Ginger Joe gives his early thoughts on one of the toughest races to call at Cheltenham Festival.
A Race Clouded in Uncertainty
When you scan through the Graded races at this season’s Cheltenham Festival, the Ryanair is probably the trickiest to get a handle on right now. The big issue is that we simply don’t know who’s going to line up. A number of those towards the head of the market are also prominent in the Gold Cup betting, and until the final line up is confirmed, it’s hard to be certain who goes where. That lack of clarity makes it a tough race to properly assess at this stage.
That said, we’ll go through the leading contenders one by one and try to piece together a clearer picture of what the potential line up might look like. One thing worth mentioning before we dive into the betting is that the non-runner money back concession could be a smart angle in a race as open as this. That said, it’s important not to get carried away with it either. The simplest way to look at it is this. If the race were tomorrow, would you still back the horse at the non-runner money back price? If the answer is yes, then it’s a bet. If not, you’re probably just convincing yourself because of the safety net.
Jonbon – A New Trip, A New Angle
On to the runners, and we’ll start with 11-time Grade 1 winner Jonbon at 5/1. He was seen this weekend winning the Ascot Chase over 2m5f, and to my eye he looked far more comfortable at that trip. I’m not totally convinced he’s sharp enough for two miles anymore, and in what could turn into a smaller-field Ryanair, he’d have to come into the reckoning somewhat. Whether he’d be good enough to win it is another question, but this step up in trip does feel like it increases his chance of getting the job done at Cheltenham. It’s not guaranteed he comes here though, and Nicky Henderson may yet decide to roll the dice over two miles one last time, but on what we’re seeing now, his profile looks more suited to 2m5f.
Fact To File – Gold Cup Temptation
JP McManus also holds a strong hand with last year’s winner Fact To File, currently around 9/4 to repeat the feat. All season I’ve felt the Ryanair was his most likely target again, but it’s impossible to ignore how much he improved to win the Irish Gold Cup at the Dublin Racing Festival. That performance will surely bring the Cheltenham Gold Cup into serious consideration. The stamina question still lingers though, and it’s important not to be fooled too easily here. He didn’t look entirely comfortable at Kempton in the King George over three miles, and he was outstayed in last year’s Irish Gold Cup too. In truth, until he won this season’s renewal, we weren’t even certain he fully stayed the three mile trip. So while the temptation to go for the Gold Cup must be strong, there’s still every right to have reservations about him seeing it out up the Cheltenham hill in March. That said, he was deeply impressive at Leopardstown, and you certainly couldn’t write him off on the back of that performance.
Gaelic Warrior – Ryanair or Gold Cup?
Gaelic Warrior is currently trading just about favourite for the Ryanair at 2/1, but I wouldn’t be convinced that he is a Ryanair horse myself. He is of course classy enough to win over the trip, but I think his best performance could still come at Cheltenham over the longer trip. He was awesome to outstay Fact To FIle in the John Durkan, and his runner up effort at the Dublin Racing Festival behind Fact To File can be marked up heavily considering Gaelic Warrior clearly doesn’t like the track there. Everything for Gaelic Warrior in my mind is all gearing up for a huge Gold Cup performance. That’s just my view though, and ultimately I wouldn’t be surprised if they ran in either race, as there is plenty of logic for both angles.
Betano Sportbook
The Supporting Cast
Heart Wood currently best priced at 8/1, has become a real wise guys horse for this year’s renewal, but I don’t think it is fully warranted. The uncertainty around other runners in the race has made him open for discussion of course, but just because he is definitely going to go for this race, does not make him a bet. You have to take him on his best form too. When you look at what he has achieved, where is he going to find the gap to reverse form with the likes of Gaelic Warrior and Fact To File, I just don’t see it. He is a very credible horse and a sure fire graded animal, but the improvement doesn’t look like it is going to just appear out of the blue to allow him to reverse the form with the top two in the betting, bar accident. I think he will come up a bit short here.
Found A Fifty is in a similar position to Heart Wood. We know he is a good horse on his day, but he is always just half a level below the top two, and it’s hard to make a case for him reversinng that form, especially when he has been beat on all occasions he has been to at Cheltenham. Protektorat, a previous winner for the race would have to put in a special performance to win the race this year, and that is unlikely at his age, but he deserves full respect in this line up as a former champion.
Could The Gold Cup Change Everything?
Everything further down in the betting is hard to make a case for, but when you look at how shallow this race could turn out to be, then you have to look at the Gold Cup and question whether any of the runners there could make a late switch into the Ryanair. If one is to do that though, who would if be? Well personally I don’t see it being The Jukebox Man, as he looks a real contender for the Gold Cup, and he doesn’t look like he will benefit from the drop back in trip. If he did drop back, he would have some sort of chance of course, but when you compare him to other horses that could drop back, this big gelding looks unlikely to be the one to make the move. He is built like a Gold Cup horse, and it’s highly likely that The Jukebox Man goes for Gold!
Jango Baie however could be much more interesting. He doesn’t look sure to see out the Gold Cup trip, and a drop back to the middle distance with his finishing speed could be an ideal move. He is similar to Fact To File in the sense that they both jump well, and both have a strong finishing speed, the exact credentials you would opt for to win a Ryanair. If he came back to the trip, which looks a possibility, he would be in with a great chance, and the 6/1 non runner money back offer on him, would certainly be of interest to me.
Verdict at This Stage
Ultimately, the picture is wide open, and it may be a case of who switches first, but if I was pushed right now as to who I see as the most likely Ryanair winner at this time, I think I would just give the edge to Fact To File, and I think Jango Baie will switch, and finish second. I think having Galopin Des Champs and Gaelic Warrior in a Gold Cup is plenty of ammunition for Willie Mullins, and if you can get Fact To File in the Ryanair, as we already know he is the best in that middle distance division, then he would be the bet in the race. It’s all completely up for debate at this point though, and not long until it all unfolds!
