R2C's Analysis of the Dublin Racing Festival's Grade One Races

The weather has been rotten but nothing can dampen the enthusiasm ahead of this weekend’s Dublin Racing Festival and it should hopefully be a fantastic couple of days at Leopardstown.

While the ground will undoubtedly be testing, it is often an informative weekend with a view to the Cheltenham Festival and it is now arguably the dominant ‘trial’ for March.

Declarations will be made later in the week but initial entries are out and I’ve had a look at the eight Grade 1s, landing on a selection for each top-level event.

Without further ado, here are my thoughts on this weekend’s action – starting with the opening Grade 1 of the meeting, the 2m6f Nathaniel Lacy Solicitors Novice Hurdle.

Day 1 Races

Nathaniel Lacy Solicitors Novice Hurdle (2m6f)

12 remain in contention for the 2m6f novice hurdle and DOCTOR STEINBERG heads the market. His form is working out reasonably well, with Thedeviluno winning the Grade 2 River Don Novices Hurdle at Doncaster, and he will be Paul Townend’s ride if declared to line up on Saturday afternoon.

SANTO SOSPIR is an interesting runner given he is 3-4 under rules and ‘heavy’ was in the official going description for all three of his victories. He’s a best priced 15/2 at the time of writing and he could be the play from an each way perspective, particularly if he is the choice of Jack Kennedy.

A similar type on paper, KAZANSKY is 2-3 under rules and he showed immense staying power to grind out the victory in the Grade 2 Defender Novice Hurdle at Limerick over Christmas. Danny Gilligan was on board that day and he could retain the partnership if Kennedy opts for the stablemate.

LOVE ME TENDER could line up for JP McManus but he was slightly disappointing over Christmas and this is a big step up in trip. Always labelled as a horse that could improve once going further, he is a potential player in this race given he is the sole green and gold entry.

Ante-post selection: Santo Sospir each way (15/2)

NARCISO HAS heads the market and he sets the standard on form. He was beaten fair and square by MANGE TOUT at Fairyhouse but there were fitness doubts over the Willie Mullins runner that day and he produced a much more accomplished performance at Leopardstown over Christmas.

The mare looks a pacey type and I wonder if the heavy ground will blunt her speed. It’ll be interesting to see how she stacks up against Narciso Has this time around, and there might be a better way of betting this race than by focusing on the top two in the market.

Whispers suggest that Paul Townend will ride SELMA DE VARY and she coped very well in heavy conditions at Auteuil in October. It’s a bit of a fact-finding mission and she will either sink or swim – and there are several shrewd judges out there who fancy her to go close this weekend.

I like the chances of BERTUTEA but you’d have to wonder if he’ll be running with the Fred Winter in mind. While the form of his Limerick win wouldn’t exactly set the world on fire, he could be one to run a nice race and I wouldn’t write him off if one or two of the protagonists fail to fire.

Ante-post selection: Bertutea each way (14/1)

A tough race to weigh up. KOPEK DES BORDES is the class act in the field but he’s been off the track since November and I’m not entirely sure if he wants a slog on soft ground on his first run since minor surgery. If he’s A1 and he lines up, he’ll be very difficult to beat but I wouldn’t be advising him at his current price.

It sounds like ROMEO COOLIO runs here and he’s the right favourite on chase form. A two-time Grade 1 winner over fences, he’s by no means an out-and-out two miler but he is a supreme jumper and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him bowl along in front in a bid to make it a test of stamina.

On the flip side of the coin, KARGESE is a proper two-miler and speed is her greatest asset.She has some top class form in the book, behind the likes of Majborough, Sir Gino and State Man while she won two Grade 1s as a juvenile. She recorded a good time at Leopardstown over Christmas and must be taken seriously if she lines up.

IRISH PANTHER is likely to be declared for Saturday and he gave Romeo Coolio a real scare at Christmas so he’s an interesting runner at the prices. Probably being slightly overlooked ahead of declarations, it’s a shame there are only six entries as there are just two places available for each way backers.

Ante-post selection: Kargese to win (4/1)

All eyes are on GALOPIN DES CHAMPS as he bids for a fourth Irish Gold Cup. His Savills run was huge and normal progression would give him a great chance of emulating Florida Pearl.

HAITI COULEURS deserves huge credit for taking his chance, but he wouldn’t be for me.

Savills winner AFFORDALE FURY is a likely runner and we’ll learn more about his Gold Cup credentials here. He’s hard to assess but not one to dismiss.

I’m a big fan of GAELIC WARRIOR, though there are Leopardstown doubts. Instead, it may be safer to side with stablemate I AM MAXIMUS, who ran a huge race when second at Christmas.

