdle on the same day at Chepstow. You would have to question how strong that race was though with zero subsequent winners emerging from the race, and he has to shoulder the burden of a 5lbs penalty on ground as soft as he is going to want it.

That leads me nicely onto DOUBLE MEASURE for the Skelton team, and at a bigger price I think he is the one worth chancing. This Bumper winner made his debut also at Chepstow on the 5th November, and that was during the period where almost all of Dan Skelton’s Novices were making their hurdles debuts with plenty left to be worked upon – and gentle introductions were very much the order of the day.

Had Harry Skelton used his stick that day then perhaps this 5yo would have gone on to win the race as he travelled supremely well, but under what was very much an educational ride he ended up finishing 0.75 lengths behind The Blue Room – who himself is a talented horse for the Olly Murphy yard. Clearly a horse who possesses a lot of speed, this race was instantly mapped out as his next target, and I think a track like Haydock with the long straight will suit him well.

DOUBLE MEASURE 1pt Win @ 7/2

13:30 Ascot - 1965 Chase (Grade 2) - 2m5f

This is a brilliant 5 runner race, and it could be a bit of a pace burn-up with both Il Est Francais and Pic D’Orhy lining up. The former only knows one way in going forward, and Paul Nicholls’ 10yo has made all on both his previous starts at Ascot – so the race very much could end up being set up for a closer.

Jango Baie would be the obvious port of call in that regard considering his Arkle win in such similar fashion, but the issue with him here is that the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day is seemingly his big target for the season – so just how wound up he will be for this has to be a question mark.

Instead then the one I want to be with is GIDLEIGH PARK for Harry Fry, who is still only having his 4th ever Chase start here. Last season started with disaster when a fibrillating heart issue cropped up at Kempton, but upon his return in at Windsor in January for the Grade 2 Lightning Novices’ Chase he put in a brilliant performance to beat Caldwell Potter by 4 lengths.

He rounded off his season with another fantastic effort at Aintree in April for the Grade 1 Manifesto Novices’ Chase, where he again ended up having to take up the running from a long way out on sufferance. Impaire Et Passe (163) swept through to win that day, but to Gidleigh’s credit he stuck to his task gamely to clinch second place ahead of Jango Baie. Harry Fry said in an interview the other day that a strong gallop they can sit off will suit his Horse well, and I think he could be the one to pick up the pieces here.

GIDLEIGH PARK 1pt Win @ 9/2

14:05 Ascot – Berkshire National Handicap Chase (Class 2) - 3m5½f

Joe Tizzard has been on fire lately and is currently operating at a 31% strike rate, with the majority of his Horses coming on for their first run. One who very much looked like he will do just that is ROCK MY WAY, who has got plenty of talent and should finally have a race which suits him right down to the ground.

This 7yo only joined the Tizzard’s in January following a disappointing effort when trained by Anthony Charlton, but on just his second start he ran a belter at the Cheltenham Festival to take 2nd place in the National Hunt Chase behind Haiti Couleurs (154). That effort saw him sent off an 8/1 chance for the Scottish National at Ayr in April, but that 4m trip seemed to just stretch him that bit too far – as he travelled up well into a position to challenge at the top of the straight, before fading and just plugging on into 5th place.

He underwent wind surgery over the Summer to ensure no stone was left unturned, and he returned at Cheltenham in October for the competitive 3m1f Handicap Chase. His SP that day of 11/1 tells you everything you need to know however as it was right in the middle of a baron spell for the trainer where everything was needing the run, and he ran exactly like that was the case when weakening before the penultimate flight. Dropped 2lbs to a mark of 131, he’s now 1lb lower than when running in the National Hunt Chase, and he returns to what should be a perfect 3m5½f trip.

ROCK MY WAY 1pt Win @ 7/2

14:25 Haydock - Stayers Handicap Hurdle (Premier) - 3m½f

One of my ‘handicappers to follow’ going into this season was MA SHANTOU, so it was very satisfying to see him absolutely bolt up in the Pertemps Qualifier at Cheltenham in October – with Harry Cobden only having to use hands and heels to push him out to a 2.75 length success. He’s since been raised 9lbs to a mark of 138, but if you added that weight to him at Cheltenham he still would have won, so surely he has to be extremely competitive here.

Whilst I am certainly not comparing ability, Paisley Park had an extremely similar profile in 2018, as after he disappointed in the Albert Bartlett he won a Handicap off a mark of 140 before then coming here off 147 and getting the job done. He ended up being a proper Grade 1 horse, and whilst Ma Shantou still has a while to go to get to that sort of level, a win here would certainly lay down a marker that he is worth trying in that sort of company going forward.

The ground has come up perfect for him on Saturday as he does seem to act really well on Good to Soft – but most importantly it is not going to be the gruelling stamina test that this race can so often end up being. Hopefully there is still plenty of improvement left to come, and if there is then he could take some beating here.

MA SHANTOU 1.5pts Win @ 5/1

15:15 Ascot - Hurst Park Handicap Chase (Premier) - 2m1f

The Haldon Gold Cup just never happened for JPR ONE 15 days ago, and whilst I didn’t have the same sort of fitness concerns for him first time up as I did for Rock My Way, he simply never got

involved. Fair play to Thistle Ask who made all and jumped tremendously, but this lad essentially had a racecourse gallop around Exter when a distant 3rd place – and as such I think he is primed to run a big race this weekend.

Dropped 2lbs for that run to a mark of 151, he now finds himself rated only 2lbs higher than when winning the Haldon Gold Cup 12 months ago – and since then he’s also ran some really decent races in Graded contests, including a 4th place finish in the Grade 2 Game Spirit Chase despite having to give weight to the whole field.

Amazingly he has never ran at Ascot before but it certainly looks like a track which should suit him well considering he has won four times at right-handed tracks, and the better ground will certainly be a positive as he acts on it well. Another really interesting move is that connections have reached for first-time cheekpieces, which should just help to sharpen him up and keep him in touch with the leaders. I can see him travelling really powerfully into this contest, and hopefully he goes and gets the job done.

JPR ONE 1pt Win @ 11/2

15:35 Haydock - Handicap Chase (Class 2) - 3m1½f

My final selection on a busy Saturday comes in the finale at Haydock, where by far the most intriguingT prospect is SHOMEN UCHI for the Sam Thomas stable. This lad is 8 now but has only ever had 6 runs under rules, such is the difficulty of keeping him sound – but hopefully they can get a clear run with him now, as he is an extremely talented individual.

In March 2023 he absolutely bolted up in a 2m7½f Maiden Hurdle at Chepstow, but afterwards he would not be seen for a massive 701 days until making his Chase debut at Carlisle back in February. That day he ran in a 2m4f Novices’ Chase where he was in receipt of a bit of weight, but he jumped like an absolute bunny under Dylan Johnston, and stayed on strongly to score by 2.5 lengths back to Lunar Discovery and the odds-on favourite Butch (141).

That was clearly a very impressive start to life over fences and highlights the talent he possesses, and that is only enhanced by the fact that connections have Welsh National aspirations with him. Having won his Novice in February however it does mean he is no longer a Novice, and as such he is able to run in Handicap Chases without having to have had 3 starts in order to qualify for a mark. That means he gets to run here off a mark of 135, and considering his talent, it could very much underestimate him. With the issues they have in keeping him sound, I’d imagine that every time they get him to the track they are going to want to see him run to the best of his abilities.

SHOMEN UCHI 1pt Win @ 9/2