We have combined the four biggest market movers today to make a 2078/1 Lucky 15.
- Mount Ruapehu - 13:43 Southwell
- West Of Carrig - Navan 16:17
- Ayyadieh - 16:30 Bangor
- Sea Suite - Southwell 17:43
Our Saturday Lucky 15 is a best price of 2078/1 with Unibet at the time of publishing.
1pt each way advised.
13:43 Southwell
Mount Ruapehu - 13:43 Southwell
Best Original Odds: 15/2
Shortest Live Odds: 4/1
Swing: 41%
Best Price: 5/1
Mount Ruapehu appeals as the one to side with after a solid course-and-distance win here last time, when he came from well off the pace to get up late.
He has been nudged up just 2lb for that success, which looks lenient enough given the manner in which he finished his race, and this is still only his third start for Iain Jardine, so there is every chance there is more to come from him for his new yard.
The handicap rise looks far more manageable than that of Tuscan Point, who is effectively 15lb higher than for his win on the same card once his rider’s claim is factored in. Mount Ruapehu also holds solid form through Bullington Bry, who was back in third that day, and he looks well placed to follow up.
16:17 Navan
West Of Carrig - Navan 16:17
Best Original Odds: 25/1
Shortest Live Odds: 7/1
Swing: 62%
Best Price: 15/2
West Of Carrig makes plenty of appeal at the prices given the strength of the market move behind him and his profile suggests there could be more to come back up in trip.
A winner of a chase and five point-to-points, he has already shown he is more than comfortable over staying distances, with his best form coming between 2m5f and 3m on ground ranging from good to soft to yielding-soft. His latest run can be marked up slightly too, as he finished third of 16 at Thurles over an inadequate 2m2f on soft ground, beaten 13 lengths by Quornofamonday, and that test may simply have been on the sharp side for him.
The fact he has been backed in from 25/1 into 15/2 is hard to ignore and suggests connections may feel conditions are in place for a much bigger showing. With proven stamina, solid chasing experience and significant market confidence behind him, West Of Carrig looks a lively contender.
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16:30 Bangor
Ayyadieh - 16:30 Bangor
Best Original Odds: 12/1
Shortest Live Odds: 7/2
Swing: 57%
Best Price: 9/2
Ayyadieh looks the one to take a chance on in what does not appear to be a particularly strong race, especially with market support suggesting much better is expected.
He remains unexposed after just five starts over hurdles and, in a contest where it may not take much winning, that potential for improvement could prove decisive. While his bare form leaves him with something to find, there are reasons to think he can step forward, particularly as he shapes like a horse who may yet do better than he has shown so far.
He was beaten 14 lengths when fourth of five behind Harry Lowes over 2m1f here on soft ground last month, but that run does not set an especially daunting standard and this looks the type of weak event where a lightly raced runner can take a step up. Golden Identity also has scope for progress, while Joeybottles is of some interest after wind surgery, but Ayyadieh is the one the market appears to have latched onto and he could be ready to justify that confidence.
17:43 Southwell
Sea Suite - Southwell 17:43
Best Original Odds: 12/1
Shortest Live Odds: 9/2
Swing: 54%
Best Price: 5/1
Sea Suite is beginning to look dangerously well treated off a mark of 72 and this could be the time to catch him if the break has done him good.
His recent form figures do not leap off the page, but they have come in stronger races than this and there is enough in his profile to suggest he can bounce back. Most notably, his neck second of 13 at Sandown reads well in the context of a race like this, showing he retains the ability to be competitive when things fall right.
The Newmarket ninth was another below-par effort, but that came at the end of a string of modest runs and he has now been given four months off, which may have helped freshen him up. Back on the all-weather over 7f, conditions could suit much better, especially given his Sea The Stars pedigree, and Cieren Fallon is an eye-catching booking for a yard operating at a healthy 22% strike rate.
Off this reduced mark, Sea Suite does not need to improve much to get involved, and he looks capable of outrunning his price if returning in the same form as that Sandown effort.