Ante-post selection: Galopin Des Champs to win (5/4)

Day 2 Races

Ladbrokes Novice Chase (2m5f)

FINAL DEMAND is a short price to add another Grade 1 to his collection and this could end up being a very small field. Touted as a future Cheltenham Gold Cup horse, it would be a huge shock to see him turned over and he could just prove better than his peers in the staying novice chase division.

With stablemates KITZBUHEL and JIMMY DU SEUIL also entered in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices Chase at Sandown Park, it’ll be interesting to see how many darts Willie Mullins throws at this race. Cast your minds back to the 2024 renewal and we ended up with just two runners going to post.

The one who I suppose is interesting from a place perspective is KAID D’AUTHIE. He was given a tentative ride the first day but produced a much more accomplished effort at Fairyhouse on New Year’s Day. It’ll be interesting to see how he fares given this is his third chase start and would therefore qualify him for a handicap.

Looking away from the Willie Mullins runners, I’d be surprised if WESTERN FOLD turned up given he prefers better ground. KALA CONTI looks booked for Sandown while ROMEO COOLIO is more likely to line up in the Irish Arkle. It’s slim pickings in the race and there’s no real standout ante-post price for me.

Ante-post selection: No bet

Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle (2m)

A competitive-looking race and TALK THE TALK heads the market. It looked like he was coming to win the Grade 1 at Christmas before falling at the final hurdle and he’s a top prospect going forward. But is he value at 11/8 in this field? I’m not entirely convinced so let’s look at some of his market rivals.

BALLYFAD’s form received a welcome boost when Leader D’Allier won at Punchestown on Monday and he looks a proper horse to my eye. He will undoubtedly stay further but he has the speed to kick on off a decent gallop and put lengths on his rivals and he has a great chance of being in the mix on Saturday.

I’d say KING RASKO GREY is a good horse but I’m not entirely sure he is a two-miler and I wanted to see him entered in the 2m6f race. If he lines up here, it’ll be a good test of his speed and he could end up being one for the Turners Novices Hurdle – though he may be able to stick to two miles with plenty of cut in the ground.

One at a massive price is KOKTAIL BRUT. He had a genuine excuse the last day and he’s a 66/1 chance but he won a Royal Bond with ‘soft’ in the going description and he’s worth an each way play for me. I certainly wouldn’t be assessing him on his previous run and he can hopefully go close for Gordon Elliott.

Ante-post selection: Ballyfad to win (3/1)

Barry Connell said on Tuesday that he will be keeping an eye on the ground for his stable star MARINE NATIONALE and the current ante-post favourite is no certainly to line up for the race. With that in mind, it may prove prudent to look down the betting for a horse that is not only a likely runner but is tried and tested on soft ground.

MAJBOROUGH has form on heavy ground and he is the obvious one, but he’s blotted his copybook on two occasions this season. He isn’t the most reliable type though one must admit that he appeared to improve in the jumping department the last day and it might be third time lucky for him on Sunday afternoon.

Looking at SOLNESS and his previous form on soft ground, you’d find it quite difficult to trust him as well while FOUND A FIFTY found himself beaten 18 lengths by Majborough at Christmas and it’s hard to see him reversing that form. The former clearly enjoys the test that Leopardstown brings though so should be bang in contention once again.

If ENERGUMENE is going to win another Grade 1, then this is it. He’ll get his ground, he has fitness on his side and he probably won’t need to run to a huge figure to at least be competitive in the race. At the time of writing, one firm are going 12/1 and three places and I’d be more than happy to advise that.

Ante-post selection: Energumene each way (12/1)

Last but certainly no means least, we have the Irish Champion Hurdle. We probably have to start with LOSSIEMOUTH and you’d imagine victory on Sunday will see her book her ticket for the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham in March. But does she have what it takes to get the job done? Only time will tell.

I was hugely taken with BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD in the December Hurdle and one would hope that she improves significantly for the run. She’s always been held in high regard at Cullentra and she produced a career-best performance at Leopardstown in December 2024. She is the main danger on paper.

Willie Mullins has kept a plethora of potentials in at the forfeit stage and the likes of EL FABIOLO, BALLYBURN and PONIROS are all tricky to weigh up. The former looked like the force of old when winning on his return to hurdles at Punchestown while Ballyburn is on a redemption mission after a disappointing effort at Christmas.

Could a return to two miles be on the cards? Who knows. With Willie Mullins, anything can happen. And on that note – could Poniros be thrown into the deep end on his first start of the season? You’d have to say it is unlikely but I wouldn’t write it off as the Closutton master looks to confirm his Champion Hurdle squad.

Ante-post selection: Brighterdaysahead to win (6/4)