Jake Price is back with his four best bets for Saturday's action, including a win bet in the Festive Handicap Hurdle.
13:50 Ascot
Tip 1: BAD - 1pt Win
Best odds of 9/2 widely available when publishing.
I was a little worried on Thursday that perhaps too much rain had fallen at Ascot for horses who prefer better ground, but after watching the racing on Friday, that certainly does not appear to be the case. With the track set to continue drying out into Saturday, surely BAD will take all the beating here for the bang in-form Ben Pauling team.
To be honest I will confess that I have not always been a fan of this youngster who has always been surrounded by hype going back to his days as a Juvenile Hurdler, but his authoritative performance at Kempton on seasonal reappearance in October at Kempton off a mark of 138 leads me to believe there is still more to come from him. Last time out he ran in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase at Cheltenham in what was very much an experiment to see if he could be a Cheltenham horse, and whilst ultimately he probably proved he isn’t, a 5th place finish in that company when only beaten 7 lengths by Panic Attack was a perfectly acceptable effort.
Going back to a flat, right-handed track on better ground should provide him with ideal conditions however, and the fact that the handicapper dropped him 1lb to a mark of 144 for that Cheltenham effort is also a help to his chances. You’d imagine that he has been primed for this Howden Handicap Chase too, considering he is owned by the CEO of Howden Mr David Howden.
14:13 Hereford
Tip 2: ALFIE's PRINCESS - 0.5pts Each-Way
Best odds of 11/2 with bet365 when publishing.
The Sam Thomas bandwagon keeps rolling on this season, and I am excited to see ALFIE’S PRINCESS return to action as she looks every bit a proper Chasing Mare, and is surely well handicapped after missing last season having jarred up on ground quicker than ideal. With all the rain this week the ground at Hereford is now Soft, and that should provide ideal conditions for her return.
This Irish point-to-point winner was a very useful Novice Hurdler in the 2023/24 season, winning at Chepstow and Exeter before then finishing 5th in the Listed Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at Haydock which is being run this weekend. She was third behind Jingko Blue (151) and Titan Discovery (133) on handicap debut at Sandown, but on her next start at Newbury in the Grade 2 Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle Final she ran a cracker for second place behind the now 17lbs higher rated All The Glory (132).
Connections were excited for her to go over fences last season, and when starting out at Ffos Las in October over 2m5½f she was sent off 15/8f to get the job done. Despite jumping notably well and staying on strongly to the line she was narrowly denied by Smiling Getaway (126) who had first run, but overall, it was an eye-catching start over fences and would have been a great platform to build upon. Unfortunately that opportunity has not transpired until now, but connections have very much been patient in waiting for soft ground. She’s still well handicapped off a mark of 119, and I think she can improve for the step-up in trip to 3m1f.
14:25 Ascot
Tip 3: HONESTY POLICY - 1pt Win
5/2 best odds widely available when publishing.
My selection in the Long Walk Hurdle will come as no surprise to those of you who read my first Cheltenham Festival Ante-Post column on Wednesday, as I put forward HONESTY POLICY as an early selection for the Stayers Hurdle in the hope that he can lay down a big marker against the best the British have to offer in this division on Saturday.
Last season this 5yo didn’t even jump a Hurdle until January, but in the short space of 3 months we went from Naas Maiden Hurdle 2nd to an Aintree Grade 1 winner. That performance in the Mersey Novices’ Hurdle over 2m4f was that of a proper stayer, as despite being off the bridle before most, he stuck to his task really gamely down the outside of the field to beat the much more prominently ridder Regent’s Stroll (143) by half a length.
Stepping up in trip to 3m at the Punchestown Festival just 25 days later for another Grade 1 Novice Hurdle, this JP McManus recruit then went and put in his best performance of the season – running a gallant race in second when only half a length behind Willie Mullins’ Albert Bartlett winner Jasmin De Vaux (150). Had that Horse not going injured he himself was very well fancied for a Stayers Hurdle, but with Gordon Elliott’s horse being a whole year younger, surely there is plenty more improvement to come this campaign.
The crop of British Stayers Hurdle horses is very uninspiring, and the one I have most respect for is newcomer Impose Toi – but he also came into this season rated 148 having spent the past 3 years or so in Handicap Hurdles at differing trips. When you combine that with the fact that connections continually ride him like he barely gets this 3m trip, surely our JP McManus horse has much more upside.
15:35 Ascot
Tip 4: WILFUL - 1pt Win
5/1 best odds widely available when publishing.
The big shut-down of the Jonjo and AJ O’Neill yard for the majority of November has caused plenty of uncertainty surrounding their runners now that the show is back on the road, but from a pure handicapping point of view their candidate here WILFUL has to be a bet – as without the external circumstances I am sure he would be much shorter in the betting than he is.
This 6yo enjoyed a fruitful Spring with a victory at Ayr followed by a narrow defeat at the Punchestown Festival, but it was his run in the Welsh Champion Hurdle which really highlights him as a well handicapped horse. The idea that day was to go to Chepstow in order to have a prep-run for the Greatwood Hurdle, but despite that plan he absolutely tanked his way into the contest. Once the Celtic Dino (147) bird had flown Jonjo O’Neill got stuck into him, and off the bridle he closed the gap right back down again towards the line – only beaten 3.75 lengths in the end.
What makes that form even better however is the subsequent exploits of Alexei, who split the aforementioned pair in second place at Chepstow when in receipt of 7lbs from our selection. Such was the manor of his two subsequent victories however, Alexei is now rated 20lbs higher – so WILFUL will be 19lbs better off at the weights at Ascot despite there only being 1.5 lengths between them in a race which was only supposed to be a preparation for a future target. Due to the questions marks around the yard, he will have to be a win only proposition on this occasion – but if all is well, he would have an unbelievable chance back at a track where he has proven to act well.
